MLB Best Bets Today August 28:
All 30 teams take the field on Wednesday and we add some day games to the mix, with early starts in Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those two games are definitely important, with the Cubs and Pirates making the list because of Paul Skenes and the Royals and Guardians because outright first place is on the line in the AL Central.
But, with limited lead time, those games aren’t on my card today. The rest of today’s games don’t start until 4:05 p.m. ET or later, so 13 of the 15 games were available for today’s article.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 28:
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (-130, 11)
8:40 p.m. ET
The Marlins and Rockies played a 3-2 decision in Game 1 and a 9-8 decision in Game 2, so we’ve had a couple of one-run games as we head into Game 3. The Marlins erased a 6-0 deficit and trailed 8-4 going into the ninth inning before scoring five runs to steal victory from the jaws of defeat last night.
This is an improved lineup with guys like Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers out there after the Trade Deadline, not to mention the recent promotion of Griffin Conine. Jake Burger continues to have a solid season in the power department and this is a group of players scratching and clawing for some reps and opportunities next season.
The Rockies have a bunch of guys with solid slugging percentages because of Coors Field and they get a golden opportunity today against Max Meyer. Meyer was recalled for a July 27 start and has a 7.36 ERA with a 7.05 FIP in six starts from that point. Most notably, he only has 21 strikeouts in 29.1 innings and has allowed a 51% Hard Hit% with a 15% Barrel%. He’s given up at least two Barrels in every start and at least a 40.9% Hard Hit% in each of the last five.
I can’t imagine Coors Field’s conditions will be all that helpful for him, so the Rockies have the chance to do a good amount of damage. Hopefully Brenton Doyle can return tonight, but I like their chances even without him.
Kyle Freeland gets the start for the Rox and he has a 3.84 ERA with a 4.26 FIP since coming off the IL on June 23, but he has allowed a 44% Hard Hit% with an 11% Barrel% in those 11 starts, so I think he’s a regression candidate.
In the month of August, these two bullpens rank 28th (Rockies – 5.56) and 29th (Marlins – 5.66) in ERA and 28th and 30th in FIP, so there shouldn’t be a whole lot of “relief” tonight.
Pick: Marlins/Rockies Over 11 (-108)
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (-125, 9)
9:40 p.m. ET
The Mets and Diamondbacks are both very much in the NL postseason mix as they play Game 2 of a three-game set. It will be Luis Severino and Eduardo Rodriguez after the Mets won 8-3 in last night’s affair. It was a rare off night for the Arizona offense, as Sean Manaea struck out 11 Diamondbacks over 6.2 innings.
It wasn’t a great spot for the Snakes, who just wrapped up a nine-game road trip and carried a six-game winning streak into their return to Chase Field against a Mets team that was already out west after playing the Padres. Sometimes you get a flat effort like that after a long roadie and the Snakes, who are 26-9 in the second half, were definitely flat.
So, I’m looking for a bounce back tonight from Arizona. Rodriguez has decent in his three starts, posting a 3.94 ERA with a 4.17 FIP over 16 innings of work. He’s struck out 11 and walked four and has done a really strong job of limiting hard contact. Because Jordan Montgomery swallowed 70 pitches in relief, the Diamondbacks pen is extremely well-rested. I also think a pitch-to-contact type like Rodriguez should be able to thrive with a solid Diamondbacks defense in reserve.
I’m also looking to fade Severino. He battled through five innings against the Padres last time out and only allowed one run, but he did walk four and I see some signs of fatigue creeping into the profile. He went 113 pitches for a complete game shutout against the Marlins two starts ago and that sticks out in my head. For starters, he had allowed 15 runs over 13 innings in three starts prior to that. Also, I think that’s the type of outing that has a lot of carryover for a guy that has thrown more MLB innings this season than he has since 2018.
Arizona has clearly the best offense in baseball in the second half and it’s basically been that way since the start of June. I trust they bounce back and like Rodriguez in this matchup.
Pick: Diamondbacks -125
