Sunday Night Baseball: Diamondbacks vs. Astros:
The reigning NL champs and the four-time AL champs dating back to 2017 meet on Sunday Night Baseball, as the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Houston Astros. It will be Ryne Nelson vs. Justin Verlander in the series finale, as the Astros look for a sweep.
Houston has won the first two games by a combined 19-5 score, as the D-Backs are desperately looking for some consistency from the rotation. Will they get a good effort from Nelson tonight in hopes of salvaging a game in the series?
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How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Astros
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday September 8, 7:10 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks vs. Astros MLB Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks +124 // Houston Astros -148
Total: 8 (-118/-102)
Diamondbacks vs. Astros Game Preview
As good teams and good organizations often do, the Astros flipped the switch at the right time. This is a team that was 12 games under .500 by May 8 and 10 games out of first place on June 20, only to take over sole possession of first a month later. They were as high as six games up on Labor Day.
The Diamondbacks have a bit of a similar story this season. They started slowly and were seven games under .500 heading into June. Since June 1, the Snakes are 54-32 and have the best offense in baseball by several metrics, including weighted on-base average (wOBA). They’ve never had a lead in the division chasing down the powerhouse Dodgers, but they are firmly entrenched in the playoff picture as one of the Wild Card contenders.
Nelson has been a godsend this season for Torey Lovullo’s ballclub. Jordan Montgomery, who was signed mere days before the season started, has not been the investment that the front office thought he’d be. Merrill Kelly has been limited to nine starts. Eduardo Rodriguez has only made six. Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt have been good, but maybe not as consistent as expected.
But, Nelson, who had a 5.31 ERA with a 5.07 FIP last season over 144 innings has transformed into a legitimate rotation option. He has a 4.15 ERA with a 3.72 FIP on the year in 143 innings, so he should set a new high in innings pitched this year to go along with his other improvements. Most notably, he has a 2.88 ERA in 56.1 innings here in the second half. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five starts and has gone more than six innings in each of them.
Verlander is making his 14th start of the season and it does seem like Father Time may finally have come for the veteran right-hander. He has a 4.52 ERA with a 4.73 FIP over 71.2 innings of work. His K% is down and his home run rate is up, as he’s still around the plate a ton. That being said, Verlander’s Hard Hit% of 33.2% is the lowest he’s had since 2019 and his 7.8% Barrel% is better than league average. He’s just a fly ball guy, so the home runs are a byproduct of that.
I like the Diamondbacks here with new-look Nelson up against Verlander. Both bullpens are well-rested and I do think there’s a path for both offenses to find success, but Nelson is on the rise and Verlander is on the decline in a lot of respects.
Pick: Diamondbacks +124
Diamondbacks vs. Astros Player Props
Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-115)
I also like a home run prop here with Suarez, who is batting .295 in the second half with 15 long balls. Verlander has what are called “reverse platoon splits”, in that he’s a right-handed pitcher who has been hit harder by righties. Righties own a .295/.352/.452 slash line against him this season with a .351 wOBA. As a point of reference, Trea Turner, Teoscar Hernandez, and Elly De La Cruz all have a wOBA around .351.
