The following MLB trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Over the total is 26-11 when San Francisco is a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in SF-SEA (o/u at 7)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 302-152 (66.5%) for +37.92 units and an ROI of 8.4%!
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-125 vs. TEX)

Trend: Kevin Gausman is 10-19 (-20.34 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-170 vs. LAA)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 80-91 (-46.69 units, ROI: -27.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (+114 at BOS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DET-CWS (o/u at 9)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-225 vs TB)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority BETS groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not TOO MANY of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 UNITS and a ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-110 at PIT), ARIZONA (+114 at BOS), KANSAS CITY (-148 vs. PHI)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-270 vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-135 vs. AZ), SEATTLE (-135 vs. SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DET-CWS

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 101-52 for -14.27 units and a ROI of -9.3%.
System Matches (FADE): ATLANTA (-192 vs. WSH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/24, the record of this angle is in slight negative territory at 89-36 for -3.71 units (huge loss of -360 by NYY on 8/24).
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-270 vs. COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 57-36 since opening day 2024 and has lost -21.91 units, an ROI of -23.6%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-270 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 284-344 record for -18.11 units (ROI -2.9%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-110 at PIT), LA ANGELS (+142 at TOR), ARIZONA (+114 at BOS), ST LOUIS (+120 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (+124 at KC), TAMPA BAY (+185 at LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at SEA)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 254-272 record for +5.62 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-110 at PIT), LA ANGELS (+142 at TOR), ARIZONA (+114 at BOS), ST LOUIS (+120 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (+124 at KC), SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 161-190 for -19.39 units. The three-game teams are 81-84 for +0.69 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE BALTIMORE (-105 vs. HOU)
3-games – FADE TORONTO (-170 vs. LAA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 161 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/24 and these teams are 91-70 for +12.66 units.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+142 at TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 354-335 (51.4%) for +28.26 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, KANSAS CITY

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1643-1535 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -188.41 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, DETROIT, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1551-1991 (43.8%) for -182.17 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, HOUSTON, ST LOUIS, WASHINGTON

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3323-2909 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -433.44 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 302-152 (66.5%) for +37.92 units and an ROI of 8.4%!
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-125 vs TEX)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 274-231 (54.3%) for +36.98 units and an ROI of 7.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-148 vs. PHI), MIAMI (+142 vs. CHC)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 174-166 run (+36.73 units, ROI: 10.8%).
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+142 at TOR)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 144-158 (+5.64 units, ROI: 1.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+142 vs. CHC), PLAY LA ANGELS (+142 at TOR)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 80-91 (-46.69 units, ROI: -27.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (+114 at BOS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +215 (+35 diff), ST LOUIS +120 (+27 diff), OAKLAND +124 (+22 diff), TAMPA BAY +185 (+25 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -148 (+50 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -175 (+23 diff), CLEVELAND -125 (+15 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-PIT UNDER 9 (-1.1), LAA-TOR UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), CHC-MIA UNDER 9 (-0.7), WSH-ATL UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), TB-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.6), DET-CWS UNDER 9 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) WASHINGTON (58-72) at (902) ATLANTA (70-59)
Trend: ATL more Under at home (20-41 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(903) CINCINNATI (63-67) at (904) PITTSBURGH (61-68)
Trend: CIN not good during the day (19-30, -14.22 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-110 at PIT)

(905) CHICAGO-NL (65-65) at (906) MIAMI (46-83)
Trend: MIA heavy Over at home (47-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(907) NEW YORK-NL (68-62) at (908) SAN DIEGO (73-58)
Trend: SD good vs. NL East/Central (36-23, +8.96 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-122 vs. NYM)

(911) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-76) at (912) TORONTO (62-68)
Trend: TOR slight Over at home (38-27 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(913) TEXAS (60-70) at (914) CLEVELAND (74-55)
Trend: CLE trending Over vs. AL East/West (33-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(915) DETROIT (64-66) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (31-99)
Trend: DET leads season series (7-1 record)
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-142 at CWS)

(917) ARIZONA (74-56) at (918) BOSTON (67-61)
Trend: AZ slight Over vs. AL teams (24-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(921) ST LOUIS (64-65) at (922) MINNESOTA (72-57)
Trend: MIN better during the day (35-22, +7.50 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-142 vs. STL)

(923) PHILADELPHIA (75-54) at (924) KANSAS CITY (72-57)
Trend: Over the total is 14-7 when PHI is a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10)

(925) MILWAUKEE (75-54) at (926) OAKLAND (55-75)
Trend: MIL has been dominant in interleague play (31-14, +18.07 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-135 at OAK)

(927) TAMPA BAY (65-64) at (928) LOS ANGELES-NL (77-53)
Trend: TB solid vs. NL teams (25-14, +9.00 units)
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING TAMPA BAY (+190 at LAD)

(929) SAN FRANCISCO (66-65) at (930) SEATTLE (65-65)
Trend: Over the total is 26-11 when SF is a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(909) HOUSTON (69-60) at (910) BALTIMORE (76-55)
Trend: BAL is 27-10 (+14.89 units) in the last three seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-105 vs. HOU)

(911) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-76) at (912) TORONTO (62-68)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 10-19 (-20.34 units) at HOME within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-170 vs. LAA)

(919) COLORADO (48-82) at (920) NEW YORK-AL (76-54)
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 3-17 (-11.20 units) as large underdog of +175 or more
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+235 at NYY)

(929) SAN FRANCISCO (66-65) at (930) SEATTLE (65-65)
Trend: SEA is 4-0 (+4.00 units) in day game starts by Bryan Woo this season
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-135 vs. SF)

Series #2: LA Angels at Toronto, Thu 8/22-Sun 8/25
Trend: Home teams are 9-21 (30%, -18.65 units) in the last 30 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.
– The ROI on this trend is -62.2%.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-170 vs LAA)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Thu 8/22-Sun 8/25
Trend: Cincinnati is 4-12 (25%, -8.25 units) in last 16 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -51.6%
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-110 at PIT)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/26)

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