MLB schedule today has 15 games
It is a stacked Saturday slate in the big leagues with all 30 teams in action and that 5-5-5 split that we’ve seen a lot recently. Five games in the NL, five in the AL, and five interleague matchups are on today’s docket and that gives us a lot to choose from across the MLB landscape.
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Only two of the games feature really early first pitches, but the majority of the card starts around 4 p.m. ET, so time is of the essence as always. Let’s dig into the Saturday slate.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 17 card (odds from DraftKings):
Miami Marlins (-170, 9) at Washington Nationals
Sandy Alcantara was not sharp again yesterday, but the Marlins came away with yet another one-run win as their bullpen outlasted Washington’s. The Marlins will send Braxton Garrett to the bump in this one and Washington is sending out Jake Irvin, so that’s why the Nationals are such a big underdog.
Garrett has a 4.10 ERA with a 3.65 FIP over 63.2 innings, but his 4.71 xERA is indicative of the contact quality against that he has allowed. His K/BB numbers are very strong, but he has allowed a 47.3% Hard Hit% on the year. He’s been able to offset that with a 13.6% SwStr% and a 25.7% K%. Garrett still has that 11-run start hanging around his neck against the Braves back on May 3 that skews all of his numbers.
In his seven starts since, he’s allowed 12 runs total with a 47/8 K/BB ratio. He’s still allowed some hard contact, but he’s racked up the punchouts. We’ll see if he’s able to do that here against a Nationals lineup that ranks fourth in batting average, ninth in wOBA, and third in K% against lefties. The Nationals have been really good at strikeout avoidance overall this season, so that may neutralize one of Garrett’s strengths.
If the Nationals had a better option, they’d send Irvin down. They skipped his most recent turn in the rotation, as he’s up to a 5.81 ERA with a 5.79 FIP and a 5.82 xERA in seven starts over 31 innings pitched. He’s got a 23/20 K/BB ratio and actually has even worse numbers in his last five starts with an 8.41 ERA and a 6.72 FIP. He’s given up at least four runs in four of his last five starts. Maybe some extra time to make adjustments will help, but it’s hard to fix things with a 5.3% SwStr% and a 97.2% Z-Contact%.
I’m giving a lot of thought to the over here on a warm day in D.C. Nationals Park plays better for hitters in the heat. I’m just worried about how much of the heavy lifting Miami will need to do since Garrett’s been excellent outside of that one start.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves (-300, 9.5)
Not much to say on this game. Bryce Elder is a heavy favorite for the Braves and, while I think he’s a noteworthy negative regression candidate, the Rockies aren’t really the type of team I want to back when looking for that situation. Elder has a 2.69 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and a 3.78 FIP in his 77 innings pitched. His 55.7% GB% is his best attribute, as he has a below average K% and an 83.3% LOB%.
Regression has found Elder in his last two starts with nine runs allowed on 12 hits over his last 11.1 innings of work. Prior to that, he had only allowed more than three runs once in 11 starts and had a 1.92 ERA with a 3.41 FIP. My hope here would be that he gets back on track and has a good start so that it will bump his value up a bit and I can look to go against him again after that.
Seabold has a 4.70 ERA with a 4.75 FIP after dealing in his revenge game against the Red Sox. He’s actually allowed just four runs on 11 hits in his last 17.1 innings pitched with 15 strikeouts against five walks, so he’s throwing the ball well. We’ll see if he can keep it up against Atlanta here.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-120, 8.5) at Milwaukee Brewers
The Buccos dug a 3-0 hole yesterday that they couldn’t climb out of, but they had a lot of chances against the Brewers bullpen, including the bases loaded in the ninth inning when Jason Delay struck out to end the game. The win for the Brewers flipped first place in the NL Central, but it could flip right back today with Mitch Keller on the bump for Pittsburgh.
Keller has a 3.41 ERA with a 3.30 xERA and a 3.26 FIP in his 87 innings of work this season. A huge K% bump of 8.1% has been a big part of the equation, along with a nice 2.3% decrease in BB%. For good measure, he’s also allowing just a 32.3% Hard Hit% on the year. He had a couple bumps with that against the Giants on May 31 and A’s on June 6 with 55.6% and 52.4% HH%, respectively, but he allowed just an 18.8% HH% to the Mets last time out. He’s on an extra day of rest here.
