MLB Best Bets Today September 18:
It is a rare Wednesday in Major League Baseball in that we have only three day games on the slate. Action begins in Chicago with the first matinee at 2:20 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks, Rockies, White Sox, and Angels all play early. Otherwise, all of the games are night games around the big leagues.
We’ve got a lot of 7 and 7.5 totals on the card. It’s cooling off now around the country, so that will definitely impact offense. We’ve even got a 6.5 out in San Diego. Some of it has to do with the pitching matchups and some of the arms on the slate, but the cooler, fall-like temperatures in a lot of locales have a negative impact on the flight of the baseball. Keep that in mind as we head towards the end of the regular season.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for September 18:
Atlanta Braves (-155, 8.5) at Cincinnati Reds
6:40 p.m. ET
Spencer Schwellenbach and Jakob Junis are the listed hurlers for today’s game in Cincinnati, as the Braves and Reds continue their three-game set. We saw a 6-5 affair last night, as the Braves scored early and the Reds scored late, but I’m expecting a lower-scoring affair tonight.
Schwellenbach had a hiccup against the Blue Jays a couple of starts ago, but he’s been terrific for the most part this season. He’s got a 3.73 ERA with a 3.35 FIP and a 113/20 K/BB ratio. He doesn’t hurt himself with walks and has a terrific Barrel% at 5.6%. He has allowed six of his 16 Barrels in his last two starts against the Blue Jays and Dodgers, so I guess there are some mild concerns about wearing down late in the season.
But, the Reds only have a 92 wRC+ over the last 30 days. They also have a K% north of 24% in that span, which should bode well for a guy like Schwellenbach.
Cincinnati has gotten some good work from Junis since acquiring him from the Brewers and he was really good for Milwaukee as well. As a Red, Junis has a 3.00 ERA with a 3.34 FIP in 30 innings of work with a stellar 23/2 K/BB ratio. He’s also only allowed three homers out of 114 batters while leveraging his above average slider at a very high rate.
The Braves have had issues with righties all season and rank 23rd in wOBA against RHP over the last 30 days. Junis has had back-to-back five-inning appearances with one run allowed on four hits over 10 innings with an 8/1 K/BB ratio.
Both bullpens are in good shape here, especially with the primary guys, so I like the Under in this one.
Pick: Braves/Reds Under 8.5 (-115)
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (-118, 8)
8:05 p.m. ET
It was a race to the bat rack last night in Arlington, as the Rangers beat the Blue Jays 13-8. It could be a different story tonight with Bowden Francis and Cody Bradford, as both guys are having very nice seasons. Francis has actually flirted with multiple no-hitters already and Bradford has emerged as a viable arm for a team ravaged by pitching injuries.
But, Francis is a guy that has a lot of negative regression signs in the profile and a key injury for the Blue Jays is something on my radar for today and beyond. Francis has a 3.50 ERA with a 4.49 FIP and a 4.20 xFIP over his 92.2 innings of work. He has a terrific K/BB ratio, but has given up 16 homers. He’s a fly ball guy and will make his first start without the services of Daulton Varsho, who actually left Francis’ last start with a shoulder injury. He’s been out for a week and the news came down today that his season is over.
Varsho is +27 Defensive Runs Saved this season after being +29 last season. He’s also 16 Outs Above Average per Statcast, ranking among the best outfielders in the game. Francis is a fly ball guy like I mentioned and his success has been heavily tilted towards his .209 BABIP.
The Blue Jays rank 23rd in wOBA against lefties over the last 30 days, so that gives me some faith in Bradford, who is looking to bounce back from getting crushed by the Diamondbacks. By the luck of the draw, almost all of Bradford’s appearances this season have been at home, where he has a 2.57 ERA and a .174/.210/.315 slash against with a .228 wOBA in 49 innings of work.
Francis is a regression candidate missing an elite defensive piece and Bradford is in the friendly confines of home, where he has shined this season. Both of these bullpens have been burning piles of trash of late, so I’ll avoid that and just roll with Texas for the 1st 5.
Pick: Rangers 1st 5 (-120)
New York Yankees (-122, 7.5) at Seattle Mariners
9:40 p.m. ET
Nestor Cortes and Bryce Miller are the listed starters for the Yankees and Mariners, respectively, for this late one at T-Mobile Park. My focus in this start is on Miller, who has been outstanding in home games this season. He allowed four runs to the Red Sox in his first start and four runs to the Phillies on August 3. Otherwise, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in 13 of his 15 starts in the PNW.
Over 90.1 innings, he’s got a 1.99 ERA and a 103/19 K/BB ratio, holding the opposition to a .184/.233/.290 slash with a .232 wOBA. That’s a 30% K% and a 5.5% BB% over 343 batters faced.
Also, Miller has gotten both lefties and righties out with great proficiency at home. He’s allowed a .185/.249/.321 slash with a .251 wOBA to lefties and a .182/.217/.258 slash and a .211 wOBA to righties.
In 12 of those 15 starts, he’s gotten at least 17 outs. The Yankees are good at working counts, but Miller has a 5.9% BB%, so I don’t see him walking a lot of batters tonight. Maybe he won’t go Over 5.5 Strikeouts, which I do like a bit as well, but I prefer the Over 16.5 Outs Recorded prop here. He’s going to pitch ahead in the count a lot and the Yankees really don’t have that many good hitters outside of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Most hitters are poor in two-strike counts.
I expect a lot of them here and Miller to do everything he can to give his team a shot.
Pick: Bryce Miller Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110)
