Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, October 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Incredibly, since the start of the 2014 WS, teams that scored two or fewer runs in the prior game have been on an incredible 23-9 surge. (+16.17 Units, 50.5% ROI)
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
Trend: LAD has a record of 5-12 this season as a road underdog
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
Road underdogs are 1-9 in the last 10 WS games after hitting three or more home runs in the prior WS game (-7.7 Units, 77% ROI)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 9:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the 2024 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically, and we will be looking for a bounce back in ‘25. *In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 9-9 for +1.92 units.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range. Those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. *In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 7-7 for +0.82 units.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
MLB Betting Trends & Systems for the Postseason
Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 73-72 SU (-29.41 units, ROI: -20.3%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs LAD)
Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 52-58 SU (-20.98 units, ROI: -19.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
Series wins status
Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 36-40 SU (-23.73 units, ROI: -31.2%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 44-53 SU (-30.43 units, ROI: -31.4%) and 29-68 on run lines (-29.65 units, ROI: -30.6%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES
Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 78-72, Overs have produced a return of +24.53 units, an ROI of 16.4%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
Nine Top World Series MLB Betting Trend Systems
Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice MLB betting trend systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently?
WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home-field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on an 18-27 slide in the last 45 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-16.69 Units, -37.1% ROI)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
WORLD SERIES system #4:
Overall, on totals, there has been a very slight lean to the Over in World Series games over the last 15 years. However in games with totals of eight or higher, Under holds an edge of 19-13-1 in that span (+3.8 Units, 11.9% ROI)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
WORLD SERIES system #5:
World Series teams have struggled putting back-to-back wins together recently, going 9-21 in the game following up a WS win (-16.75 Units, -55.8% ROI)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
WORLD SERIES system #8:
Incredibly, since the start of the 2014 WS, teams that scored two or fewer runs in the prior game are on an incredible 23-9 surge. (+16.17 Units, 50.5% ROI)
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
WORLD SERIES system #9:
Washington’s improbable Game 7 win in the 2019 World Series snapped a streak of nine straight road underdogs losing after hitting three or more home runs in the prior WS game (-7.7 Units, 77% ROI)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 966-838 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.32 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow if LAD wins tonight)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS +124 (+12 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-NYY OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (107-68) at (906) NEW YORK-AL (101-72)
Trend: NYY good record vs. RH starters (80-47, +10.62 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-148 vs LAD)
Trend: LAD trending Over at night (78-46 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: LAD has a record of 5-12 this season as a road underdog
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
Trend: Over the total is 10-6-1 this season when LAD is a road underdog
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Teams down 0-2 in the World Series have won four of the last five Game 3s in the World Series
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (107-68) at (906) NEW YORK-AL (101-72)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 10-2 vs. AL teams (+6.64 units) since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)
