MLB Best Bets Today September 19:
The day games we didn’t get on Wednesday are present on Thursday, as we’ve got early starts in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Arlington, and Baltimore, plus a lunchtime special in Seattle. In all, it is a busy day with 12 games on the diamond with just over two weeks left in the regular season.
It’s also clinching season, as the Brewers became the first division winner last night. That used to mean a “hangover lineup” the next day – and we’ve seen a big line move – but the Brewers are two games out on the race for one of those coveted byes in the playoffs, so we’ll see how manager Pat Murphy plays it. We know 20-year-old Jackson Chourio will be in the lineup!
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It’s also much tougher to get a hangover lineup now that roster expansion in September is 28 players, not anybody on the 40-man roster. I think it’s actually an overrated angle.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 19:
Boston Red Sox (-112, 8) at Tampa Bay Rays
6:50 p.m. ET
AL East rivals wrap up their series here as the Red Sox and Rays do battle in Tampa. It’ll be Brayan Bello and Zack Littell in this one and my focus is on the Tampa starter.
Let me preface this by saying that DraftKings has the Red Sox 1st 5 Team Total lined at 1.5 with -125 on the Over. Littell’s Earned Runs Allowed prop is 2.5 in this one. He went six innings last time out against the Guardians, but that’s because he threw six shutout innings. He’s actually thrown 13.2 straight scoreless innings and what is most interesting about that is his last two starts have been on the road.
Littell has a 4.45 ERA on the road with a .302/.337/.496 slash against and a .358 wOBA. This start, however, comes at home, where Littell has a 3.15 ERA with a .244/.295/.384 slash against and a .298 wOBA. His K% is 3% higher at home and he’s done a better job of limiting the long ball.
Littell has made 14 home starts this season and allowed more than two earned runs just three times. Based on the Boston 1st 5 Team Total, they have a low-scoring expectation here and we’re actually getting an extra run – an earned run, at that – on this prop. Unearned runs wouldn’t hurt against his tally given the language of the prop.
The Red Sox have a 96 wRC+ over the last 14 days with a 28.3% K% and just a 6.9% BB%, so this should set up nicely for Littell, especially when you also consider that the Red Sox have a .271 wOBA in their last 504 plate appearances on the road.
Pick: Zack Littell Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115)
