MLB Best Bets Today September 12:
It is a fairly quiet day on the diamond with 14 of the league’s 30 teams on a brief hiatus. Eight games are on the schedule and three of them are very early starts for us out here in Pacific Time. Seven of the eight games feature home favorites ranging from the -140s to the -270s, so the story remains the same with MLB. Right now, looking at player props, derivative markets, and dogs with a pulse feels like the way to go.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for September 12:
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-180, 8.5)
6:45 p.m. ET
The options are pretty limited today, as a lot of the pitcher props have heavy vig and a lot of the matchups simply aren’t very good. But, I don’t want to leave everybody empty-handed. I stared long and hard at this Marlins and Nationals game looking for a way to play it. In terms of a more traditional wager, I strongly pondered the Over 8.5 at DraftKings (mostly 9 across the market) because there is a good chance that Mitchell Parker is running out of steam.
What I settled on instead was Darren McCaughan Over 5.5 Hits Allowed. McCaughan has only gone over this number twice in five appearances of 4+ innings, but the Nationals are a team that doesn’t walk or strike out a whole lot. McCaughan has made two starts here in September since rejoining the Marlins and has SwStr% marks of 5.6% and 5.5%. His stuff is far from overpowering, so hitters are pretty aggressive against him.
I realize there have been changes throughout the season with the Nationals, but they are one of 11 teams with a BB% + K% below 30%. In other words, they put a lot of balls in play. Over the last 30 days, they have the second-lowest K% and rank 24th in BB%. They’re going to have chances on balls in play against McCaughan and that’s about all I can ask for.
McCaughan has faced 39 batters in his two starts and only seven have seen a PA end in a strikeout or walk, though he’s also hit three batters. Still, I think the Nationals, who will end up with a good number of platoon advantages in this game, have a good chance at getting Over this total.
Pick: Darren McCaughan (MIA) Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110)