Keller had allowed 15 runs on 25 hits in his previous 17.1 innings, but worked seven innings of one-run, two-hit ball against the Mets in that last start, so it seems like he adjusted. Everything looks fine in terms of spin rate and velo, so I don’t think the issue was injury-related. Probably just a mechanical thing or natural variance.
Wade Miley returns after missing just over a month for the Brew Crew, as he comes in with a 3.67 ERA and a 4.79 FIP over 41.2 innings of work. He allowed a solo homer and faced seven batters on May 16 before leaving with a lat injury. He worked five innings in a rehab assignment and didn’t give up a run on four hits with five strikeouts and a walk.
The -120 at DK is the high line in the market, as you can find the Pirates at -110 or so at other shops. Pittsburgh is 10th in wOBA against LHP on the season at .335. It is their better split and they have a pitching matchup advantage in this one. Pittsburgh also has a much better offense this month and over the last several weeks.
Shop around for the best price, but I’m on the Pirates here.
Pick: Pirates -120
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets (-155, 9)
Kodai Senga and Adam Wainwright are the listed starters here, as the Mets lay a pretty decent price at Citi Field. Wainwright is still having a hard time getting into a rhythm this season, as he’s allowed at least three runs in all seven of his starts. He’s got a 5.79 ERA with a 4.43 FIP in 37.1 innings of work and only has 21 strikeouts out of 175 batters faced.
He has done a really good job over his last four starts of limiting hard contact, though, and he has just a 32.2% Hard Hit% for the season. That said, he has allowed 16 barrels and an 11.2% Barrel%, but six of them came in his May 18 start against the Dodgers. He’s just not missing many bats with a 6.1% SwStr% and has a .353 BABIP with a 63.4% LOB%. With a HH% like that, the BABIP should come down soon, as he’s allowed at least eight hits in five of his seven starts.
Senga’s rookie season continues to go pretty well overall. He has a 3.34 ERA with a 4.11 xERA and a 4.09 FIP over 64.2 innings of work. His 28.3% K% is awesome, but his 14.3% BB% is far from awesome. He’s walked at least four guys in seven of his 12 starts, but the high strikeout rate, a good ground ball rate, and the limiting of home runs has allowed Senga to pitch around most of the free passes. He has a 49% GB% and has only allowed seven home runs, with just two over his last eight starts.
Can’t say I see much of anything interesting or exciting here, as the Mets deserve to be a sizable favorite and the Cardinals continue to go in the wrong direction.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 8.5)
Yesterday’s game was crazy between the Giants and Dodgers. Rookie Emmet Sheehan worked six no-hit innings in his debut, but everything fell apart when he left the game, as the Dodgers pen gave up seven runs in the 7-5 loss. It took the Giants eight pitchers to secure the win, but they got it done and are only 1.5 games back of the Dodgers for second place in the NL West.
The Dodgers will look to a rookie again on Saturday, as Bobby Miller makes his fifth start of the season. The Giants will counter with veteran left-hander Alex Wood. Miller has been spectacular at the start of his young career with 23 strikeouts in 23 innings and just two runs allowed on 12 hits. He’s got an 0.78 ERA with a 2.41 xERA and a 2.19 FIP. Miller allowed one run in each of his first two starts and has worked six shutout innings in each of his last two.
He’s sitting nearly 99 with the fastball and has displayed a deep arsenal of secondary pitches. His Hard Hit% is just 38.6% with just three barrels allowed and an 11.8% SwStr%, which has been 16.3% and 13.5% in his last two starts against the Yankees and Phillies.
Wood comes off the IL for this start. He has a 4.80 ERA with a 4.32 xERA and a 4.57 FIP at the MLB level. He has an 11.4% BB%, which is always a red flag when going into a start against the Dodgers. This will be his first MLB appearance since May 31, but he’s already been on the IL twice. He only went three innings in his rehab appearance, so I wouldn’t expect much more than that today at the MLB level.
