MLB Best Bets Today June 12
Baseball begins early and ends late today, as we’ve got a similar setup to Tuesday. There are only two games in each league and 11 interleague matchups on the slate. Unlike yesterday, though, we’ve got that early action with the earliest game going off at 1:10 p.m. ET and the latest game going off at 10:10.
That’s a long day of baseball to say the least and we’ll have another one tomorrow.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 12:
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers (-125, 7.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
A meeting in Motown between the Nationals and Tigers will feature Jake Irvin and Reese Olson, as a couple of surprising right-handers get together in the middle game of a three-game set. The Nationals drew first blood with an extra-inning win last night and have run their winning streak to four games.
Irvin is the bigger surprise between the two starts, as he’s got a 3.12 ERA with a 3.83 xERA and a 3.15 FIP in 75 innings of work. He had a 4.61 ERA with a 5.13 xERA and a 5.30 FIP in 24 big league starts over 121 innings last season. This season, the Nationals have altered his pitch mix to cut down on home runs and have chopped his BB% down from 10.2% to 4.7%. Irvin has actually allowed a higher Hard Hit% this season, but a lower Barrel% and the significant decrease in walks has been a huge help.
Irvin traded some sinkers for cutters and curveballs and has generated more swing and miss as a result, along with more chases and better overall control.
Olson comes in with a 3.43 ERA and a 3.06 FIP, so he’s been strong overall, but he’s allowed 13 runs on 18 hits in his last two starts over 9.1 innings. Some natural regression has absolutely leaked into the profile, but all of the hard contact he has allowed finally caught up with him. He’s got a 45.9% Hard Hit% against and that ranks in the Bottom 9%. His average exit velocity ranks in the Bottom 8%. So, he’s finally seeing the impacts of that.
The Tigers rank 28th in wRC+ over the last 14 days, a byproduct of the Kerry Carpenter injury and also pitchers adjusting to Wenceel Perez. The Nationals are only 22nd and have been a below average offense themselves, but Detroit’s offense is really in the tank without Carpenter. Since he hit the IL, the Tigers rank 26th in wRC+ against righties with a mark of 68.
With Olson’s recent struggles and Detroit’s inept offense, I like the Nationals at an underdog price here.
Pick: Nationals +105
Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays (-115, 8)
6:50 p.m. ET
Another interleague matchup has my attention today with the Cubs against the Rays down at Tropicana Field. It will be Javier Assad for Chicago and Aaron Civale for Tampa Bay, as a couple of struggling hurlers come together.
Civale actually has a 6.95 ERA over his last nine starts, but he does have a 4.82 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP in that span, so I do think there are some positive regression indicators in there. He’s allowed a .351 BABIP and has just a 61.5% LOB% in that span. The Rays are asking him to do something a little bit different than what he’s done throughout the course of his career. With his well below average extension, pitching up in the zone is a challenge for him. Hitters have taken advantage, as he’s allowed a lot of hard contact.
However, I think he’s in a good matchup here against the Cubs. Consider the following image:
These are the “Attack Zones” as defined by Statcast. The Hawk-Eye technology employed at ballparks is able to classify pitches in these zones. What I did this morning was run a query on how teams do in Zones 1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 13, 21, 22, and 23, as you can see by the checkmarks. Those are pitches that are up in the zone, ranging from the upper part of the heart of the plate to “competitive” pitches up top.
The Cubs rank 27th in batting average (.183), 27th in SLG (.307), and 24th in wOBA (.280) on pitches located in those zones. Those are the zones where Civale will be attempting to work with his cutter, four-seam, and sinker. Civale has been crushed recently by Baltimore, who ranks fifth in SLG in those zones, Toronto, who ranks 11th in wOBA in those zones, and the Mets, who rank eighth in wOBA in those zones.
So, I do think that this is a better matchup for Civale. On the flip side, Assad comes in with a 5.66 ERA and a 5.80 FIP in his last four starts with 14 runs allowed on 21 hits. He’s allowed one unearned run in that span, but the 13 walks stand out a lot to me, along with the spike in Barrel% up to 10.7%. He’s not locating very well right now and as a command-oriented pitcher with lesser margin for error than others, that is a bad sign.
The Cubs bullpen continues to be problematic and the Rays pen seems to have stabilized a bit. Also, Tampa Bay’s usage patterns recently have spread out the workload, so their top relievers are good to go.
Pick: Rays -115
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds (-112, 8)
7:10 p.m. ET
The second game of the Ohio Cup is tonight. The Guardians won last night and a victory here would guarantee at least a split in the season series and the Cup would go back to Cleveland for the 10th consecutive year. Obviously that is an enormous betting angle for tonight’s game with the prestige tied to the trophy, but there are other reasons why I like the Guardians tonight.
Let’s start with this one. They’re a slight underdog in a toss-up type of game and have the best bullpen in baseball. With Monday’s off day, nobody is unavailable tonight except for maybe Sam Hentges, who has worked three of the last four days. All other arms are on hand, though the pattern would suggest that Hunter Gaddis and Scott Barlow are the likeliest guys to be used because they weren’t yesterday. We could see Nick Sandlin as well.
But, first, it will be Tanner Bibee. I think Bibee is in the midst of a heater right now. Over his last five starts, he has a 2.12 ERA with a 2.67 FIP and a 32/6 K/BB ratio. The walk issues he had earlier in the season seem to be gone and he’s doing a really good job of preventing home runs with a 5.7% HR/FB% in that span. Over those five starts, he’s allowed just a 28.7% Hard Hit% and only two Barrels.
He also has a 13.8% SwStr% in that span and his last three starts have been 17%, 14.6%, and 19.8%. I think the Guardians have made some tweaks to properly leverage his arsenal and it shows.
Admittedly, I can’t really poke many holes in Lodolo’s profile. He has a 2.92 ERA with a 3.33 FIP in 52.1 innings with a strong 56/12 K/BB ratio. His contact management numbers mostly look good, though he’s had a few games with some hard-hit balls. Ultimately, I’m just thinking about how well the Guardians have fared against lefties this season. Over the last 30 days, they rank sixth in wRC+ at 120 and rank sixth at 117 for the season.
Bibee, to me, has more strikeout upside than Lodolo given the matchup. I also like Cleveland against lefties and the bullpen is the major selling point if the two starters do cancel out. The Reds used seven relievers in yesterday’s bullpen game and all of them threw at least 14 pitches. I think that’s an advantage to Cleveland as well.
Pick: Guardians -108
