MLB Best Bets Today June 26
After the schedule featured zero day games on Monday and Tuesday, we’ve got seven early starts out of 16 games on the betting board. A doubleheader between the Braves and Cardinals has one of those early starts after yesterday’s “rainout” with virtually no rain.
The other thing about today is that we have a bunch of random pitchers, call-ups, cast-offs, and two MLB debuts. It’ll be a wild day.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 26:
Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles (-198, 9)
6:35 p.m. ET
Perhaps tonight’s game goes differently than the first two in this series between the Guardians and Orioles, but the ball looked rocket-propelled in last night’s 10-8 Cleveland win. It will be even hotter tonight in Baltimore with storms in the area to drive up the sultry and moist conditions.
Carlos Carrasco and Grayson Rodriguez are the guys who will do battle tonight. Carrasco is coming off of an outstanding start against the Blue Jays, though he did get seven runs of support from the Guardians offense in the second inning that effectively took Toronto out of the game. Carrasco is absolutely a battler and I respect the hell out of the way he’s been able to hang in there.
That said, he also has a 5.40 ERA with a 4.93 xERA and a 4.78 FIP in his 65 innings of work. He’s allowed five or more runs five times in 13 starts this season and this is a relentless Orioles lineup. Three of those five starts with five or more runs have come in his last six outings. He’ll actually be pitching on the traditional four days rest for the first time since May 15, so I’m curious to see how that affects him.
Over the last 30 days, the Orioles own a .374 wOBA against righties. They’re a very aggressive offense when it comes to swinging the bat, so Carrasco’s questionable command will very much be put to the test here. Baltimore’s .528 SLG over the last 30 days against RHP is the highest by nearly 50 points.
Cleveland goes up against Rodriguez, who is having an excellent season, but he did allow seven runs in five innings last time out against the Astros. The Guardians are really good at avoiding strikeouts and are a top-five offense with two strikes because of how they battle. We’ve seen a lot of that in this series and this season. Plus, they’ve had immense success with RISP.
Even if Rodriguez is able to keep them at bay a little bit, both bullpens have been used a lot lately. Craig Kimbrel and Yennier Cano are pretty well-rested, though the Guardians jumped on Cano for some insurance last night over just nine pitches. Like I said, they are aggressive.
I don’t think Cade Smith or Emmanuel Clase are available again for Cleveland. I don’t believe Scott Barlow will be either. Pedro Avila threw 35 pitches yesterday, so Xzavion Curry lines up as the sacrificial lamb tonight if one is needed. The Guardians don’t have Thursday off and actually open up a series with the Royals and can put additional distance in the division.
They’ve been extremely responsible about monitoring reliever pitch counts, stress, and leverage. I’m not sure they’ll use anybody other than Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and Curry. Getting outs late in the game may be tricky and Carrasco is not a guy working deep into ballgames.
I think we see more offense again tonight.
Pick: Guardians/Orioles Over 9 (-115)
Minnesota Twins (-122, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks
9:40 p.m. ET
The Twins and Diamondbacks played to a 5-4 decision in favor of the Snakes last night in the opening game of this three-game set. Today’s game features Simeon Woods-Richardson and Ryne Nelson. It is the Nelson side of the handicap that I’m most interested in today.
Nelson comes in with a 5.18 ERA, 4.52 FIP, and a 4.58 xFIP in his 64.1 innings of work. He only has 43 strikeouts and 18 walks, so there are a lot of balls in play against him. He’s allowed a 43.2% Hard Hit% and a 9.5% Barrel%, both well above the league average. He’s actually allowed a 12.2% Barrel% over his last five starts.
The Twins are a top-five offense against righties over the last 30 days with a .343 wOBA and a 125 wRC+. They’ve also really cut down their K% this season, so I would expect that they have no problems putting balls in play with good contact quality against Nelson.
Nelson is also a guy who works in the middle to lower half of the zone. He’s not one of the guys throwing up in the zone a lot like so many pitchers these days. The Twins are 11th in SLG and wOBA in pitches in the Attack Zones where Nelson is most likely to be as defined by Statcast.
I think Over 2.5 at even or plus money for the 1st 5 is a good look here, especially since Royce Lewis isn’t hurt again yet.
Pick: Twins 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+100)
