MLB Best Bets Today July 13:
The final Saturday of the first half is here and some teams may have their minds elsewhere with the All-Star Break on the horizon. Other teams will be fully focused and fully invested in hopes of banking another win or two before going their separate ways for a few days.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 13:
Cleveland Guardians (-115, 8) at Tampa Bay Rays
4:10 p.m. ET
The Guardians have experienced an offensive outage recently and the Rays may struggle a bit in today’s matchup, as Game 2 of this three-game weekend set features Zack Littell and Gavin Williams.
Cleveland ranks 24th in wOBA at .300 over the last 14 days and has just a .236/.306/.385 slash with a 95 wRC+. Many hitters are struggling all at once and I personally think that this is a tired team. The players said in a lot of media interviews that they’re treating every game like a playoff game and I think that max effort has caught up with them. The All-Star Break can’t come soon enough, as it feels like they’re just holding on for dear life.
Even Jose Ramirez has a .235/.291/.373 slash this month, as he seems to be showing some signs of slowing down. There are a lot of guys towards the bottom two-thirds of the order that are having difficulty right now and I don’t think a matchup at the Trop against Littell is all that promising.
Littell has a 4.44 ERA with a 4.26 xERA and a 3.66 FIP, but the home/road splits stand out. Away from Tampa, he’s allowed a .339/.372/.527 slash and a .388 wOBA over 42.1 innings. At home, however, he’s got a 3.57 ERA with a 3.37 FIP and has allowed a .250/.285/.392 slash with a .296 wOBA.
Williams flashed his plus stuff last time out against the Tigers with 5.1 shutout innings and five strikeouts. He limited hard contact and generated more swing and miss than he did in his return against the White Sox, where I think there were some jitters and extra-added pressure given the state of the Guardians rotation.
The Rays are 17th in wOBA over the last 14 days, but an 11% BB% is doing a lot of the heavy lifting there. Williams should be able to fill up the zone and generate a lot of whiffs against this Rays lineup.
Both bullpens are in decent shape and, as we know, Cleveland’s is among the best in baseball.
Pick: Guardians/Rays Under 8 (-118)
