MLB Best Bets Today June 8
A standalone early game in London gets the MLB card going for today with the Phillies and Mets across the pond. The other games will start at 4:05 p.m. ET or later and run right on through the evening. Every AL game on the slate features a road favorite today, so that’s an interesting wrinkle, and four of the other 10 games do as well. Guess we’ll see how the home teams fare, with more than a few facing long odds.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 8:
Toronto Blue Jays (-166, 8) at Oakland Athletics
4:07 p.m. ET
Day baseball by the bay features Kevin Gausman and “Funky Cold” Luis Medina as the Jays and A’s continue their weekend set at the Coliseum. Gausman is coming off of a rough start against the Orioles with six runs allowed over 6.1 innings of work, but he had allowed five runs on 15 hits over his previous 18 innings.
It looks like a good bounce back spot for Gausman with an Athletics lineup that has an 85 wRC+ against righties over the last 30 days and a 27.2% K% against just a 7.5% BB%. Gausman hasn’t sustained last year’s big strikeout pace, but he did strike out 10 Tigers a couple of starts ago, so it’s still in there. He’s got 59 K in 60.2 innings, but this should be a good chance for him to rack up some punchies. Also, he’s only walked 15 of 260 batters this season.
Gausman is a positive regression candidate with a 4.60 ERA and a 3.70 FIP. His 65% LOB% shouldn’t hang around for too long, especially with what he’s capable of in the K department.
Medina came back with a fine start against the Braves last time out, as he allowed an unearned run and just two hits over 5.2 innings of work. He struck out six and only walked a couple. Medina was a guy that made a lot of improvements last season that largely went unnoticed. He had a 4.32 ERA in the second half of the season over 50 innings, but that was two runs better than what he did in the first half.
Medina allowed a .272/.359/.502 slash and a .367 wOBA in the first half, but a .234/.342/.365 slash with a .315 wOBA in the second half. After allowing 10 homers in his first 27.2 innings, Medina only allowed four the rest of the way. He also cut his walks down midseason until he got a bit fatigued.
It was only one start, but Medina’s spin rates were up significantly across the board on all of his pitches and it looks like he may have a bit deeper of an arsenal this season with more usage of what was a good curveball in limited doses last season.
The Blue Jays pen is well-rested. I’m a little skeptical of Oakland’s pen, but most of the rested relievers are lefties, so that would be a different look after the right-handed Medina.
Pick: Blue Jays/Athletics Under 8 (-115)
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals (-192, 8.5)
4:15 p.m. ET
It will be Ryan Feltner and Kyle Gibson here, as the Rockies and Cardinals get together at Busch Stadium. It should be a good night for offense with a warm breeze blowing out early in the game and temps in the 80s with high humidity and a sweltering dewpoint.
To me, the conditions and the matchup are more favorable towards the Cardinals. Over the last 30 days, the Redbirds have a 128 wRC+ against righties and sit just one point behind the Yankees for the league lead. In that span, the Cardinals have a 9.5% BB% with a 21.9% K% and a .271/.343/.444 slash. Their .346 wOBA is actually tied with the Yankees for the lead in that span.
Feltner is struggling. He’s up to a 6.22 ERA with a 4.29 FIP and he’s seen a major drop-off in strikeouts, while still experiencing high BABIPs against. He’s got a .351 BABIP with a 60% LOB%, as he has not been able to pitch out of jams. To make matters worse, his Hard Hit% is up to 38.8% because he’s allowed a 47.8% HH% over his last five starts. He has a 7.30 ERA in that span and just 16 strikeouts in 24.2 innings of work.
With favorable weather conditions and a Cardinals crew swinging the sticks well against righties, I like their 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs. You can find this under ‘Innings’ on DraftKings and then “Team Total Runs – 1st X Innings”.
Pick: Cardinals 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-110)
