The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 21, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: PHI is 3-11 (-7.90 units) in road divisional games as a -110 or worse line with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-108 at ATL)

Trend: CHC is 13-5 (+6.38 units) against AL Central by starter Jameson Taillon
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-166 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-175 vs. LAA)

Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-34, -24.06 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+140 vs AZ)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 160-183 for -12.99 units. The three-game teams are 80-83 for +1.94 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE COLORADO (+130 at WSH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-175 vs LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO (-108 vs. CIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, TEXAS, SAN FRANCISCO, MINNESOTA, CINCINNATI, DETROIT, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-130 vs. BAL), TEXAS (-155 vs. PIT)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent|
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/20, the record of this angle is back into positive territory at 87-34 for +0.27 units.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-230 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 55-34 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -17.93 units, an ROI of -20.1%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-230 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 278-327 record for -8.54 units (ROI -1.4%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), CLEVELAND (+160 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+145 at KC), PITTSBURGH (+130 at TEX)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 249-261 record for +11.04 units (ROI 2.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), PITTSBURGH (+130 at TEX)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 160-183 for -12.99 units. The three-game teams are 80-83 for +1.94 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE COLORADO (+130 at WSH)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1638-1529 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -187.11 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+160 at NYY), TORONTO (-108 vs. CIN), BALTIMORE (+110 at NYM), LA ANGELS (+150 at KC)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1541-1983 (43.7%) for -187.81 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3310-2898 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -433.42 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TORONTO, NY METS, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 472-404 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +14.95 units, for an ROI of 1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-162 vs. PIT), OAKLAND (+110 vs. TB)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 302-152 (66.5%) for +37.92 units and an ROI of 8.4%!
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (*if they become favorites vs CIN, -108 currently)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 173-166 run (+34.78 units, ROI: 10.3%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+190 at SF)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND +160 (+36 diff), BALTIMORE +110 (+21 diff), DETROIT +136 (+21 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -148 (+25 diff), SAN FRANCISCO -230 (+18 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-NYY OVER 8 (+1.2), COL-WSH OVER 8 (+1.0), PHI-ATL OVER 7.5 (+1.0), MIL-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.8)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-SF UNDER 7 (-0.5), MIN-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) ARIZONA (71-56) at (902) MIAMI (46-80)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-34, -24.06 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+140 vs AZ)

(903) COLORADO (47-79) at (904) WASHINGTON (56-70)
Trend: COL not good bet vs LH starters (13-26, -7.50 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+130 at WSH)

(905) PHILADELPHIA (73-52) at (906) ATLANTA (67-58)
Trend: Over the total is 13-5 when PHI has been a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(907) MILWAUKEE (73-52) at (908) ST LOUIS (61-64)
Trend: MIL is 12-2 in the last 14 of the series vs STL
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-105 at STL)

(911) CLEVELAND (73-52) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (73-53)
Trend: CLE trending Over vs. AL East/West (30-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(913) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-72) at (914) KANSAS CITY (70-56)
Trend: KC better at HOME (39-26, +8.37 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-180 vs LAA)

(917) BALTIMORE (74-53) at (918) NEW YORK-NL (65-61)
Trend: BAL trending Over on the road (37-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(919) PITTSBURGH (59-66) at (920) TEXAS (58-69)
Trend: TEX heavy Under at home (21-41 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(921) CHICAGO-AL (30-97) at (922) SAN FRANCISCO (65-63)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (18-23, -9.62 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-230 vs. CWS)

(927) DETROIT (61-65) at (928) CHICAGO-NL (62-64)
Trend: CHC good vs. AL teams (24-14, +10.63 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-166 vs DET)

(929) SEATTLE (64-63) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (75-52)
Trend: SEA not as good on the road (27-37, -16.37 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+154 at LAD)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(905) PHILADELPHIA (73-52) at (906) ATLANTA (67-58)
Trend: PHI is 3-11 (-7.90 units) in road divisional games as a -110 or worse line with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-108 at ATL)

Trend: PHI is 10-23 (-11.68 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-108 at ATL)

Trend: ATL is 39-25 in the last six seasons with Max Fried starting against teams with a winning record
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-112 vs. PHI)

(907) MILWAUKEE (73-52) at (908) ST LOUIS (61-64)
Trend: Kyle Gibson is 3-8 (-6.25 units) vs. MIL/CHC in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (-115 vs .MIL)

(911) CLEVELAND (73-52) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (73-53)
Trend: NYY is 14-3 (+6.94 units) at home as large favorite of -185 or more with starter Nestor Cortes in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 vs. CLE)

(919) PITTSBURGH (59-66) at (920) TEXAS (58-69)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 14-7 (+1.18 units) as a home favorite within line range of -155 to -210 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-162 vs PIT)

(927) DETROIT (61-65) at (928) CHICAGO-NL (62-64)
Trend: CHC is 13-5 (+6.38 units) against AL Central by starter Jameson Taillon
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-166 vs. DET)

Trend: CHC is 14-3 (+9.38 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (*if they fall into this line range, -166 currently)

(929) SEATTLE (64-63) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (75-52)
Trend: SEA is 29-16 (+18.18 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+154 at LAD)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday 8/23)

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