MLB Best Bets Today October 9:
For the second, and only, time in the Division Series Round, we have all four games today. The only other time was when we had all of the Game 1s last Friday. So it will be a long day of edge-of-your-seat action on the diamond, as the two NL series could end today and the two AL series will swing one way or the other with both of them tied at 1-1.
I’ll run through all of today’s games chronologically with best bets where applicable.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 9:
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers (-115, 7)
3:08 p.m. ET (TBS)
Alex Cobb faces the always dangerous TBD in this one, as the Guardians and Tigers line up for Game 2. Turns out that the TBD is Keider Montero as the starter and then a full-fledged bullpen game for Detroit, so A.J. Hinch will look to mix and match his relievers to get the matchups he wants against Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. Much like Stephen Vogt tried to do with Kerry Carpenter in Game 2. Unfortunately, Emmanuel Clase threw his worst slider of the season and the one guy you really worry about in the Tigers lineup had the biggest hit of the series.
I lean Under here because of that reason. There are very few hitters that you really worry about between these two teams. Cobb hasn’t pitched since September 1, which is why this is a lean and not a play. I don’t know what he’s going to provide. But, he’s an extremely extreme ground ball guy, coming in at 61.2% in his three starts this season and 54.6% for his career. He’s great at limiting home runs as a result.
And we know Cleveland’s bullpen is elite. Up until the Clase inning, they had thrown 7.2 scoreless innings in the series and ranked fourth since 2000 in bullpen ERA during the regular season. Clase had a 0.61 ERA. He had only faced one batter in the eighth inning during the season and just wasn’t sharp. Guess we’ll see if he is if he’s called upon today.
Montero had a 4.76 ERA with a 5.10 xERA and a 5.15 FIP in 98.1 innings of work He went two scoreless innings in Game 1 after not pitching in the Wild Card Game. I’m actually surprised to see Hinch go this route, but I guess he either wants to use Tyler Holton as a middle-inning bridge or in Game 4, as the teams don’t have an off day tomorrow.
The other interesting thing is that Montero had reverse platoon splits, so righties posted a .281/.338/.492 slash with a .358 wOBA and lefties had a .249/.313/.435 slash with a .325 wOBA. Now I’m really intrigued to see how Vogt stacks his lineup.
No bet from me, but I’m obviously very invested.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (-118, 7.5)
5:08 p.m. ET (FS1)
The Phillies are on the brink of elimination as they go into today’s game against the Mets. It will be Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana here in Game 4. Suarez has been a postseason monster, posting a 1.62 ERA with a 2.68 FIP in 33.1 innings over seven starts and two relief outings. I’m sure that will look attractive to some bettors, but Suarez limped to the finish line in the regular season.
He returned from the IL on August 24 and posted a 5.74 ERA with a 4.73 FIP over his final seven starts. He walked 14 batters and gave up five homers. He got a bit unlucky based on his Hard Hit%, but allowed a .361 BABIP and exacerbated the batted ball problem with walks. Now he gets the ball not having pitched since September 27 and that was a two-inning start against the Nationals with six runs allowed on seven hits.
Quintana fired six shutout innings against the Brewers in his Wild Card Round outing. But, he was a negative regression candidate during the season with a 3.75 ERA, 4.49 xERA, and a 4.56 FIP in his 170.1 innings of work. He was fortunate to run a 78.2% LOB% to keep his ERA under 4. As I mentioned yesterday, the Phillies were the second-best offense in the second half against lefties by wRC+ and wOBA. It didn’t really help against Sean Manaea, but they did have nine hard-hit balls and two Barrels, so they made some good contact, but weren’t rewarded.
Both bullpens have been iffy in this series. A helping wind will be blowing out to RF, which may not help a ton against the two left-handed starters, but it can’t hurt. I like this one Over 7.5.
Pick: Phillies/Mets Over 7.5 (-105)
New York Yankees (-118, 8) at Kansas City Royals
7:08 p.m. ET
A couple of right-handers take center stage at Kauffman Stadium between the Yankees and Royals. This will be the first playoff game in Kansas City since October 28, 2015. The Royals went to Citi Field and beat the Mets in Game 5 to win the World Series, so their return home was for a parade and not a playoff game.
It is sure to be a fantastic environment and maybe that’ll give the Royals a bit of a boost. Maybe their season-long home success, especially relative to what they did on the road, will also help. Although, the Royals have scored nine runs in two games in this series, which triples the output that they had against the Orioles. They only scored 74 runs in September, easily the lowest in the league, and finished 30th in wOBA and wRC+ by a large margin.
Schmidt is another guy on an extended layoff, as he came back for five starts in September after missing two and a half months. He posted a 3.65 ERA with a 3.69 FIP in his return. He had some control issues and allowed a 46.3% Hard Hit%. His last start came on September 29, so it is hard to tell if he’ll be sharp here.
I do think Seth Lugo will be sharp. He was throughout the season with a 3.00 ERA, 3.72 xERA, and a 3.25 FIP. He had a 5.7% BB% and only gave up 16 homers in 206.2 innings of work. Low-walk, low-homer pitchers are typically pretty valuable in the postseason and Lugo fits that bill for me. He also just pitched last week in the Wild Card Round against the Orioles and went 4.1 innings with one run allowed on five hits.
Once they figured everything out, the Royals had a strong bullpen. They were eighth in reliever FIP in the second half and second at 2.73 in the month of September.
I’ll give KC a look today. I like Lugo a lot against this lineup and the bullpen has been top-tier for a while now.
Pick: Royals -102
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (-135, 8)
9:08 p.m. ET (FS1)
The Dodgers’ worst fears have come to fruition in this series. Their starters have been terrible. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler have all given 15 runs on 17 hits in 13.1 innings of work. Now LA faces elimination and will likely have to turn to 27-year-old rookie Landon Knack as either a starter or a bulk guy in Game 4. Knack had a 3.65 ERA with a 3.78 xERA and a 4.72 FIP during the regular season, as he allowed 14 HR in 69 innings to drive up his FIP.
He had a strikeout per inning and a low walk rate, but he’s a fly ball guy who throws a lot of strikes and those types of guys can be victimized by the long ball. Padres hitters have already clubbed eight home runs in the series and have a .538 SLG. It looks like a tough situation for LA today.
The Padres will send out Dylan Cease, who was excellent during the regular season with a 3.47 ERA, 3.32 xERA, and a 3.10 FIP, but he was not sharp in his Game 1 start against the Dodgers. He allowed five runs on six hits over 3.1 innings. I had Over 2.5 Walks Allowed, as he only walked two, but did give up a lot of hard contact and was not sharp at all.
He’s actually going on short rest here, as that game was October 5, but he threw 82 pitches, so the Padres feel comfortable bringing him back. I’m not entirely sold on that move, but they did not roster Matt Waldron and Joe Musgrove needs Tommy John surgery. The bullpen is in excellent shape for the Padres, as they used four relievers yesterday, but Tanner Scott is the only one who has worked three times in the series.
I still go back to Cease’s control issues as a worry for me against the Dodgers. Credit the Padres for throwing a lot of strikes in this series. They’ve only walked nine batters in the three games and only three Dodgers (Betts, T. Hernandez, Smith) account for all nine of the free passes.
No play from me in this one, but I won’t be surprised to see the series end, as the line implies.
