MLB Best Bets Today May 30
A 4-and-4 day is on tap for Thursday, as four day games and four night games come our way on the MLB schedule. Three of the four day games are 1:10 p.m. ET starts, while the other is a midday matinee up in Seattle with a local 1:10 start. All of that builds into a big weekend on the diamond and 14 of the league’s 30 teams will enjoy some rest.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Top MLB Resources:
Catch a new edition of the Double Play Podcast with Dustin Swedelson and yours truly Monday and Thursday.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 30:
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox (-122, 7.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Tigers and Red Sox come together at Fenway Park for a four-game weekend set. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta will look to set the tone for their respective teams in the series lid lifter. This Tigers offense has really been swinging it well of late. They’re up to a 100 wRC+ in the month of May, so they are a perfectly league average offense over the last 29 days. However, if you look at the last 14 days, the Motor City Kitties are seventh with a 118 wRC+.
Boston’s offense has ticked up a bit lately, but they’re sitting at 101 for the last 14 days and below average for the month at 89. In this battle of right-handed starters, the Tigers have a 113 wRC+ against RHP in May, while the Red Sox have an 88 wRC+.
That brings me to Flaherty vs. Pivetta, where the Tigers have an advantage in my estimation. Flaherty has actually been rather excellent this season. He has a 3.84 ERA, but his xERA of 2.76 shows potential positive regression on the horizon and his 2.98 FIP is a byproduct of a spectacular 81/9 K/BB ratio. Flaherty has also held opponents to just a 33.3% Hard Hit% and a 4.7% Barrel%. The Blue Jays had one hard-hit ball against him last time out for a 6.7% HH%.
Pivetta will be making his fifth straight start since missing more than a month. Including his May 8 return, Pivetta has a 6.16 ERA with a 5.76 FIP, as he’s allowed 13 runs on 19 hits in 19 innings of work. Like Flaherty, he has a strong K/BB ratio, but unlike Flaherty, Pivetta has allowed a 13% Barrel%.
While the Kerry Carpenter injury has weakened the profile of the Detroit offense, I still think they hold the upper hand in some key areas here and think they’re worth a look at today’s underdog number.
Pick: Tigers +102
New York Yankees (-185, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
There are only three left-handed starters listed as probables for today and two of them are in this game. Carlos Rodon and Patrick Sandoval are slated to pitch in the series finale between the Yankees and Angels.
This will be a matchup of two top-10 offenses against lefties in the month of May and the one with the higher wRC+ isn’t the one you would expect. The Angels own a 133 wRC+ against lefties this month and are actually third in SLG. Given that they haven’t had Mike Trout for the majority of that time, it has been a really impressive showing from the Halos. They have a .359 wOBA, trailing only the Dodgers, Orioles, and Royals in that span.
Rodon comes in with a 2.95 ERA, but regression is very much lurking with a 4.49 xERA, 4.41 FIP, and a 4.51 xFIP. He has allowed a .317 wOBA, but has a .336 xwOBA, so that’s another sign going against him in this start. Rodon has allowed a 44% Hard Hit% and a 9.7% Barrel%. He didn’t allow any Barrels last time out against the Padres, but had allowed 13 Barrels over his previous four starts.
Sandoval is coming off of a brutal start against the Guardians in which he allowed eight runs on six hits over just 3.2 innings of work. He allowed three homers in that outing and has now allowed four of his six homers in the last two starts. He’s also back to having problems with his control, as he walked four Guardians in that outing. The Guardians rarely walk. The Yankees walk a ton, especially against lefties, as they have a 10.9% BB% against them this month.
New York has a 123 wRC+ against southpaws in May and a 131 wRC+ overall to lead all of baseball. They also have a 133 wRC+ over the last 14 days, so the offense isn’t really showing signs of slowing down.
Sandoval has not done well pitching in higher-leverage spots with a 62.3% LOB% and his .348 BABIP against and 9.7% BB% mean that he’s likely to have a lot of traffic to deal with.
With two offenses that have hit lefties well, I’m looking for some runs tonight.
Pick: Yankees/Angels Over 8.5 (-108)
