The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 23, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, TORONTO, CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-258 vs MIA), PLAY MINNESOTA (-278 vs CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-218 at WSH)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in CWS-MIN, PLAY UNDER in NYM-SF

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well since a lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY (-162 vs DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE, NY METS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS RL, NY YANKEES RL, ATLANTA RL, MINNESOTA RL, SAN DIEGO RL, BALTIMORE RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO, NY METS, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, CHICAGO CUBS

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 16-6 for +3.66 units and an ROI of 16.6%. However, the ROI dropped 25% over the past 14 days.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-218 at WSH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 19-11 for -7.78 units.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-258 vs. MIA), PLAY NY YANKEES (-218 vs. OAK), PLAY MINNESOTA (-278 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 14-8 in the three-and-a-half weeks and has lost -3.64 units, a season-low ROI of -16.5%.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-218 vs OAK)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced a 44-52 record for -1.61 units. This angle did win go 14-14 last week for +2.05 units and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at PIT), NY METS (+110 at SF), CLEVELAND (-105 vs. BOS), DETROIT (+136 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+102 vs TOR), CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs. HOU)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 29-25 for +7.01 units. The three-game teams are 14-14 for +2.42 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (+180 vs LAD)
3-games – FADE BOSTON (-115 at CLE)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 22-17 for -1.2 units through Monday, 4/22, after a great 10-4, +5 units week.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-125 at CIN), PLAY CLEVELAND (-105 vs BOS), PLAY BALTIMORE (-162 at LAA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 26 plays on this angle so far in 2024 and these teams are 14-12 for -1.63 units.
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+102 vs TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 321-295 (52.1%) for +39.60 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+105 vs PHI)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1468-1378 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -178.64 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-218 at WSH), SEATTLE (-112 at TEX)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1328-1728 (43.5%) for -168.24 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-115 at CHC), OAKLAND (+180 at NYY), MILWAUKEE (-108 at PIT), MIAMI (+210 at ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+225 at MIN), NY METS (+110 at SF)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2961-2595 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -396.53 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+180 vs. LAD), CLEVELAND (-105 vs. BOS), TEXAS (-108 vs. SEA), ST LOUIS (-135 vs. AZ), SAN FRANCISCO (-130 vs. NYM)

Home teams hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 833-712 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +26.95 units for backers and an ROI of 1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 vs. PHI), NY YANKEES (-218 vs. OAK), COLORADO (+130 vs. SD)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 423-359 (54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +17.86 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 vs PHI), NY YANKEES (-218 vs OAK)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 137-111 run (+52.69 units, ROI: 21.2%).
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+136 vs BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 104-102 (+18.48 units, ROI: 9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+136 vs BAL)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 121-85 (+23.10 units, ROI: 11.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-125 at CIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 152-99 in their last 251 tries (+25.02 units, ROI: 10%).
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-125 at CIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 62-67 (-31.50 units, ROI: -24.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-105 vs BOS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +105 (+22 diff), MIAMI +210 (+26 diff), DETROIT +136 (+40 diff), OAKLAND +180 (+27 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +225 (+63 diff), LA ANGELS +136 (+23 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -105 (+19 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS -135 (+21 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-COL OVER 9.5 (+1.8), BAL-LAA OVER 8.5 (+0.6), CWS-MIN OVER 7 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-TB UNDER 8 (-1.2), SEA-TEX UNDER 9 (-0.9), TOR-KC UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), LAD-WSH UNDER 10 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) PHILADELPHIA (15-8) at (902) CINCINNATI (12-10)
Trend: Philadelphia is trending Under on the road (0-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(903) MILWAUKEE (14-7) at (904) PITTSBURGH (12-11)
Trend: Milwaukee has been good on the road (10-3, +8.42 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-108 at PIT)

(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (13-11) at (906) WASHINGTON (10-11)
Trend: LAD trending Over at night (10-4 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10)

