MLB Best Bets Today July 23:
Everybody takes the field on Tuesday with five games in each league and five interleague matchups on July 23. The Trade Deadline is a week away as of 6 p.m. ET, but the rumor mill doesn’t seem to be all that active to this point. Players and teams definitely have it on their minds, though, so it has to be a little bit uncomfortable in some clubhouses around the league. We’ll see how it all plays out soon enough.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 23:
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (-112. 8.5)
8:05 p.m. ET
Colin Rea and Jameson Taillon are the listed starters for this one as the Brewers take on the Cubs. Rea is a guy that I’ve been wanting to fade. He has all of the telltale regression signs in his profile with a 3.77 ERA, 5.07 xERA, a 4.46 FIP, and a 4.47 xFIP. He has a low strikeout rate, but is running a 76.5% LOB%.
If we go back to May 13, Rea has a 44.3% Hard Hit% with a 4.05 ERA and a 4.41 FIP, so we’re seeing some of those negative regression signs come to fruition, but not all the way. He’s a guy that also has some home/road split issues. By BA/OBP/SLG, he’s 52/78/56 points higher on the road and his wOBA of .277 at home is much higher on the road at .338. I’m not a believer in the profile. He also only has 26 K in 46.2 innings away from home.
Taillon comes in with a 3.10 ERA, 3.71 xERA, and a 3.79 FIP on the season. He’s missing a few more bats than Rea. Also, the Brewers draw a lot of walks, but Taillon has a 4.7% BB%, as he’s been one of the best in baseball at avoiding free passes.
I’m looking to fade Rea in this one with the Cubs for the 1st 5 run line.
Pick: Cubs 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+120)
