Lance Lynn vs. Rich Hill wraps up this week in baseball
Sunday Night Baseball for August 6 features the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres. Many would have looked at the schedule and expected a game between these two teams at this point in the season to be more impactful in the standings, but the Dodgers are three games clear of the second-place Giants and nine games in front of the fourth-place Padres. San Diego has underwhelmed this season and opting not to be a seller may ultimately be an ill-advised choice, as the Friars are three games back in the Wild Card and are under .500 entering tonight.
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Dodgers vs. Padres betting odds
Dodgers -125 / Total: 9.5
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Dodgers vs. Padres Side Analysis
Two Trade Deadline movers square off here with Lance Lynn and Rich Hill, as the Dodgers draw a left-handed opponent in this one. Along with adding Lynn and reuniting with reliever Joe Kelly, the Dodgers prioritized guys that could hit southpaws at the Deadline with the additions of Amed Rosario and Kike Hernandez. This will be the fifth game in six days facing a left-handed starter for the Dodgers, so Rosario and Hernandez have gotten a lot of recent reps, along with Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor, who has regularly been in there for JD Martinez.
Martinez returned last night, but the Dodgers have been without Max Muncy for the last two games, so we’ll see if he can return to the lineup while dealing with some wrist discomfort. Los Angeles is just 24th in batting average against lefties (.238), but ninth in on-base percentage (.335) because of a league-leading 11.5% BB% and third in slugging percentage (.462) by virtue of leading the league in homers with 56 in that split.
This will be Hill’s Padres debut with a 4.76 ERA and a 4.44 FIP over 22 starts with the Pirates. It will be the second start for Lynn with the Dodgers after allowing three runs (all solo HR) in seven innings against the A’s. Lynn had a 6.47 ERA with a 5.21 FIP in 21 starts with the White Sox, but the Dodgers are attempting to fix him and started by greatly increasing his fastball usage in his first outing. He threw nearly 69% fastballs after topping out at 56.3% back on May 1.
The Padres are only a league-average offense against righties this season because of a really high walk rate. Where the Dodgers have a low BA against lefties, but good stats otherwise, San Diego is 10th in on-base percentage (.324) because of an 11.3% BB%. However, the Padres only have a .399 SLG and hadn’t hit for much power in that split until July. Since July 1, they have a .474 SLG against righties that ranks seventh. They also have the second-lowest K% at 17.4%, so they’re putting a lot of balls in play.
Dodgers vs. Padres Total Analysis
While this is Sunday “Night” Baseball with a 7 p.m. ET start, it will 4 p.m. at Petco Park, so it will still be quite warm with temps in the low 80s at first pitch. Usually this is a ballpark that really suppresses offense, but it will be warm and even a little humid with a slight breeze blowing out, so it should be a good evening for hitters.
Lynn has allowed 31 homers in just 126.2 innings pitched and gave up those three against the A’s with extreme fastball usage, so that could give the bats a boost on the San Diego side. He allowed a lot of hard contact against a lesser Oakland lineup and has a stiffer test here.
Hill doesn’t generate many swings and misses at this stage of his career with a 7% swinging strike rate for the season and only two games in double digits. He can also encounter trouble with his control, though he’s been better about that this season with an 8.9% BB%, which is just a little worse than league average.
Handicapping the bullpen fatigue is always an important exercise. In this game, both pens are in pretty good shape, as two Dodger relievers – lefties Caleb Ferguson and Alex Vesia – have worked back-to-back days, while everybody looks to be available and relatively fresh for the Padres.
Dodgers vs. Padres Best Bets
This looks like a pretty decent matchup for Lynn, in that lefties are slashing .325/.386/.614 against him this season with 18 homers and a .420 weighted on-base average. For comparison, Freddie Freeman has a .421 wOBA, so lefties have collectively hit like Freeman against Lynn. In this start, though, he’ll only face three lefties (unless Matt Carpenter somehow plays), so it’s a better matchup for him than it is for Hill in my opinion.
So, I do like the Dodgers at -125 (DraftKings) or the best line you can find. I also think Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases at +125 (DK) or the best line you can find is a worthy bet. Soto is batting .333/.446/.747 in the second half and .292/.444/.591 against righties for the season as a left-handed batter against a guy in Lynn who has been very bad in that split.
Picks: Dodgers -125 ; Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
