Sunday Night Baseball: Cardinals vs. Phillies
Fans will be seeing red and a lot of it during ESPN Sunday Night Baseball on June 2, as the St. Louis Cardinals take on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Cardinals have hit the skids in this series, as they’ll send Lance Lynn to the hill in hopes of avoiding a sweep, on the heels of winning 11 out of 14 games. The Phillies will look to add yet another win to the ledger after crossing the 40-win mark on Friday.
How to Watch Cardinals vs. Phillies
Where: ESPN
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When: Sunday June 2, 7 p.m. ET
Cardinals vs. Phillies MLB Odds
St. Louis Cardinals +120 // Philadelphia Phillies -142
Total: 9 (-122/-102)
Cardinals vs. Phillies Game Preview
A lot of people have criticized the Phillies’ strength of schedule this season. It is June 2 and they have played six games against teams .500 or better per Baseball-Reference, which does take into account the fact that the Cardinals are now 27-29, even though they were 27-27 on Friday, so it counts as a game against a team with a losing record. Had the Cardinals won yesterday, they would have been .500 again and the games would have gone in the other column.
But, here we are with the Phillies, who are 41-18 and a big reason why those other teams have losing records, by the way, in another game as a solid favorite. Walker is making his seventh start of the season and has a 5.51 ERA with a 6.17 xERA and a 5.29 FIP. Remember that Spencer Turnbull, who served as Saturday’s hero when Ranger Suarez was hit on the hand by a comebacker, was removed from the rotation for Walker. This season, Walker has the lowest average fastball velocity of his career and has already allowed six homers in 32.2 innings of work.
Lynn has been toeing the line of regression. He has a 3.45 ERA, but a 4.13 xERA and a 4.25 FIP over his 57.1 innings. He’s already making his 12th start of the season here. After giving up 44 homers in 183.2 innings last season, he has only allowed seven thus far in 2024 and has pitched pretty well more often than not. He has allowed four earned runs four times, but has also allowed one or zero earned runs in six of his 11 outings.
Lynn, who allowed a 10.4% Barrel% last season, has shaved that down to 8.8% this season, while Walker, who allowed a 6.8% Barrel% in 2023, has allowed a 13.3% mark in 2024. He actually didn’t allow a Barrel last start to the Giants, yet still gave up six runs in six innings. He’s allowed a 47.6% Hard Hit%. His HH% and Barrel% are both career-worsts in the Statcast era, which dates back to his first full season in the bigs back in 2015.
With warm temps and a slight breeze blowing out, I think Walker continues to struggle and Lynn also runs into a tough matchup. The Phillies are fifth in wRC+ over the last 14 days and fourth in Hard Hit% in that span.
I prefer the 1st 5 Over to the full-game over in this one, even if it is a little chalky.
Pick: Cardinals/Phillies 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-140)
Cardinals vs. Phillies Player Props
Nolan Gorman Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-105)
Gorman has been really hot of late, posting a .281/.343/.625 slash over the last 14 days. After getting off to a really rough start, he’s up to 10 homers and has a 113 wRC+. Lefties own a .379/.440/.606 slash with a .449 wOBA against Walker this season. Gorman is on a heater and draws a favorable platoon matchup here against a low-strikeout pitcher, as it should neutralize his K%, which sits at nearly 36% this season.
