The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, August 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: NY Mets are 21-6 (77.8%, +14.32 units) in the last 27 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
–  The ROI on this trend is 53%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-108 at AZ)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 275-232 (54.2%) for +37.06 units and an ROI of 7.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+100 vs CHC)

Trend: CLE is 2-9 (-6.97 units) against teams with a win pct of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-155 vs. KC)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 131-99 (+18.22 units, ROI: 7.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+120 at BOS)

CWS letdown after series vs. DETROIT: 9-20 (31%) -11.25 units, ROI: -38.8%   
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+120 vs. TEX)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024, these two-game teams have gone 162-191 for -19.49 units. The three-game teams are 82-84 for +1.69 units.

System Matches: 2-games – FADE KANSAS CITY (+130 at CLE), FADE SEATTLE (-155 vs. TB)
3+ games – FADE ARIZONA (-112 vs NYM), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs HOU)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units – ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). – 45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NONE YET TODAY (watch for BOSTON vs. TOR)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain for 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-115 vs. SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-218 at WSH)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAA-DET (o/u at 9.5)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in ’24, these teams are again losing money, 102-53 for -15.19 units and an ROI of -9.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-218 at WSH), LA DODGERS (-205 vs. BAL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 292-351 record for -16.24 units (ROI -2.5%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it, especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+124 at COL), NY METS (-108 at AZ), TORONTO (+120 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (+130 at SEA), HOUSTON (+124 at PHI), OAKLAND (+124 at CIN), ATLANTA (-110 at MIN)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 262-277 record for +9.49 units (ROI 1.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+124 at COL), NY METS (-108 at AZ), TORONTO (+120 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (+130 at SEA), HOUSTON (+124 at PHI), OAKLAND (+124 at CIN), ATLANTA (-110 at MIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 162-191 for -19.49 units. The three-game teams are 82-84 for +1.69 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE KANSAS CITY (+130 at CLE), FADE SEATTLE (-155 vs. TB)
3+ games – FADE ARIZONA (-112 vs. NYM), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. HOU)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 357-337 (51.4%) for +29.34 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+100 vs. CHC)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1649-1540 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -188.61 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at PIT), ATLANTA (-110 at MIN), KANSAS CITY (+130 at CLE)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1556-1993 (43.8%) for -178.33 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+124 at PHI), MIAMI (+124 at COL), LA ANGELS (+130 at DET), NY METS (-108 at AZ), TEXAS (-142 at CWS)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3327-2912 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -433.30 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+100 vs. CHC), MINNESOTA (-110 vs. ATL), ARIZONA (-112 vs. NYM)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 275-232 (54.2%) for +37.06 units and an ROI of 7.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+100 vs. CHC)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 174-167 run (+35.73 units, ROI: 10.5%).
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+130 at DET)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 145-159 (+6.14 units, ROI: 2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+130 at DET), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+120 vs. TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 59-51 (+11.98 units, ROI: 10.9%) in their last 110 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+120 at BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 131-99 (+18.22 units, ROI: 7.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+120 at BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 179-119 in their last 298 tries (+21.66 units, ROI: 7.3%).
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-112 vs. NYM)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 81-91 (-45.59 units, ROI: -26.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): ARIZONA (-112 vs. NYM)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KANSAS CITY +130 (+20 diff), TAMPA BAY +130 (+16 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -142 (+40 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-STL OVER 8 (+0.9)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-DET UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(903) SAN DIEGO (75-58) at (904) ST LOUIS (65-66)
Trend: SD solid bet on the road (37-26, +9.74 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-142 at STL)

(905) SAN FRANCISCO (66-66) at (906) MILWAUKEE (75-55)
Trend: MIL better vs. RH starters (59-36, +19.07 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-112 vs. SF)

(907) MIAMI (47-84) at (908) COLORADO (49-83)
Trend: COL not good vs. NL East/Central (16-33, -10.04 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (-148 vs. MIA)

(909) NEW YORK-NL (68-63) at (910) ARIZONA (75-56)
Trend: AZ trending Over at home (38-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(913) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-77) at (914) DETROIT (66-66)
Trend: LAA not good vs. AL Central/East (16-36, -15.51 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+130 at DET)

(915) TORONTO (65-68) at (916) BOSTON (67-64)
Trend: TOR heavy Over in divisional play (29-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(917) TEXAS (60-71) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (31-101)
Trend: CWS slight Under vs. LH starters (8-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(919) TAMPA BAY (65-66) at (920) SEATTLE (67-65)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (22-41 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 6.5)

(923) OAKLAND (56-75) at (924) CINCINNATI (63-68)
Trend: OAK more Under at night (28-43 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(925) NEW YORK-AL (78-54) at (926) WASHINGTON (59-73)
Trend: NYY worse vs. LH starters (17-20, -17.59 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-218 at WSH)

(927) ATLANTA (71-60) at (928) MINNESOTA (72-59)
Trend: ATL heavy Under vs. AL teams (10-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(929) BALTIMORE (76-56) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (78-53)
Trend: LAD better vs. LH starters (29-13, +4.04 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-198 vs. BAL)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(911) KANSAS CITY (74-58) at (912) CLEVELAND (75-57)
Trend: CLE is 2-9 (-6.97 units) against teams with a win pct of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-155 vs. KC)

(917) TEXAS (60-71) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (31-101)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 22-8 (+10.74 units) on the road for line range of -102 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-142 at CWS)

(921) HOUSTON (70-61) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (77-54)
Trend: PHI is 24-4 (+17.45 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (*if they fall into this line range, -142 currently*)

Series #4: NY Mets at Arizona, Tue 8/27-Thu 8/29
Trend: NY Mets are 21-6 (77.8%, +14.32 units) in the last 27 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
–  The R.O.I. on this trend is 53%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-108 at AZ)

Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Mon 8/26-Thu 8/29
Trend: Home teams are 14-5 (73.7%, +7.79 units) in the last 19 games between San Diego and St. Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 41%
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (+120 vs. SD)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Letdown after series vs. DETROIT: 9-20 (31%) -11.25 units, ROI: -38.8%   
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/27 vs. Texas
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+120 vs. TEX)

CINCINNATI
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 16-10 (61.5%) 7.13 units, ROI: 27.4% 
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/27 vs. Oakland
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-148 vs. OAK)

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