(907) MIAMI (6-18) at (908) ATLANTA (15-6)
Trend: Miami has been horrible vs. LH starters so far (1-10, -9.73 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+210 at ATL)

(911) SAN DIEGO (13-12) at (912) COLORADO (5-18)
Trend: Colorado trending Over at night (10-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(915) BOSTON (13-10) at (916) CLEVELAND (16-6)
Trend: Boston has been good on the road (10-3, +7.54 units)  
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-115 at CLE)

Trend: Cleveland trending Over against AL East/West (12-4 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(917) DETROIT (13-10) at (918) TAMPA BAY (12-12)
Trend: Detroit has been good on the road (9-3, +6.83 units)
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+136 at TB)

(919) OAKLAND (9-14) at (920) NEW YORK-AL (15-8)
Trend: NYY has been good against RH starters (11-3, +7.79 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-218 vs OAK)

(923) CHICAGO-AL (3-19) at (924) MINNESOTA (8-13)
Trend: CWS has been awful against RH starters (2-16, -13.10 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+225 at MIN)

(927) BALTIMORE (15-7) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (9-14)
Trend: Baltimore has been trending Over at night (8-2 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(929) HOUSTON (7-16) at (930) CHICAGO-NL (13-9)
Trend: Houston has been trending Under in interleague play (0-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 10.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) PHILADELPHIA (15-8) at (902) CINCINNATI (12-10)
Trend: Philadelphia is 3-11 (-10.18 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez last 2+ seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-125 at CIN)

(903) MILWAUKEE (14-7) at (904) PITTSBURGH (12-11)
Trend: Bailey Falter is 6-2 (+3.55 units) as a home night starter in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-112 vs MIL)

(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (13-11) at (906) WASHINGTON (10-11)
Trend: James Paxton was 2-6 (-6.65 units) last season vs non-LAD NL teams (1-1, -0.66 units this season)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-218 at WSH)

Trend: James Paxton was 3-13 (-11.92 units) last season as a favorite (2-1, +0.34 units this season)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-218 at WSH)

(907) MIAMI (6-18) at (908) ATLANTA (15-6)
Trend: Miami is 0-8 (-8.10 units) vs. Atlanta with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+210 at ATL)

Trend: Miami is 9-23 (-11.29 units) on the road with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+210 at ATL)

(913) NEW YORK-NL (12-10) at (914) SAN FRANCISCO (11-13)
Trend: Luis Severino is 11-3 (+7.40 units) in April/May in the last 2+ years
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+114 at SF)

Trend: Luis Severino is 17-3 (+13.90 units) against teams with a losing record in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+114 at SF)

Trend: Luis Severino is 4-12 (-6.85 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+114 at SF)

(915) BOSTON (13-10) at (916) CLEVELAND (16-6)
Trend: Boston is 2-12 (-10.55 units) in the -120 to +100 line range with starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-115 at CLE)

(917) DETROIT (13-10) at (918) TAMPA BAY (12-12)
Trend: Kenta Maeda is 10-1 (+9.45 units) in the last 11 night games
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+136 at TB)

(923) CHICAGO-AL (3-19) at (924) MINNESOTA (8-13)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 7-0 (+7.00 units) as a large home favorite of -180 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-278 vs CWS)

(925) SEATTLE (11-11) at (926) TEXAS (12-11)
Trend: Seattle is 28-12 (+21.05 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last three seasons (including 14-4 (+11.26 units) on the road within -105 to +115 line range)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (*only if they become an underdog, -112 currently*)

Trend: Dane Dunning is 6-12 (-5.87 units) as a short underdog within line range of -105 to +110 in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (*if they fall into this line range, -108 currently*)

(927) BALTIMORE (15-7) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (9-14)
Trend: Baltimore is 12-1 (+10.95 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-162 at LAA)

Series #25: Baltimore at LA Angels, Mon 4/22-Wed 4/24
Trend: Baltimore has won 16 of the last 20 games (80%, +13.33 units) against LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 66.7%
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-162 at LAA)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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