MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
This week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update wraps up the unofficial first half of the 2024 season, one that has been up & down overall for all of the angles I have been tracking daily. The final day before the break killed any profits we were chasing for the last seven days, but all things considered, the drill-down systems have been on a reasonably strong surge. The highlights of these lately have been the small underdog, streaks, and overpriced bullpens without starting pitcher edge systems.
For those of you perhaps new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or in the least, minimize losses. It has done so in every year I have shared the logic. This season has been a somewhat volatile one for the “easiest” angle, and although we still remain in negative territory for this simplest of the systems, I have preached that diligent patience is key to letting this methodology bloom.
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Looking back at last summer, some VSiN readers who were perhaps looking for a shortcut asked what would take time out of the process. That led to THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. You will see that by simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent that you would have netted +45.66 units in 2023. That is a pretty nice 2.2% return for a very simple yet very fundamentally sound methodology. The ROI for this year is -3.2% after a prolonged period of up & down results. Looking at the “easiest way” results since my last bullpen update by day:
Monday 7/8: 6-1, +4.6 units
Tuesday 7/9: 6-2, +3.2 units
Wednesday 7/10: 4-9, -8.15 units
Thursday 7/11: 3-7, -5.01 units
Friday 7/12: 7-5, +0.53 units
Saturday 7/13: 10-5, +4.16 units
Sunday 7/14: 4-9, -9.35 units
Overall, the last seven days produced a record of 40-38 for -10.02 units, leaving us at –41.37 units for the season. VSiN readers who have followed me for years know this is well below the usual level of return. I wouldn’t blame you for bailing on the “easiest method.” I will still be tracking this angle for my wagering if that helps, as it is a foundational belief that drives this system for me, and peaks and valleys are part of it. Considering that the average MLB bettor playing every game for the season would be approximately -137 units down with average performance, being -41.37 units down for this system is still advantageous for such a simplistic system betting every game. Narrowing down the plays and using greater discernment in your baseball wagering can provide an even bigger edge. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to the MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
I do narrow the plays with what I believe are more sharpened systems employing some various situations. Here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 7/14:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the ’24 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. At the break, the record of this angle is slightly negative at 69-28 for -3.3 units.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 68-40 for -21.49 units and an ROI of -19.9%.
Fading overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 42-28 since opening day 2024 and has lost -18.31 units, a season low ROI of -26.2%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 205-242 record for -6.43 units (ROI -1.4%).
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 183-186 record for +14.68 units (ROI 4.0%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
Worse bullpens struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 115-137 for -17.16 units. The three-game teams are 56-59 for +0.61 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 127-116 for -15.15 units (-6.2% ROI) thru Sunday 7/14.
Better bullpen teams thwarted potentially lengthy losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 115 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/23 and these teams are 63-52 for +5.58 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 18-8, +10.11-unit performance over the last four weeks.
These simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that were accumulated in games through Sunday, 7/14:
Key MLB Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 7/14)
Top 5 MLB Bullpen ERAs
1. CLEVELAND: 2.62
2. ATLANTA: 2.94
3. MILWAUKEE: 3.35
4. LA DODGERS: 3.42
5. CINCINNATI: 3.45
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen ERAs
30. COLORADO: 5.83
29. TORONTO: 4.91
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 4.72
27. LA ANGELS: 4.53
26. PITTSBURGH: 4.39
Top 5 MLB Bullpen WHIPs
1. CLEVELAND: 1.06
2. ATLANTA: 1.15
3. LA DODGERS: 1.15
4. SEATTLE: 1.15
5. MINNESOTA: 1.17
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.61
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.47
28. KANSAS CITY: 1.4
27. ARIZONA: 1.36
26. TORONTO: 1.35
Top 5 MLB Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. NY METS: 10.41
2. PHILADELPHIA: 10.16
3. CLEVELAND: 9.64
4. TEXAS: 9.44
5. MINNESOTA: 9.41
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. ARIZONA: 7.41
29. KANSAS CITY: 7.42
28. COLORADO: 7.44
27. TORONTO: 7.87
26. ST LOUIS: 8.16
Top 5 MLB Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. MINNESOTA: 0.83
2. ATLANTA: 0.89
3. MILWAUKEE: 0.93
4. BOSTON: 0.96
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 0.96
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.76
29. TORONTO: 1.73
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.66
27. PHILADELPHIA: 1.65
26. SAN DIEGO: 1.61
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since 7/8:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. CINCINNATI: +9 points
2. CHICAGO CUBS: +8
T-3. LA ANGELS: +7
T-3. KANSAS CITY: +7
5. ARIZONA: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -9 points
2. TORONTO: -8
T-3. NY METS: -5
T-3. COLORADO: -5
5. SAN FRANCISCO: -4
Steve’s Current MLB Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 7/15)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. ATLANTA: 30
2. CLEVELAND: 28
3. LA DODGERS: 19
4. MINNESOTA: 18
5. HOUSTON: 18
6. PHILADELPHIA: 17
7. MILWAUKEE: 14
8. CHICAGO CUBS: 11
9. NY YANKEES: 10
10. BALTIMORE: 10
11. TEXAS: 10
12. CINCINNATI: 10
13. ST. LOUIS: 9
14. SEATTLE: 8
15. LA ANGELS: 8
16. BOSTON: 6
17. TAMPA BAY: 3
18. OAKLAND: 3
19. SAN FRANCISCO: 2
20. MIAMI: 1
21. PITTSBURGH: 0
22. ARIZONA: -2
23. WASHINGTON: -4
24. SAN DIEGO: -5
25. KANSAS CITY: -5
26. DETROIT: -7
27. NY METS: -8
28. TORONTO: -13
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -18
30. COLORADO: -40
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
As we head out of the All-Star Break, there will be just two teams on 3+ game winning streak (LAA, PIT) and two teams on a 3+ game losing skids (CWS, SEA).
