Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-290 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+105 at DET), MIAMI (-166 vs WSH), NY YANKEES (-130 at MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-290 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY (-238 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, CHICAGO CUBS, ATLANTA, TEXAS, NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: OAK-BAL, PHI-SD, AZ-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: KC-DET, CHC-BOS, TB-CWS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-218 vs. CLE), FADE TEXAS (-170 vs. CIN), FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-148 vs PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, LA DODGERS, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE RL, TAMPA BAY RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: MIAMI, NY METS, SAN DIEGO, PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA, LA DODGERS, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 26-12 for -3.56 units.
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-238 at CWS), PLAY BALTIMORE (-285 vs OAK)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced a 50-55 record for +2.30 units. This angle did win go 14-14 last week for +2.05 units and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-108 vs PHI), PITTSBURGH (+124 at SF), CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at BOS), CLEVELAND (+180 at ATL), CINCINNATI (+142 at TEX), MILWAUKEE (+110 vs NYY), SEATTLE (+110 vs AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 29-28 for +3.93 units. The three-game teams are 14-16 for +0.42 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 3-games – FADE KANSAS CITY (+105 at DET), FADE ATLANTA (-218 vs. CLE)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 25-21 for -3.51 units through Thursday, 4/24, after a great 10-4, +5 units week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-115 at LAA), LA DODGERS (-122 at TOR), CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at BOS)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 28 plays on this angle so far in 2024 and these teams are 16-12 for +0.42 units.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-166 vs WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1471-1379 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -176.64 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-108 vs PHI)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1332-1739 (43.4%) for -176.09 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, CINCINNATI, WASHINGTON, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2968-2604 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -400.83 units and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, BALTIMORE, LA ANGELS, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, DETROIT
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 838-714 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +30.33 units for backers and a ROI of 2%.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+102 vs LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 44-94 skid (-26.89 units, ROI: -19.5%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 vs TB)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 14-15 (+8.77 units, ROI: 30.2%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 54-118 (-49.40 units, ROI: -28.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 vs TB)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 105-102 (+19.72 units, ROI: 9.5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 vs TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 63-68 (-31.80 units, ROI: -24.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-125 at TOR)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAKLAND +235 (+47 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +195 (+15 diff), CLEVELAND +180 (+46 diff), CINCINNATI +142 (+15 diff), MILWAUKEE +110 (+15 diff), SEATTLE +110 (+22 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -112 (+17 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-BOS OVER 7.5 (+1.7), CLE-ATL OVER 8.5 (+0.8), PHI-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.5), KC-DET OVER 7.5 (+0.5), AZ-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) WASHINGTON (10-14) at (952) MIAMI (6-20)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 10-3 (+4.55 units) at home as a -150 or higher favorite
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-155 vs WSH)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (16-10) at (956) SAN DIEGO (14-14)
Trend: PHI is 0-4 (-4.95 units) vs. San Diego with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-112 at SD)
Trend: PHI is 9-20 (-9.80 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (*if they become an underdog, -112 favorite currently*)
(959) KANSAS CITY (16-10) at (960) DETROIT (14-11)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 1-9 (-11.45 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (+105 at DET)
Trend: Detroit is 5-1 (+5.17 units) vs KC/MIN with starter Reese Olson
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-125 vs KC)
(961) OAKLAND (10-16) at (962) BALTIMORE (16-8)
Trend: Ross Stripling is 3-10 (-6.30 units) as a night underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+235 at BAL)
(963) TAMPA BAY (13-13) at (964) CHICAGO-AL (3-22)
Trend: TB is 13-3 (+7.65 units) in night games with Zach Eflin last season (1-2, -2.14 units this season)
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING TAMPA BAY (-238 at CWS)
(965) MINNESOTA (11-13) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (10-15)
Trend: Minnesota is 3-9 (-7.22 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-115 at LAA)
(969) CHICAGO-NL (16-9) at (970) BOSTON (14-12)
Trend: Boston is 0-5 (-6.80 units) at home against NL teams by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-112 vs CHC)
(975) NEW YORK-AL (17-9) at (976) MILWAUKEE (16-8)
Trend: Milwaukee is good in the -120 to +135 line range (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season) (1-0, +1.20 units this season) with starter Colin Rea
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+110 vs NYY)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. COLORADO: 18-9 (66.6%) 10.75 units, ROI: 39.8%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 4/26 vs. Philadelphia
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-108 vs PHI)
