MLB Best Bets Today September 28:
There are only two playoff spots up for grabs and both of them are NL Wild Card spots. The AL was locked up last night, as the Royals and Tigers punched their tickets to October. They’ll be very popular fade candidates in the first round given that their records were padded by what they did against the White Sox. We’ll wait to see who draws Houston and who draws Baltimore, but both teams will be hefty ALWC favorites.
The second-to-last day of the regular season will be a tough one across the map because it is hard to know who is invested and who isn’t. It’s a long regular season and players on non-playoff teams are just ready to call it and head on home for the most part. Individual benchmarks are important, so maybe player props are the way to look, but today is a tricky day. Tomorrow is even worse, but I won’t have a Sunday article.
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Instead, I’ll start putting together series previews for the Wild Card Round. Throughout the playoffs, I will do a daily best bets article all seven days and also do series previews. So, I’m looking forward to that, but for now, we’ve got one last regular season article.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 28:
Texas Rangers (-148, 8) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
The Rangers and Angels have been playing out the string for a while now, but one team is still somewhat engaged, while the other checked out a long time ago. It’s a big number to lay today on Texas with Andrew Heaney on the hill against Griffin Canning, but I think it’s worth it.
The Angels have a 36 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers over the last 30 days, meaning they are 64% below league average in that split. They have a .160/.240/.228 slash and have struck out nearly 27% of the time. They have a .218 wOBA, better than only the Royals over the last 30 days. If we extend it out to the entire second half, they have a .287 wOBA with an 84 wRC+. They’ve been bad all around, but especially against lefties.
So the left-handed Heaney has a chance at one more good outing before he heads into free agency, as his two-year deal with Texas expires in a couple days. He also has a chance to finish with an ERA under 4.00 if he has a good start here, as he sits at 3.98, so that’s a motivating factor. If he goes at least four innings, he’ll throw 160 innings for the first time since he was an Angel back in 2018. All of these personal accolades can potentially mean something. Also, he’s right at a strikeout per inning with 156 and that nice, round number is also meaningful.
I’m not sure anything is meaningful to the Halos right now. Their best reliever, Ben Joyce, is out. The team stinks. I don’t think they like Ron Washington much, another factor here, since the Rangers have the utmost respect for Bruce Bochy. And Canning has a 5.24 ERA with a 5.25 FIP in 166.2 innings of work. He has a 5.88 ERA with a 5.15 FIP in the second half.
It’s a big number, but Heaney has motivations, the Rangers are still playing relatively hard for Bochy, and the Angels quit a long time ago.
Pick: Rangers -148