Given that the Giants used eight relievers yesterday, that seems like a concern. Five pitchers have worked two of the last three days and primary relievers Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers have worked three of the last five. I’d say that the Giants are in a pretty tough spot here with another short start likely coming from Wood and a tough assignment in Miller.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-190, 9)
It will be a Johnny Wholestaff sort of day for the Twins, who will start Jose De Leon and see how things go from there. De Leon has a 3.86 ERA with a 3.68 xERA and a 3.13 FIP in 14 innings as a reliever. He’s struck out 15 and walked four while pitching in low-leverage situations. He’s gone at least 1.1 innings in six of his 10 appearances, so he should be able to go more than an inning here to set the game up for the Twins.
Minnesota recalled left-hander Brent Headrick from Triple-A, so I’d assume that he’ll serve as the bulk reliever here. He has made three appearances at the MLB level this season with three runs allowed on four hits and 12 strikeouts over 8.1 innings. He had 52 K in 44.2 innings at Triple-A with a 4.23 ERA and a 4.05 FIP.
Detroit’s counter to Minnesota’s bullpen day is Joey Wentz, who has a 7.23 ERA with a 6.20 xERA and a 5.63 FIP in his 56 innings of work. Wentz has allowed 12 homers and still has a .335 BABIP against, even though HR don’t count towards BABIP. He’s mixed in a few good starts here and there, but he has a 45.4% Hard Hit% and an 11.4% Barrel% as a fly ball guy with really suspect command.
He is left-handed and the Twins have had issues against lefties this season, as they rank just 27th in wOBA in that split, but not all lefties are created equal and this one isn’t very good. Early start, so easy to bypass this game, but I don’t think there’s much of a betting opportunity anyway.
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (-115, 9)
Toronto will also take the Johnny Wholestaff approach today, which is what they’ve decided to do for now on days when Alek Manoah’s turn in the rotation pops up. They might as well make Trevor Richards the fifth starter, but he will at least start this one. Richards has a solid 3.30 ERA with a 2.95 xERA and a 3.77 FIP over 30 innings with one start and 21 relief appearances. He’s got a huge K% of 38.9%, but also a high BB% of 11.1%, so nearly half of his plate appearances end in a K or a BB.
Richards was the one who started last time out against the Twins and struck out seven over three masterful innings. Since May 19, Richards has only walked four of 52 batters faced, so it does seem like he’s kind of corrected that whole walk issue thing. Tim Mayza actually followed Richards with a righty-lefty setup in that last game and threw 1.1 scoreless innings before giving way to Bowden Francis, who was called up from Triple-A last weekend.
Mayza has pitched three straight days, so he’s out, but Francis, Mitch White, and Adam Cimber, who gave up six runs in that June 10 game, are all very fresh.
It will be Dane Dunning for the Rangers, as he comes in with a 2.76 ERA, 4.97 xERA, and a 3.84 FIP in 58.2 innings of work. Dunning has a 14.8% K% with a .268 BABIP against, despite a 41.9% Hard Hit%, so he’s gotten pretty fortunate on balls in play. It is worth pointing out that the Rangers do have an outstanding defense, but Dunning has definitely run on the right side of variance.
Over his last six starts, Dunning has a 45.9% Hard Hit% and a .324 BABIP, so it’s starting to set in. Furthermore, he’s allowed 11 runs in his last 15.2 innings, so the results are starting to fall in line as well. Righties hit him way better than lefties with a .304 wOBA compared to a .255 wOBA and righties have a .386 SLG compared to a .247 SLG. This should be a little bit better of a matchup for the Blue Jays than most teams, especially with Dunning building towards a pretty rough outing.
I don’t know what happens as the Jays get to the back end of the pen, but I like Richards over Dunning here and think Toronto is worth a 1st 5 wager.
Pick: Blue Jays 1st 5 (-105)
Los Angeles Angels (-165, 10) at Kansas City Royals
Griffin Canning and former Angel Mike Mayers are the listed starters for this one at Kauffman Stadium. Over his last five starts, Canning has a 3.07 ERA with a 4.67 FIP and a 3.80 xFIP in 29.1 innings pitched. He has 29 strikeouts against six walks, with the only blemish being that he has allowed six homers. The light finally came back on for Canning a few starts ago that he needs to throw fewer fastballs and he’s been a more effective pitcher as a result. I’d assume he keeps that going here against the Royals and maybe even mixes in more curveballs after throwing them under 10% of the time last start.
