The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, October 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 44-53 SU (-30.43 units, ROI: -31.4%) and 29-68 on run lines (-29.65 units, ROI: -30.6%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES

World Series Game 4s have been the most clearly dominated by the road teams, 14-5 since ’04 (+9.9 Units, 52.1% R.O.I.)
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)

Trend: Teams down 0-3 in the World Series have lost all eight follow-up Game 4s since 1989
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)

Trend: LA Dodgers have a record of 6-12 this season as a road underdog
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 11 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is more than two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoffs season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the 2024 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically, and we will be looking for a bounce back in ‘25.
* In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 10-9 for +3.16 units.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range. Those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
* In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 8-7 for +2.06 units.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)

Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 73-73 SU (-30.89 units, ROI: -21.2%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 52-59 SU (-20.98 units, ROI: -18.9%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)

Series wins status
Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 36-41 SU (-25.21 units, ROI: -32.7%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)

Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 44-53 SU (-30.43 units, ROI: -31.4%) and 29-68 on run lines (-29.65 units, ROI: -30.6%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 78-73, Overs have produced a return of +23.45 units, an ROI of 15.5%. Total vig has been heavily shaded towards Unders.

Nine Top World Series MLB Betting Trend Systems

Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice MLB betting trend systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently? 

WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home-field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on an 18-28 slide in the last 46 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-18.17 Units, -39.5% ROI)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)

WORLD SERIES system #4:
Overall, on totals, there has been a very slight lean to the Over in World Series games over the last 15 years. However in games with totals of eight or higher, Under holds an edge of 20-13-1 in that span (+4.8 Units, 14.5% ROI.)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-NYY (o/u at 8.5)

WORLD SERIES system #5:
World Series teams have struggled putting back-to-back wins together recently, going 10-21 in the game following up a Series win (-15.51 Units, -50% ROI)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)

WORLD SERIES system #7:
World Series Game 4s have been the most clearly dominated by the road teams, 14-5 since 2004 (+9.9 Units, 52.1% ROI)
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)


WORLD SERIES system #8:
Incredibly, since the start of the 2014 World Series, teams that scored two or fewer runs in the prior game are on an incredible 23-10 surge. (+14.69 Units, 44.5% ROI)
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #6:

Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 83-96 (-49.42 units, ROI: -27.6%) in the next game since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Match: LA DODGERS +124 (+11 diff)

Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily. 

(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (107-68) at (906) NEW YORK-AL (101-72)
Trend: NYY good record vs. RH starters (80-48, +9.14 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)

Trend: Teams down 0-3 in the World Series have lost all eight follow-up Game 4s since 1989
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-148 vs. LAD)

Trend: LAD trending Over at night (78-47 O/U)
System Match: PLAY Over the total (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: LAD has a record of 6-12 this season as a road underdog
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+124 at NYY)

Trend: Over the total is 10-7-1 this season when LAD is a road underdog
System Match: PLAY Over the total (o/u at 8.5)

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