Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 18, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): ARIZONA (+136 at SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+136 at TB), TEXAS (-108 at DET), CLEVELAND (-105 at BOS), ARIZONA (+136 at SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 117-101 for -12.79 units. As shown before with the -.08 unit return, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the ’24 season.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA, DETROIT, CLEVELAND
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 34-41 record, for -2.00 units. This angle did win just shy of a unit last week and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (+130 at SF), PLAY CLEVELAND (-105 at BOS), PLAY DETROIT (-110 vs TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1321-1717 (43.5%) for -165.75 units and an R.O.I. of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-105 at BOS), MIAMI (+136 at CHC)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2948-2584 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -394.72 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +136 (+21 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -112 (+33 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-BOS OVER 9 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
(951) MIAMI (4-15) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (11-7)
Trend: Miami has been slightly Over against NL Central/West (7-3 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: Chicago Cubs have been good at home (5-1, +4.60 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs MIA)
(953) ARIZONA (9-10) at (954) SAN FRANCISCO (8-11)
Trend: San Francisco trending Under at home (1-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(955) LOS ANGELES-AL (9-9) at (956) TAMPA BAY (10-9)
Trend: Tampa Bay trending Over at home (9-4 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(959) CLEVELAND (12-6) at (960) BOSTON (10-9)
Trend: Cleveland has been good against LH starters so far (4-0, +4.05 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-105 at BOS)
Trend: Boston has been trending Under during the day (1-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) MIAMI (4-15) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (11-7)
Trend: Chicago Cubs is 13-3 (+8.38 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs MIA)
(953) ARIZONA (9-10) at (954) SAN FRANCISCO (8-11)
Trend: San Francisco is 12-3 (+7.20 units) at home as a favorite vs Divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs AZ)
Trend: San Francisco is 14-2 (+9.70 units) as a night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons (including 11-0 at HOME)
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs AZ)
(957) TEXAS (10-9) at (958) DETROIT (10-8)
Trend: Kenta Maeda has been bad during the day, going 8-21 (-19.84 units) since 2020
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-110 vs TEX)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY
