Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 21, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS), PLAY CLEVELAND (-192 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor looking for, but it is not a loss, and definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-148 vs BOS), BALTIMORE (+102 at KC), ST LOUIS (-166 vs. MIL), SAN DIEGO (-130 vs. TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS), PLAY LA DODGERS (-265 vs NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, HOUSTON, CINCINNATI, SEATTLE, ATLANTA, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in CWS-PHI, PLAY OVER in OAK-CLE, PLAY UNDER in MIL-STL, PLAY OVER in AZ-SF
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, DETROIT, MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE, ARIZONA, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL, CLEVELAND RL, SEATTLE RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 117-101 for -12.79 units. As shown before, with the -.08 unit return, results picked up last week, as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO, ATLANTA, SEATTLE GAME 1
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 14-6 for +1.66 units.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-265 vs NYM), FADE HOUSTON (-192 at WSH)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is negative at 19-10 for -0.88 units.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-192 vs OAK), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS), PLAY SEATTLE GAME 1 (-198 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 35-47 record for -6.80 units. This angle did win just shy of a unit last week and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+140 at STL), ARIZONA (-108 at SF), BALTIMORE (+102 at KC), LA ANGELS (+114 at CIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 23-19 for +5.16 units after a 6-10 for -3.96 units last week. The three-game teams are 14-12 for +4.11 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE BOSTON (+124 at PIT), FADE CINCINNATI (-135 vs LAA), FADE TORONTO (+110 at SD)
3+ games – FADE NY METS (+215 at LAD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 18-14 for -1.55 units after a rough 1-5 last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+140 at STL), CLEVELAND (-192 vs. OAK), PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs. CWS), ATLANTA (-162 vs. TEX), SEATTLE GAME 1 (-192 at COL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%. For 2024, these teams are 12-10 for -1.16 units, a slower start but nothing to suggest a shift is in order.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-265 vs NYM), PITTSBURGH (-148 vs BOS), LA ANGELS (+114 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-130 vs TOR)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 320-294 (52.1%) for +39.66 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-166 vs. MIL), COLORADO GAME 1 (+164 vs. SEA)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1465-1378 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -182.04 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+140 at STL), PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS), BALTIMORE (+102 at KC)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1325-1724 (43.5%) for -168.55 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+110 at NYY), TEXAS (+136 at ATL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2957-2589 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -391.54 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, SAN FRANCISCO, WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 831-712 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.35 units for backers and a ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-130 vs TB), COLORADO GAME 1 (+164 vs SEA)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 246-202 (54.9%) for +40.88 units and a ROI of 9.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (-166 vs MIL), PLAY COLORADO GAME 1 (+164 vs SEA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 134-109 run (+51.72 units, ROI: 21.3%).
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-148 vs BOS), PLAY COLORADO (+164 vs SEA)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 167-86 (+14.15 units, ROI: 5.6%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS), PLAY ATLANTA (-162 vs TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 119-85 (+21.10 units, ROI: 10.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 151-98 in their last 249 tries (+25.02 units, ROI: 10%).
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+215 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 18-44 (-10.16 units, ROI: -16.4%) in their last 62 tries.
System Matches: FADE NY METS (+215 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 62-64 (-27.88 units, ROI: -22.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-162 vs TEX), FADE NY METS (+215 at LAD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +215 (+70 diff), DETROIT +100 (+31 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +260 (+75 diff), BOSTON +124 (+27 diff), WASHINGTON +160 (+27 diff), COLORADO GAME 1 +164 (+20 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -130 (+19 diff), CINCINNATI -135 (+16 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEX-ATL UNDER 10 (-0.7)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(925) SEATTLE (10-10) at (926) COLORADO (4-16) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Seattle is 12-3 (+6.90 units) as a ROAD favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-198 at COL)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 0-11 as an underdog of +150 or more in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+164 vs SEA)
(901) MILWAUKEE (13-6) at (902) ST LOUIS (9-12)
Trend: MIL was pretty good in the -120 to +135 line range with Colin Rea (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season) (1-0, +1.20 units this season)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (*if they fall into this line range, +140 currently*)
Trend: Sonny Gray is just 1-5 (-5.65 units) at HOME against Milwaukee
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (-166 vs MIL)
(903) MIAMI (5-17) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (13-8)
Trend: Miami is 7-4 (+4.25 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+110 at CHC)
Trend: Miami is 1-6 (-4.65 units) against teams with a >57% win pct with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+110 at CHC)
(907) NEW YORK-NL (12-8) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (12-11)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 20-5 (+14.72 units) in the last 25 day game starts (including 12-1 (+11.83 units) in the last 13)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+215 at LAD)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 29-4 (+18.55 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons (including 17-2 (+10.90 units) in home starts)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-265 vs NYM)
(917) CHICAGO-AL (3-17) at (918) PHILADELPHIA (13-8)
Trend: Philadelphia is 5-1 (+2.55 units) vs. AL Central teams with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS)
(919) BOSTON (12-10) at (920) PITTSBURGH (11-10)
Trend: Martin Perez is 4-8 (-9.60 units) as a day game favorite of -145 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-148 vs BOS)
(921) HOUSTON (7-15) at (922) WASHINGTON (9-11)
Trend: Houston is 18-3 (+14.10 units) during the day with Cristian Javier in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-192 at WSH)
(927) TORONTO (12-9) at (928) SAN DIEGO (11-12)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 23-5 (+15.00 units) in day games vs. teams with a losing record in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+110 at SD)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY
