MLB Best Bets Today August 15:
Seven games are on the MLB card for Thursday, as we’ll have three in each league and one interleague matchup. The card also starts early with a couple of 1:10 p.m. ET games in Detroit and Queens. Getaway day games can be tricky handicaps and that rings truer from now through the rest of the season, especially in games where one team has a whole lot more in play than another.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 15:
Minnesota Twins (-118, 8) at Texas Rangers
8:05 p.m. ET
The Twins and Rangers open up a four-game weekend set in Arlington with Thursday’s matchup between Bailey Ober and Cody Bradford. Minnesota lost to the Royals and Cole Ragans in the afternoon, but got settled in the DFW area in time for a nice dinner and a good night’s sleep. The Rangers had a Saturday doubleheader and played six games in five days before arriving home at 2 a.m. local time last night.
The Rangers played two extra-inning games in Boston and their bullpen was quite taxed throughout the road trip, so that is another concern without an off day here. They did win the series finale in Boston, but have lost six of their last eight heading into this series.
Ober comes in with a 3.52 ERA and a 3.69 FIP in his 128 innings of work. The 6-foot-9 right-hander has allowed just four runs on nine hits in 28 innings here in the second half with a 31/7 K/BB ratio. Bradford returned to the ballclub for his July 30 start and has allowed eight runs on 14 hits in 10.2 innings of work. Bradford has maxed out at five innings and 20 batters faced.
The Texas bullpen has thrown 228 pitches over the last three days and Bradford is a guy that you don’t want turning lineups over all that much. But, he may not have much of a choice here with the heavy bullpen usage. Unfortunately, he may force Bruce Bochy’s hand because he throws a lot of fastballs and the Twins are third in Batting Run Value on fastballs per Statcast.
Righties own a .477 career SLG against Bradford with 27 extra-base hits. The Twins should be able to put nine of them in the lineup tonight if they want and had eight in the lineup yesterday against a southpaw starter. This one isn’t as intimidating as Ragans.
I like the Twins for the 1st 5 at -110 at time of publish. The full game at -118 is also fine, though the Twins are 28th in bullpen ERA in the second half, so that gives me some pause.
Pick: Twins 1st 5 (-110)