Canning has increased slider and changeup usage this season at the expense of the fastball, which is an excellent idea and something he should have done a while ago. His two worst starts of the season have come in his two starts with the highest fastball usage. I’d even throw less of them if I was him, but I’m not, so hopefully the Angels keep him on track.
Mayers has a 5.06 ERA with a 3.84 xERA and a 3.65 FIP in his 21.1 innings of work. He’s run very hard into a wall in his last two starts, as his low strikeout rates caught up with him. He’s allowed 11 runs (10 earned) on 16 hits in his last eight innings pitched with four walks against just two strikeouts. Mayers has only allowed a 33.3% Hard Hit% and one barrel, but he’s hovered around the 95 mph threshold in a few starts and has allowed a lot of batted balls in the 90-94 mph range.
As of now, Mayers is listed as the straight starter for this one. I’ll be waiting to see if the Royals use an opener, but it looks like it will be Mayers for now. I don’t trust Canning enough with his fly ball stylings and career home run rates on a hot, humid day in KC, but the Angels should keep winning. I’m just not sure -165 is the price to pay.
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners (-150, 7)
Lucas Giolito and Logan Gilbert come together for another good pitching matchup in Seattle. Michael Kopech and Bryan Woo delivered yesterday, as the 1st 5 Under wasn’t much of a sweat at all. We’ll see if Giolito and Gilbert can suppress offense again, as we have a really low total of 7.
Giolito has a 3.54 ERA with a 4.20 FIP and a 4.11 xERA on the season. He’s pitched well in his last two starts with 13 innings of one-run ball and 15 strikeouts. He actually threw six no-hit innings against the Yankees two appearances ago. The weird outlier with seven walks is still on my mind since we had the under in that May 25 game against the Tigers, especially because he’s walked 18 batters in his other 13 starts overall. Baseball is just weird like that.
Giolito does have an 80.5% LOB%, which is why his ERA and FIP are so different, but he has really buckled down with men on base and RISP to strand a lot of runners. That said, he’s also been fortunate from an ERA standpoint that 10 of his 12 homers allowed have been solo shots.
Gilbert has not been afforded the same good luck. He actually has just a 60.3% LOB%, so he has a 4.38 ERA with a 3.47 xERA and a 3.41 FIP in his 74 innings of work. Gilbert has also had two really rough starts here recently, as he allowed seven runs in three innings to the Angels last time out and seven runs to the Yankees over four innings two starts ago. He has a 45.6% Hard Hit% over his last six starts. It’s been a little bit iffy of late.
I don’t have a play here, but both starters are worth watching for various reasons.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-135, 9)
Twenty runs were scored at Fenway Park last night and 15 of them were scored by the Red Sox, as they rolled over New York and let out a lot of frustration with a bevy of extra-base hits and a 10-for-18 night with RISP. What will they do for an encore tonight against Clarke Schmidt?
Schmidt has a 4.70 ERA with a 4.41 xERA and a 4.30 FIP, but, as you know, he’s a guy that I’ve been watching very closely this season. His raw stuff is very good based on his spin rate data and he’s generated a lot of swings and misses this season, but the command profile has been in question. Well, Schmidt has allowed just seven earned runs in his last five starts and seems to have figured some things out.
He has allowed 11 homers for the season, but only three in his last six starts and only four in his last eight. As a result, he’s seen some positive regression in the BABIP and LOB% departments. He still has a .340 BABIP against and a 69.9% LOB%, but improvements are taking place in those two metrics. His Hard Hit% is still high at 45.7%, but I’m seeing positive signs otherwise.
Brayan Bello gets the call for the Red Sox tonight as he enters with a 3.78 ERA, 4.38 xERA, and a 4.23 FIP in his 52.1 innings of work. The sophomore righty has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since his 2023 debut on April 17. Like Schmidt, he’s allowed a lot of hard contact with a 46% HH%, but unlike Schmidt, Bello keeps the ball on the ground at a really high rate with a 56.9% GB%.
