The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, October 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-53 SU (-34.43 units, ROI: -37%) and 28-65 on run lines (-28.15 units, ROI: -30.3%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. NYM)

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 37-23 SU (+17.59 units, ROI: 29.3%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. SD) 

Trend: Luis Severino is 8-19 (-9.23 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+124 at PHI)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. NYM), SAN DIEGO (+120 at LAD) 

Trend: LAD trending Over vs. divisional opponents (34-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in SD-LAD (o/u at 8)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that the majority of bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. NYM), LA DODGERS (-142 vs. SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. NYM), SAN DIEGO (+120 at LAD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 5-2 for +4.78 units.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (+124 at PHI) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’s) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record, for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
*In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 3-1 for +2.68 units.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (+124 at PHI) 

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the MLB betting trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable. 

Overall MLB Postseason Trends 

Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 63-68 SU (-33.41 units, ROI: -25.5%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS 

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 47-55 SU (-23.08 units, ROI: -22.6%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA

Home teams coming off a win in a series game have been a better option, 66-52 SU (+0.35 units, ROI: 0.3%) in that same time span.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS 

Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 65-41 SU (+18.99 units, ROI: 17.9%) and 56-50 on run lines (+14.9 units, ROI: 14.1%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 35-40 SU (-24.73 units, ROI: -33%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA 

Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-53 SU (-34.43 units, ROI: -37%) and 28-65 on run lines (-28.15 units, ROI: -30.3%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 28-48 SU (-12.77 units, ROI: -16.8%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, SAN DIEGO

Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 46-39 SU (+15.93 units, ROI: 18.7%) and 54-31 on run lines (+14.20 units, ROI: 16.7%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS 

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 63-62, Overs have produced a return of +20.25 units, an ROI of 16.2%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in both games

Divisional Round Angles
Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 54-32 SU (+9.44 units, ROI: 11%) and 47-39 on run lines (+16.49 units, ROI: 19.2%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 37-23 SU (+17.59 units, ROI: 29.3%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 30-17 SU (+13.7 units, ROI: 29.1%). These follow-up games also tend to go UNDER on totals, 26-19 (+5.2 units, ROI: 11.6%)
System Matches: PLAY – PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO
Also PLAY UNDER in both games

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3405-3004 (53.1%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -481.65 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. SD) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 83-94 (-46.77 units, ROI: -26.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs SD)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -142 (+18 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-PHI UNDER 8.5 (-0.5) 

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(961) NEW YORK-NL (92-74) at (962) PHILADELPHIA (95-68)
Trend: NYM worse during the day (32-37, -11.53 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS (+124 at PHI) 

(963) SAN DIEGO (95-70) at (964) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-64)
Trend: LAD slight Over vs. divisional opponents (34-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8) 

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(961) NEW YORK-NL (92-74) at (962) PHILADELPHIA (95-68)
Trend: Luis Severino is 8-19 (-9.23 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+124 at PHI)

Trend: PHI is 11-17 (-9.58 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last three seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (*if they fall into this line range, -148 currently) 

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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