MLB Best Bets Today April 10
Another busy day on the diamond features 28 of the league’s 30 teams, as we’ll see several afternoon matchups on Wednesday. Some of the pitcher injuries from around the league are on display today as well, as Allan Winans gets the call for the Braves in his first start since Spencer Strider went down and Spencer Arrighetti makes his MLB debut for the Astros. On a more positive note, we’ll have the MLB debut of Jackson Holliday, the top prospect in all of baseball and son of former MLB slugger Matt Holliday.
As you know, this article runs Monday-Saturday, is posted with current odds from DraftKings at time of publish, and you should shop around for the best odds.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 10:
Tampa Bay Rays (-118, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
4:07 p.m. ET
The Rays and Angels wrap up their series in Anaheim with a matinee between Zack Littell and Jose Soriano. My interest in this game is with Littell and his strikeout prop of 4.5 at DK.
Littell is filling up the strike zone right now. He’s only thrown 48 balls in 161 pitches (29.8%), so we’re seeing some extreme pitch efficiency from him. He actually had an 85% first-pitch strike rate in his start at Coors last time out. In two starts, Littell has a 34.5% Chase Rate and has a 13.7% SwStr%.
The Rays have so much success with pitchers and Littell appears to be another success story for them. He’s working his four-seam fastball up in the zone, which generates additional swing and miss with pretty average velocity. He’s also throwing his slider more this season, a pitch that has a much higher Whiff% through two starts this season than it had last season.
Most importantly, Littell should draw a lineup much heavier on righties and that will allow him to deploy his splitter more. That is his best swing-and-miss pitch with a 50% Whiff% this season and a 28.1% Whiff% last season. Based on the early returns of his pitch usage, the Rays have decided to leverage that more as a pitch against righties, as he’s thrown 26 on the season and 17 to righties. Last season, he threw 255 and 202 of them were to lefties, as he allowed a .265 BA and a .426 SLG to LHB on that pitch.
His slider was a much more effective weapon, holding batters to a .150 BA with a .275 SLG. So, it would appear that Littell is going to leverage the splitter to neutralize his reverse platoon split and I think we should see that on display here today.
Pick: Zack Littell Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-148, 8)
6:40 p.m. ET
Kyle Hendricks and Dylan Cease square off in the rubber match between the Cubs and Padres. It has been a tough start to the season for Hendricks, who hasn’t had great command of his changeup or sinker, his two primary pitches. He has had two difficult assignments against the Dodgers and Rangers, but the Padres have been an above average offense against right-handed pitching.
San Diego also ranks 18th in wOBA on pitches of 95+ mph, so their numbers have been impacted by what they’ve done against premier velocity, which Hendricks does not possess. The veteran right-hander has allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in 7.2 innings and has just six strikeouts out of 43 batters to go with four walks. He’s allowed four barrels already after allowing 28 all of last season.
While Hendricks hasn’t allowed a ton of hard-hit contact, his batted ball data has led to a .350 xBA and a .658 xSLG, so the quality of his stuff has been quite poor per all the Statcast metrics.
Cease comes in with two solid starts against the Giants on his resume for 2024. He’s allowed five runs (four earned) over 10.2 innings with 13 strikeouts against four walks. The Cubs rank eighth in wOBA on pitches of 95+, which is a relevant stat against Cease’s high-velocity fastball. Chicago ranks eighth in wRC+ against RHP to this point, with a 13.3% BB% as a big part of the equation. The Cubs have the league’s lowest Chase Rate per Statcast at 22.6%, so they’re forcing pitchers to get into the zone.
Cease is a guy who has posted a double-digit walk rate in four of his five full seasons and his lowest career BB% is 9.6%. The Giants rank 24th in wOBA against RHP, so this is a step up in matchup for Cease, who has allowed an average exit velo of 91.3 mph with a lot of contact just below the 95 mph hard-hit threshold.
The Cubs pen is up against it a little bit here, as Adbert Alzolay has worked back-to-back days and Mark Leiter Jr. has pitched three of the last four. Drew Smyly had 30 tosses yesterday, so he’s likely unavailable, and Ben Brown started yesterday, so he’s no longer a bullpen option.
I think both teams get run-scoring opportunities. Hopefully they can cash them in, as most total bets simply come down to performance with RISP and whether or not it falls on your side. I think we’ll see baserunners here and hopefully the timely hits follow.
Pick: Cubs/Padres Over 8 (-115)
Miami Marlins at New York Yankees (-218, 8.5)
7:05 p.m. ET
The Marlins and Yankees will battle it out again, as the New York left some runs out there yesterday. Two players missed two-run homers by inches and the Yanks left several guys in scoring position. They had chances and they really worked A.J. Puk, as he went 4.2 innings and needed 98 pitches. He had five walks and allowed four hits, plus he only had six whiffs in 39 swings.
I’m expecting the Yankees to make life tough on Ryan Weathers tonight as well. Weathers has gone four innings and five innings in his two starts with 11 strikeouts against five walks. He’s allowed five barrels already, including four in his last start against the Cardinals. Most notably, it took Weathers 94 pitches to get 12 outs against the Pirates and 86 pitches to get 15 outs against the Cardinals.
The Yankees have a 15.3% BB% against lefties on the young year. The Pirates have a 13.3% BB% and the Cardinals have a 13% BB%. Weathers is likely to labor again here, similar to those two starts. The Yankees have done a really good job of limiting strikeouts against lefties, despite all their deep counts as well, so I think that is another problem for Weathers. He’s had more swing and miss this season, but that’s not typically his game. He only has a 17.8% K% and a 9.4% BB% in his MLB career, but has a 6.25 ERA in 134 innings as a starter with a .299/.376/.522 slash line against.
I expect him to really struggle with this lineup tonight, as the Yankees draw a lefty for the third straight night.
Pick: Ryan Weathers Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (+110)