I definitely gave some thought to Schmidt and the Yankees here because he’s riding a nice wave, but Bello’s batted ball distribution is such that it is hard to string together enough hits to score a lot of runs. Schmidt, meanwhile, will give up doubles and dingers a little more frequently, although, the Yankees have been getting him to induce more grounders since the early part of May.
It’s a better pitching matchup than it probably looks, but a high-variance game due to the Hard Hit% marks against for both guys.
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs (-140, 8)
Justin Steele is back after missing some time with an injury as the Cubs and Orioles face off once again. The Cubs are on a bit of a heater this week with four wins and they’ve scored 38 runs in those games. They’re only three games back now in the NL Central, which nobody really wants to win. We’ll see if they can keep it rolling against Kyle Gibson, but getting Steele back is huge for the rotation.
Steele hit the IL with a 2.65 ERA and a 2.83 FIP over 68 innings pitched. He did not make a rehab assignment and has not pitched since May 31, so I have no idea what to expect from him here, but we can expect a lighter pitch count than usual, so factor that into your handicap if you are looking at this game.
Gibson has a 3.90 ERA with a 4.71 xERA and a 3.95 FIP in his 83 innings of work. Gibson has a low K%, but has limited homers and has been able to work around a 41.3% Hard Hit% that is a little bit higher than league average. He hasn’t located very well in his last two starts, allowing six barrels and 18 hard-hit balls in 35 batted ball events, so that is worth watching as he heads into this start.
This is an early game and I’m coming up on posting time, so not much more to add here.
Philadelphia Phillies (-175, 9) at Oakland Athletics
Cristopher Sanchez will get the call for the Phillies today against the A’s, as Oakland’s fun stretch was short-lived. The seven-game winning streak and the reverse boycott made for a lot of cool headlines, but now the A’s have lost three in a row again and are back to looking like the team we’ve seen all season long.
This will be just the second start for Sanchez, who allowed three runs on five hits in 4.1 innings back on April 22. He had a 4.35 ERA over 49.2 innings of work in Triple-A before getting called back up and is on a bit of a heater with three earned runs allowed on 13 hits in his last 18 innings pitched.
James Kaprielian goes for the A’s today and has a 6.89 ERA with a 5.75 FIP in 492 innings pitched. Since coming back up on May 13, he’s been a bit better with a 4.01 ERA and a 4.55 FIP, but he’s a pitch-to-contact guy who tilts towards the fly ball side pretty heavily and that seems like a bad fit against a Phillies lineup that is surging right now.
Pretty easy game to jump over quickly.
Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros (-120, 8.5)
The Redlegs stayed hot with a 2-1 dub yesterday and send ace Hunter Greene to the bump against Brandon Bielak and the Astros. Greene has a 4.01 ERA, but a 3.50 xERA and a 3.32 FIP are better indicators of how he has pitched on the season. He’s increased his K% and cut down his home run rate this season, so those are two really positive developments. Greene has a .353 BABIP, so that’s been a bit of a disappointment and also something that probably shouldn’t happen with a 32.7% GB%, as more grounders go for hits than fly balls typically.
But, Greene has allowed a 45.1% Hard Hit% and a 9.8% Barrel%, so you can see why he’s had some issues with that hard contact. His 14.6% SwStr% is a huge feather in his cap, though, and hitters swing a lot at his pitches because he throws so many fastballs. He has a 33.2% K% and has been above that number in each of his last five starts.
Also, not surprisingly, Greene has been better on the road than at home, which makes sense because Great American Ball Park is such a good venue for offense. He has allowed six of his eight homers at home, despite only throwing 24.1 innings in Cincinnati this season. However, one thing that is worrisome is that righties are hitting him better than lefties, as they have a .278/.338/.511 slash with a .364 wOBA compared to lefties with a .203/.301/.328 slash and a .285 wOBA.
The Astros don’t strike out a lot, so we’ll see if Greene is able to find the same success with swings and misses as usual. The Astros have actually been a pretty bad team against fastballs this season, though, so that merits watching.
