MLB Best Bets Today May 2
Those looking to celebrate Thirsty Thursday with the MLB six pack on the schedule will have to celebrate early, as five of the six games on the card start at 2:35 p.m. ET or earlier. The first game is actually a 12:10 start down in Miami, so it will be a very light nighttime card with only Guardians vs. Astros to follow.
Sorry for the short lead time today on the first pick, but it’ll happen sometimes with the number of early games.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 2:
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (-112, 8.5)
1:10 p.m. ET
One of the early games caught my eye for some run-scoring potential. It will be Ben Brown for the Cubs and Adrian Houser for the Mets, as we get a very warm day in Queens with temps in the low 80s and a little bit of a summer-esque breeze blowing out to dead center.
Brown has allowed a 64.6% Hard Hit% in his 65 batted ball events this season with a 13.8% Barrel% and a 96 mph average exit velocity. He does have 22 K in 23 innings pitched and has done well to limit the walks, but that is an obscene rate of hard contact. The league average for HH% is 38.9% and the league average Barrel% is 7.6%, so he’s a substantial outlier in both departments because of his shoddy command.
Brown also tilts towards the fly ball side and the Cubs rank 27th in Outs Above Average as an outfield defense this season. He ranks in the 4th percentile in Barrel%, 1st percentile in Hard Hit%, 11th percentile in both xERA and xBA, and 1st percentile in Average Exit Velocity. And he’s allowing a lot of fly balls. He’s running a .297 wOBA right now, but you can understand why his xwOBA is .375. On a warm day in Queens, I think he could be in for a very rough outing.
Houser has allowed 14 runs in his last 8.1 innings and owns an 8.37 ERA overall. His .346 BABIP and 54.8% LOB% may be ripe for a bit of positive regression, but he’s walked more batters (16) than he has struck out (14) and has allowed a 43.9% Hard Hit% with a 9.8% Barrel%. He’s actually allowed five barrels over his last two starts, so he’s really fighting it from a command standpoint.
His 41.5% GB% is over 5% lower than what he had the previous two seasons with the Brewers, so his batted ball types are additionally problematic when you talk about a lack of command. His 3.3% HR/FB% is a mirage and something that will negatively regress if these trends continue.
Both bullpens have worked a bit in this season, as Mark Leiter Jr. has worked three of the last four days for the Cubs and Hector Neris would be pitching a third time in four days. On the Mets side, Edwin Diaz hasn’t been used the last two days after Monday’s game-deciding two-run homer, but Adam Ottavino has pitched back-to-back days, along with Sean Reid-Foley and Jorge Lopez.
Some subpar relievers may be called upon early with the chances for both pitchers to struggle. On a warm day in Queens with two dudes allowing a ton of hard contact, I don’t think this is a low-scoring getaway day contest.
Pick: Cubs/Mets Over 8.5 (-105)
Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros (-130, 9)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Guardians and Astros will wrap up what has been a thrilling series at The Juice Box with the lone late game on the card. It will be Logan Allen for Cleveland and Spencer Arrighetti for Houston. It will be Arrighetti’s fourth MLB start and he has an obscene 10.97 ERA, but bettors will likely look at the 3.79 FIP and see reasons to back the ‘Stros here.
Arrighetti has 15 strikeouts in 10.2 innings and has only allowed one home run, which is why his FIP is so low. Per his Baseball Savant data, he’s definitely gotten a bit unlucky this season. He’s got a .416 wOBA against with a .332 xwOBA. His Hard Hit% ranks in the 58th percentile and his Barrel% ranks in the 89th percentile, so he’s done a decent job of limiting hard contact and he’s also generating a pretty high Whiff% at 30.3% (swings and misses / swings).
There is certainly a chance that the Guardians, who do a really good job of limiting strikeouts, have some success against Arrighetti, but there are a lot of positive regression signs in the profile. He’s had issues working deep into games with 22 of his 58 PA ending in either a strikeout or walk, but the Guardians don’t walk much and are very aggressive when it comes to swinging. That may work out a bit better for Arrighetti.
But, the real reasons why I like the Astros here are related to Cleveland’s pitching staff. Allen is left-handed, which is almost never good against Houston and they are sixth in wRC+ against lefties this season. They’re always among the league leaders. There are a lot of signs of Allen going in the wrong direction as well. Not only does he have a 5.46 ERA with a 5.12 FIP, bue he’s allowed at least three runs in five of his six starts and has allowed a 42.3% Hard Hit% with a 10.3% Barrel%. He’s allowed eight barrels over his last three starts and a 53.2% Hard Hit%. Those starts were against the Yankees, A’s, and Braves and doesn’t even include his awful outing against the lowly White Sox.
The other reason is the Cleveland bullpen. Emmanuel Clase and Scott Barlow have each worked four of the last five days. Hunter Gaddis has blown three consecutive saves in his appearances. Nick Sandlin would be working a fourth time in six days. Cade Smith has worked three of the last four. Tim Herrin has worked back-to-back days. The only fresh arms for Cleveland are Tyler Beede and Pedro Avila and they don’t have an off day before opening up a weekend set with the Angels.
I’ll take Arrighetti over Allen and I also hate where the Cleveland bullpen is right now. Stephen Vogt’s team is scrappy as hell and I’m sure they won’t go down without a fight, but they have to be a little bit gassed right now, as they’ve played four straight extra-inning games and have had one off day since April 22.
Pick: Astros -130
