MLB Best Bets Today July 3:
A full dance card on the diamond is on tap for today and we don’t have any day games again. A rarity for a Wednesday, but with Independence Day looming tomorrow and a lot of day games on the docket, the schedule makers have a method to the madness.
We have a good mix of young and old, veteran and relative newbie, and a lot of competitively-lined games on the slate for today.
Top MLB Resources:
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Catch a new edition of the Double Play Podcast with Dustin Swedelson and yours truly Monday and Thursday.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 3:
Houston Astros (-118, 8.5) at Toronto Blue Jays
7:07 p.m. ET
Ronel Blanco and Yusei Kikuchi are the listed starters for this one north of the border between the Astros and Blue Jays. Blanco is coming off of a rough start with six runs allowed, including three homers, to the surging Mets, but Kikuchi has had three bad starts in a row with 13 runs allowed on 19 hits over 11 innings of work.
In fact, Kikuchi has struggled for a while now. For the full season, he has a 4.18 ERA with a 3.53 FIP, but he has a 7.12 ERA with a 5.27 FIP over his last 30.1 innings of work. He’s allowed four or more runs in five of those seven starts and has allowed a 49.5% Hard Hit% with a 14.1% Barrel%. That’s bad news for the Blue Jays, who were hoping to maximize his value as an impending free agent in the trade market. He’s given up 14 Barrels in his last seven starts and is up to a 10% Barrel% for the season with a 44.1% Hard Hit%.
Kikuchi’s best attributes have been strikeouts and low walk totals, but the Astros don’t strike out much and walk very little, as they are a very aggressive offense, particularly against lefties. Over the last 30 days, the Astros are 10th in wOBA against lefties with just a 4.4% BB%. They are eighth in SLG and are hitting .297 in that split, which basically comprises the entire time without Kyle Tucker, who still remains sidelined with the longest bruised shin ever.
The Blue Jays bullpen has had some major struggles lately as well. Over the last 30 days, they rank 28th in ERA at 5.10 and 28th in FIP at 4.73. If we cut the sample size to 14 days, they still have a FIP over 4 and rank 17th in that department along with a 5.02 ERA that ranks 23rd.
At time of writing, DK has the Astros 1st 5 Team Total Over at 1.5 and -166. If you can stomach the juice, I do really like that play, though I’d prefer not to pass along a -166 here in the article. The full game Team Total Over 4.5 is +110. I think they can get some offense against Kikuchi and off of the bullpen, especially since Chad Green, Nate Pearson, and Trevor Richards all worked yesterday. Pearson threw 32 pitches, so I doubt he’s available and Richards has worked back-to-back days.
Pick: Astros Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+110)
Los Angeles Angels (-115, 8.5) at Oakland Athletics
9:40 p.m. ET
The sportsbooks made a smart adjustment with Davis Daniel after his spectacular start last time out against the Tigers. Daniel went eight innings and struck out eight to almost double his 4.5 prop that we cashed at plus money. Today, Daniel takes the hill for the Angels against the Athletics and his strikeout prop sits at 5.5 and -115 both ways.
I’m actually still going to be a buyer in Daniel at this number, largely because of the matchup. As I talked about last time, the 27-year-old right-hander had a 5.33 ERA in Triple-A, but had a 3.73 FIP, mostly because of a 24.3% K%. The PCL plays like Coors Field in nearly all 10 ballparks. Teams are scoring 5.83 R?G with a .268/.359/.448 slash. Using BA/OBP/SLG, there are zero MLB teams at .268 or better (.263 highest), zero teams remotely close to a .359 OBP (.335 highest), and one team, the Orioles, has a SLG over .448. It’s a hard league to pitch in and pitches are impacted by the thin air and elevation in some parks.
According to Ben Palmer of Pitcher List, Daniel has a really good fastball and slider and those two pitches were indeed effective against the Tigers.
In that game, the Tigers were coming in with a 25% K% against righties over the previous 30 days and had a .278 wOBA with a 79 wRC+, so I postulated that Daniel would be able to work deep into the game and have the chance at punchies.
In this game, the A’s are coming in with a 27.8% K% against righties over the previous 30 days with a .278 wOBA and an 83 wRC+. If we look at the season as a whole, they have the lowest O-Contact% at 49.3%, meaning they make contact with less than half of the pitches they swing at outside the zone. They also have the lowest Z-Contact% at 82.4%, where the Z stands for pitches in the zone.
I think Daniel has the chance to work deep into this game as well and generate a ton of swing and miss. He’s basically pitching at sea level, so like I mentioned in his 2024 debut, his pitches should have more tilt to them.
Pick: Davis Daniel Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