What also merits watching is Bielak’s command profile. He has a 4.01 ERA, but a 6.36 xERA and a 5.55 FIP in his 42.2 innings of work. He’s allowed a .346 BABIP and nine home runs because he doesn’t have good command. He’s had a few strikeouts here and there, but he has allowed a 51.5% Hard Hit% and a 14.7% Barrel%. He’s allowed four barres in each of his last two starts and has allowed three barrels in a start three different times.
I definitely gave some thought to the over here. Greene will draw eight righties plus Kyle Tucker. Bielak’s command profile is pretty gross at this point. But, Minute Maid Park is not a great hitter’s park, especially with the roof closed.
Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres (-110, 8.5)
The Rays will face old friend Blake Snell in this one as this interesting weekend set carries on. Snell’s start was in question with a barking ankle, but he’s apparently good to go with a 3.78 ERA, but a 4.84 xERA and a 4.46 FIP in his 69 innings of work. Snell is what he’s always been. He’s a five-and-fly guy with a high K% and a high BB%. This season, he’s also worked in 10 home runs, but he has only given up one in his last four starts.
Snell has actually pitched extremely well in his last four starts with two runs allowed on just 12 hits in 24 innings pitched with 33 strikeouts against 10 walks. He’s faced the Nationals, Marlins, Cubs, and Rockies at Coors, so three lineups that hit lefties well and then a start in elevation where he struck out 12 with no walks. I definitely thought about going against him today, but that’s a really solid run after wondering if he was fully healthy with some spin rate and velo variations.
Zach Eflin goes for the Rays today and he’s in the midst of a fine season. He’s got a 3.28 ERA with a 2.88 xERA and a 3.22 FIP in his 71.1 innings of work. He’s struck out over a batter per inning with an elite walk rate and a 54.2% GB%. Scoring runs off of him should be very hard without free baserunners and with all those ground balls.
That being said, he has allowed at least three runs in four of his last seven starts, as he’s had some sequencing variance with a 67.6% LOB% in that span. He hasn’t allowed a homer in each of his last four starts, though, and has just a 35.3% Hard Hit%. In looking deeper at the numbers, this appears to be nothing more than bad luck for him.
I actually like the under tonight. Eflin doesn’t issue walks and the Padres are 20th in wOBA against RHP largely due to their 11.9% BB%. That shouldn’t be all that helpful for them today and Eflin does such a strong job of keeping the ball on the ground and inducing swings and misses. Snell is pitching really well right now and inducing a lot of weak contact. The Rays only have a 7% BB% against lefties while being second in the league in wOBA, so they’re pretty aggressive, but that may actually work in Snell’s favor because of his low Hard Hit% against.
The marine air at night at Petco Park suppresses offense and the wind will be blowing in a little bit. The Rays bullpen has stabilized recently and all of the primary relievers for San Diego are rested.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
Cleveland Guardians (-115, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Shane Bieber and Tommy Henry wrap up the Saturday card, as the Guardians lay a short road price against the NL West-leading Diamondbacks. Bieber has a 3.29 ERA with a 4.65 xERA and a 3.82 FIP, but he’s looked better in his last two starts, specifically his last start against the Astros with nine strikeouts over seven shutout innings. The stats are all pointing me towards fading Bieber on the regular, but the guy continues to get by and I’m not entirely sure how.
While he’s had a couple of really ugly outings, Bieber has held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 14 starts. There aren’t a lot of redeeming qualities with the velocity, the career-low K%, or the very obvious Cluster Luck numbers (.339 wOBA bases empty, .241 men on base, .196 with RISP). Yet, he just keeps outperforming a lot of the regression signs that are in the profile.
Henry has a 4.86 ERA with a 4.62 xERA and a 5.61 FIP in his 50 innings of work. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy reliant on a good defense and somehow it has worked more often than not. However, he’s allowed 10 runs on 14 hits in his last two starts and given up three home runs. Will the Guardians be able to take advantage? Your guess is as good as mine because they haven’t taken advantage of most good offensive situations.
I can’t take anything in this game. I’d like to think Bieber may have figured some things out, but I can’t, in good conscience, back him with all the concerning signs that I see in his profile against a pretty good Diamondbacks offense.
TL;DR Recap
Pirates -120
Blue Jays 1st 5 (-105)
TB/SD Under 8.5 (-115)
