MLB Best Bets Today June 25
Fifteen games are listed for Tuesday and all of them are late games, so we’ll have to wait and see what the day has in store. Seven of tonight’s games are interleague matchups and most of today’s games are pretty competitively lined, so it should be a fun night on the diamond. This is about all we’ve got outside of WNBA on a nightly basis now that the Stanley Cup Finals are over, so a lot of people will be betting baseball to scratch that itch.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Top MLB Resources:
Catch a new edition of the Double Play Podcast with Dustin Swedelson and yours truly Monday and Thursday.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 25:
Seattle Mariners (-125, 7.5) at Tampa Bay Rays
6:50 p.m. ET
Luis Castillo and Zack Littell are the listed hurlers in this matchup, as the Mariners and Rays do battle. Castillo comes in with a 3.63 ERA, 3.91 xERA, and a 3.80 FIP in 94.1 innings of work. But, when you put him on the road, he’s a very different guy. He has a 2.96 ERA at home with a .237/.276/.382 slash against and a .286 wOBA in 48.2 innings of work. He has a 55/9 K/BB ratio, good for a 28.1% K% and a 4.6% BB%.
On the road, however, Castillo has a 4.34 ERA over 45.2 innings with a .246/.314/.462 slash and a .333 wOBA. His K% drops to 21.4% and his BB% balloons to 8.9%. Castillo’s home FIP of 3.11 is a lot different than his road FIP of 4.53 and it has been a multi-year trend since he got to Seattle.
Speaking of splits, the same can be said for Littell, who has become quite a valuable pitcher for the Rays. He issues virtually no walks and has been able to do a pretty good job of minimizing hurtful contact at home. Littell has a 3.56 ERA with a .253/.287/.392 slash and a .298 wOBA against at home in 48 innings this season. He has a 49/7 K/BB ratio.
But, in 33.1 innings on the road, Littell has allowed a .338/.376/.527 slash with a .391 wOBA and has a 27/8 K/BB ratio. Like Castillo, we see a big K% decrease on the road, where Littell goes from a 25.1% K% at home to a 17.1% K% on the road. Given that the Mariners strike out a lot, this should bode well for Littell.
I have no interest in dealing with the Rays bullpen, but I do like Littell in a favorable ballpark over Castillo, whose road splits are definitely a burden that he takes with him away from Seattle.
Pick: Rays 1st 5 (-105)
