The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 12, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Home teams are 6-18 (25%, -18.35 units) in the last 24 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays. The ROI on this trend is -76.5%.
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS (-115 vs. TOR)

Trend: Over the total is 8-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: FAVORITES are 18-2 (90%, +13.60 units) in the last 20 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 68%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-112 at MIL)

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 28-85 skid (-39.71 units, ROI -35.1%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+136 at SD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 227-240 record for +8.17 units (ROI 1.7%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+110 vs. STL), MILWAUKEE (-110 vs. LAD), ATLANTA (-108 at SF), TAMPA BAY (+110 vs. HOU), TEXAS (+114 at BOS), CLEVELAND (+105 vs. CHC)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-238 vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-130 at CIN), CLEVELAND (+102 vs. CHC), MINNESOTA (-162 vs. KC), TORONTO (-105 at LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): NONE YET TODAY (watch for ARIZONA vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-325 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. CHC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE YET TODAY

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 88-49 for -21.06 units and an ROI of -15.4%.
System Matches (FADE): ARIZONA (-238 vs. COL)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/11, the record of this angle is again positive at 79-30 for +2.27 units.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-325 at CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 50-31 since opening day 2024 and has lost -16.20 units, an ROI of -20%. While still solid results, this angle has cooled of late.
System Matches (FADE): ARIZONA (-238 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 253-302 record, for -12.57 units (ROI -2.3%). This is performing below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+110 vs. STL), MILWAUKEE (-110 vs. LAD), ATLANTA (-108 at SF), TAMPA BAY (+110 vs. HOU), TEXAS (+114 at BOS), CLEVELAND (+105 vs. CHC)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 227-240 record, for +8.17 units (ROI 1.7%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+110 vs. STL), MILWAUKEE (-110 vs. LAD), ATLANTA (-108 at SF), TAMPA BAY (+110 vs. HOU), TEXAS (+114 at BOS), CLEVELAND (+105 vs. CHC)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 141-167 for -20.09 units. The three-game teams are 69-73 for -0.43 units.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE LA DODGERS (-110 at MIL), FADE HOUSTON (-130 at TB), FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-125 at CLE)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 151-139 for -22.44 units (-7.7% ROI) through Sunday, 8/11. We have seen far more lengthy losing streaks this season as compared to winning streaks, and I believe that is greatly affecting this system.
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-238 vs. COL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1627-1514 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -181.10 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-130 at TB), COLORADO (+190 at AZ), ARIZONA (-230 vs. COL)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3283-2881 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -438.16 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO, CLEVELAND, ARIZONA

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 467-401 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +11.03 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-135 vs. TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+260 vs. NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 28-85 skid (-39.71 units, ROI -35.1%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+136 at SD)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage. They are just 64-143 (-62.89 units, ROI: -30.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+136 at SD)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 141-153 (+7.64 units, ROI: 2.6%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+136 at SD), PLAY BOSTON (-135 vs. TEX)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +195 (+20 diff), TAMPA BAY +110 (+23 diff), TEXAS +114 (+17 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +260 (+29 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-MIL OVER 8 (+0.8), TEX-BOS OVER 9.5 (+0.6), ATL-SF OVER 6.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) ST LOUIS (60-58) at (952) CINCINNATI (57-61)
Trend: Under the total is 5-2 in the head-to-head series this season (including 3-0 at CIN)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (69-49) at (954) MILWAUKEE (67-50)
Trend: MIL not as good vs. LH starters (15-18, -6.55 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-110 vs. LAD)

(955) COLORADO (44-75) at (956) ARIZONA (66-53)
Trend: COL bad on the road (17-43, -13.71 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+190 at AZ)

(957) PITTSBURGH (56-61) at (958) SAN DIEGO (66-53)
Trend: SD trending Over at home (35-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(959) ATLANTA (61-56) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (61-59)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (16-22, -10.54 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-112 vs. ATL)

(961) HOUSTON (62-55) at (962) TAMPA BAY (59-58)
Trend: TB decent vs. LH starters (18-11, +5.03 units)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+110 vs. HOU)

(965) KANSAS CITY (65-53) at (966) MINNESOTA (65-52)
Trend: MIN leads head-to-head series (5-2 record, 3-1 at home) this season
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-162 vs. KC)

(967) NEW YORK-AL (70-49) at (968) CHICAGO-AL (28-91)
Trend: CWS awful vs. RH starters (21-75, -45.72 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+260 vs. NYY)

(969) TORONTO (54-64) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-66)
Trend: LAA just 7-10 as a home favorite this season
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-115 vs. TOR)

(971) CHICAGO-NL (59-60) at (972) CLEVELAND (69-49)
Trend: Over the total is 8-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(955) COLORADO (44-75) at (956) ARIZONA (66-53)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 6-15 (-4.26 units) as an underdog of +150 or more in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+190 at AZ)

(957) PITTSBURGH (56-61) at (958) SAN DIEGO (66-53)
Trend: Marco Gonzales is 13-7 (+8.50 units) in the last 20 road night starts
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+136 at SD)

Trend: Joe Musgrove is 14-3 (+7.30 units) as a night home favorite of -165 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (*if they fall into this line range, -162 currently)

(961) HOUSTON (62-55) at (962) TAMPA BAY (59-58)
Trend: TB is 8-14 (-5.76 units) as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) with Taj Bradley in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+110 vs. HOU)

Series #2: Toronto at LA Angels, Mon 8/12-Wed 8/14
Trend: Home teams are 6-18 (25%, -18.35 units) in the last 24 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.
– The ROI on this trend is -76.5%.
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS (-115 vs. TOR)

Series #13: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee, Mon 8/12-Thu 8/15
Trend: Favorites are 18-2 (90%, +13.60 units) in the last 20 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 68%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-112 at MIL)

Series #29: Texas at Boston, Mon 8/12-Wed 8/14
Trend: Home teams are 15-8 (65.2%, +4.38 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 19%
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-135 vs. TEX)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, 8/19)

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