MLB Best Bets Today May 4
A busy Saturday is on tap in the big leagues. There’s a lot going on today in the sports world, including the Kentucky Derby, which we have plenty of coverage on. It is also May 4, so Star Wars fans are very excited and some will likely even show up in costume at ballparks around the country.
Games start at 1:05 p.m. ET and will run until close to the midnight hour with a 9:10 p.m. ET first pitch in Los Angeles. Several games have chances of rain today, so keep that in mind as you handicap the card.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 4:
Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics (-135, 7)
4:07 p.m. ET
The shock of trading Luis Arraez probably still won’t have worn off by the first pitch of this game between the Marlins and Athletics. It has been a miserable year for the Marlins already, as they are playing with a manager who won’t be back in Skip Schumaker and a really messy front office situation. The A’s, meanwhile, can get to .500 with a win today. On this date last year, they lost to drop to 6-26.
Paul Blackburn gets the call for the A’s as he looks to bounce back from a couple of rough outings in tough spots. He gave up 10 runs on 12 hits and four homers in outings at Yankee Stadium and at Oriole Park, but now he’s back in the friendly confines of the Coliseum and draws a Marlins lineup that ranks 29th in wRC+ as opposed to the Yankees, who are sixth, or Orioles, who are third.
Lucas Erceg may be unavailable today after throwing 28 pitches yesterday, but Mason Miller is good to go, so one of Oakland’s two elite relief arms will definitely be on hand if called upon. The bullpen has been terrific all the way around and the lineup has been surprisingly competent.
I do like that the A’s are facing a second straight lefty, so the platoon guys that played yesterday will be in there again today. Trevor Rogers owns a 4.31 ERA with a 3.39 FIP, as he’s carrying the low FIP because he’s only allowed two homers, but he’s allowed a 44.1% Hard Hit% on the season and has allowed five barrels over his last two starts. His last start also featured his lowest fastball velo of the season, something to monitor with a guy who is injured pretty often.
I didn’t take the A’s yesterday because of a line move as I was finishing up the article that bumped up the price. I won’t make that mistake again today, as they’re playing some very good ball right now and the emotional and mental hits just keep on coming for Miami.
Pick: Athletics -135
Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds (-118, 9)
6:40 p.m. ET
For the first time in 219 days, John Means will make a start for the Orioles. He’ll slot in here against Andrew Abbott and the Reds. Means was outstanding in his final rehab start with seven shutout innings and one run allowed, but he allowed 18 runs on 22 hits in the five previous rehab starts over just 11.2 innings of work.
He was activated because his rehab assignment ran out, as the rules state that you can only be on a rehab assignment for a month. The margin of error for Means will be very thin here, as Great American Ball Park is not Oriole Park at Camden Yards. It will be humid tonight on the banks of the Ohio River and Means is a fly ball guy who has allowed 70 home runs in 380.1 innings, including 30 back in 2021 over 146.2 innings of work.
On the Abbott side for the Reds, he runs into an Orioles group that ranks second in wRC+ against lefties at 138. The Orioles are second in SLG at .484, trailing only the Diamondbacks, but their 17 homers against southpaws are the most in baseball. Overall, Baltimore ranks third in Hard Hit% at 43.6% and leads baseball in Barrel% at 10%.
Abbott tilts towards the fly ball side as well and his best attribute is limiting hard contact. Unfortunately, he faces an Orioles lineup that makes a ton of it and his margin for error is limited by an anemic 6.8% SwStr%. When the Orioles make contact, a lot of good things happen and I believe that will be the case in this one for Baltimore.
I also expect the Reds to get some production off of Means. I also don’t think we’ll see deep starts from either guy, so that brings the lesser relievers into the equation. I also feel like Means won’t be all that sharp and will allow some baserunners, allowing Cincinnati to generate run-scoring chances that way, as they lead the league with 56 stolen bases.
Pick: Orioles/Reds Over 9 (-105)
