MLB Best Bets Today April 4
It will be a light day on the diamond with only six games on tap and only four of them were scheduled, as the Tigers and Mets will attempt to play a doubleheader on what was a scheduled off day. Temps will be in the 40s and low 50s for today’s action, so we’ll see how that affects the bats and boosts the pitchers.
I’ll be leaving in the long intro blurb throughout the week so you can see the cadence of the article and what you can expect.
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I’ll be writing my MLB best bets today article Monday-Saturday over the course of the season, but those that have read it in the past will notice a few wrinkles.
I will only be writing up games I have picks on. In the past, I would share information about other games and pitchers on my radar, but I’ll just be filing those things away in my own mind in hopes of finding bets down the line.
Also, I will be incorporating more props into my MLB article this season, rather than just sides, totals, and run lines. Pitcher strikeout props, outs props, and other things that are widely available in the legal U.S. markets will be included.
The VSiN Daily Baseball Bets podcast is gone (RIP), but I will be co-hosting the Double Play Baseball Podcast for DraftKings with Dustin Swedelson. That will be less of a betting podcast and more of a general baseball podcast, but we will sprinkle in a little bit of handicapping content.
The season-long tracking sheet can be found here. Typically, this article will come out around 8-9 a.m. PT, but I’ll try to get it out quicker on days with a lot of day games.
Lines will be from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate at time of publish. In the interest of transparency and a lack of confusion, I will cite lines from the “Game” tab, which, unfortunately, means “Action” regardless of who starts. When possible, always select the “Listed Pitcher” odds where both pitchers must start, especially if there is no significant price difference. The game I handicapped and the game you handicapped is with the two listed, probable pitchers. In the era of openers and late scratches, pitching changes will happen and odds will change. Protect yourself the best you can.
Finally, SHOP AROUND. Have multiple sportsbooks to choose from so you can get the best line possible. My lines in the article are from DraftKings because they own VSiN, not because they have the best odds on that game. It is your responsibility to get the best line that you can.
Check out all my preseason content, including previews for all 30 teams and baseball betting tips, right here.
MLB Odds | MLB Betting Splits | MLB Matchups
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 4:
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins (-155, 7.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
The first of 13 head-to-head meetings is today between the Guardians and Twins. For an April 4 day in Minnesota, the weather is about as nice as you can get with sunny skies and temps in the upper 40s. It won’t be a fun day to be a hitter, but I think it will be a bit more enjoyable for the Twins than it will be for the Guardians.
Tanner Bibee really struggled in his first start of 2024. He was uncharacteristically wild with five walks over four innings. He also allowed three runs on six hits. For Bibee, an average exit velo against of 91.8 mph was very much on the high end, but it will be the walks that will bother him the most. He was visibly upset about the lack of control that he had.
In my mind, I think he will overcompensate here and throw strikes for the sake of throwing strikes. I’m sure the memo from the coaching staff will be to just throw strikes and let your defense work. The Guardians do have a great defense, but it seemed clear that Bibee’s command wasn’t very sharp either, as he only got a 22% Chase Rate out of the A’s.
Bibee was a lot better at home than he was on the road last season as well. He allowed a .248 wOBA with a .200/.275/.268 slash at home and only gave up two homers, whereas he allowed a .318 wOBA on the road with a .257/.312/.429 slash and 11 homers.
The Twins aren’t striking out nearly as much as they did last season, but they still haven’t had the offensive results with a .211 BA and a .268 BABIP. I expect both numbers to rise as we go forward and I think Bibee focusing on throwing strikes will lead to some base hits for the Twins.
Pick: Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)
