MLB Best Bets Today September 25:
Fifteen games are scheduled for today in Major League Baseball, but the Braves and Mets are not going to play. MLB may be looking at a contingency policy to play elsewhere because buckets and buckets of rain will drop on Atlanta today and tomorrow. Right now, the teams would have to play a doubleheader on Monday and then whoever is the Wild Card would have to play right away on Tuesday.
Hopefully everything else goes off without a hitch. We’ve got a big battle for the AL Wild Card and then that NL Wild Card chase, which may be on hold for a couple of days. Otherwise, the other big story is the final series at the Oakland Coliseum. It can be tricky to know who is invested and who isn’t.
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That said, keep an eye out on player props. Shohei Ohtani is batting .301. He’s already had a historic season, but he’d love to finish at .300 or better. Manny Machado, Eugenio Suarez, and Matt Olson all have 29 homers. Rafael Devers, Jake Burger, and Shea Langeliers have 28. Marcell Ozuna has 39. Kyle Schwarber and Brent Rooker have 38. Guys like round numbers and some may have contract incentives to consider. Those are good wagering angles at this time of the year.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for September 25:
Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
6:40 p.m. ET
Let’s go ahead and start with one of those player prop benchmarks. Freddy Peralta comes into this one with 193 strikeouts. He gave himself a chance at his second straight 200-strikeout season with nine punchies against the Phillies last time out. He’ll be the Game 1 starter for the Brewers on Tuesday in the Wild Card Round, so he’s got an extra day of rest and baseball lifer Pat Murphy seems like a guy who would understand and appreciate the chase for a number.
A lot of teams are striking out a lot this month. The Pirates have the 12th-highest K%, but 24.2% is a lot of whiffs. They have a 76 wRC+ this month and I have to think the whole Rowdy Tellez thing has really alienated and upset this ballclub going into the final week of the season. I can’t imagine there will be a lot of engaged or excited personalities to play out the string yet again.
The Pirates have lost eight of 11 since sweeping the Marlins, have no chance at finishing .500 or better, and really only have Paul Skenes’ final start on Saturday to hang their hats on.
Peralta has a 13.1% SwStr% on the year and has run five straight starts at 11.8% or better, even though he hasn’t had a ton of strikeouts of late. He’s still getting the whiffs and I think he’ll get plenty here.
Pick: Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians (-148, 7.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
Guardians manager Stephen Vogt has done a masterful job as a rookie skipper and I think he has a tremendous feel for the game. We’ve got a matchup tonight between Jakob Junis and Joey Cantillo in what will be Cantillo’s last start of the regular season. I think he’s shown enough to be part of the playoff roster for Cleveland, especially as another lefty along with Tim Herrin and a guy capable of going multiple innings.
He’s also been pretty good lately, as he’s allowed three runs (two earned) on eight hits in his last 16.1 innings of work. He’s faced the White Sox, Rays, and Twins in that span. The Reds offense is limping to the finish line. They were shut down by Tanner Bibee last night and have a .294 wOBA with an 82 wRC+ here in the month of September.
I think this is a spot where Cantillo gets a little bit longer of a leash. When he took a perfect game into the seventh against the White Sox, he went 99 pitches. In his next outing he threw five shutout against the Rays, but got pulled at 78 pitches. He was increased to 86 in his next start.
I could see this as a spot where Cantillo gets a chance to get up into the 90s. He’s on an extra day of rest and Vogt’s Guardians clinched a bye in the AL playoffs with last night’s win. He’ll definitely want to keep the relievers as sharp as possible because they won’t start the postseason until Saturday October 5, but I also think he’s very aware of the workloads that those guys have had.
Cantillo’s Outs Recorded prop is set at 15.5 with +125 on the Over. I think this is worth a shot. Progressive Field plays as a decent pitcher’s park when it cools down and Cantillo is a lefty. The Reds have a .226 wOBA and a 35 wRC+ against southpaws over the last 30 days.
Pick: Joey Cantillo (CLE) Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+125)
