Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 304-152 (66.7%) for +39.92 units and an ROI of 8.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-162 vs. KC)
Trend: BOS is 6-17 (-12.60 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-148 vs. TOR)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 51-118 skid (-41.99 units, ROI: -24.8%).
System Matches (FADE): LA ANGELS (+140 at DET)
Trend: NY Mets are 22-7 (75.9%, +14.32 units) in the last 29 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 49.4%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+102 at AZ)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain throughout 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 UNITS and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): TEXAS (-258 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-135 vs. OAK), LA DODGERS (-148 vs. BAL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-162 vs. KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), the majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIA-COL (o/u at 11.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/28, the record of this angle is in slightly negative territory at 91-36 for -1.71 units (a huge loss of -360 by NYY on 8/24).
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-258 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 298-356 record for -13.93 units (ROI -2.1%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it, especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+110 at COL), NY METS (+102 at AZ), ATLANTA (+136 at PHI), TORONTO (+124 at BOS), OAKLAND (+114 at CIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 268-282 record for +10.35 units (ROI 1.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+110 at COL), NY METS (+102 at AZ), ATLANTA (+136 at PHI), TORONTO (+124 at BOS), OAKLAND (+114 at CIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024, these two-game teams have gone 163-192 for -19.84 units. The three-game teams are 83-87 for -0.41 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE BOSTON (-148 vs. TOR)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1652-1541 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -186.21 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-162 vs. KC), OAKLAND (+114 at CIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1560-1997 (43.9%) for -179.34 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+124 at BOS), LA ANGELS (+140 at DET), MIAMI (+110 at COL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3331-2918 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -436.06 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-162 vs. KC), CINCINNATI (-135 vs. OAK), MILWAUKEE (-135 vs. SF), COLORADO (-130 vs. MIA), ARIZONA (-122 vs. NYM), LA DODGERS (-148 vs. BAL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 478-406 (54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +18.47 units, for an ROI of 2.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs. ATL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 304-152 (66.7%) for +39.92 units and an ROI of 8.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-162 vs. KC)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 275-233 (54.1%) for +36.06 units and an ROI of 7.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 28-88 skid (-42.71 units, ROI -36.8%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches (FADE): LA ANGELS (+140 at DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 51-118 skid (-41.99 units, ROI: -24.8%).
System Matches (FADE): LA ANGELS (+140 at DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 65-146 (-64.89 units, ROI: -30.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA ANGELS (+140 at DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 174-169 run (+33.73 units, ROI: 9.8%).
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+140 at DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 145-163 (+2.14 units, ROI: 0.7%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+140 at DET), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 vs. TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 132-100 (+18.22 units, ROI: 7.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-166 vs. LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 180-120 in their last 300 tries (+21.56 units, ROI: 7.2%).
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-166 vs. LAA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +102 (+33 diff), OAKLAND +114 (+17 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -148 (+35 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-BOS OVER 8.5 (+1.1), KC-HOU OVER 8 (+0.5), SD-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.5), ATL-PHI OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-CIN UNDER 10.5 (-1.2), MIA-COL UNDER 11.5 (-0.8), LAA-DET UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (67-67) at (902) MILWAUKEE (76-56)
Trend: MIL good during the day (34-22, +11.56 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-135 vs. SF)
(903) SAN DIEGO (76-59) at (904) ST LOUIS (66-67)
Trend: SD solid bet on the ROAD (38-27, +9.49 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-115 at STL)
(905) MIAMI (48-85) at (906) COLORADO (50-84)
Trend: COL not good during the day (15-34, -10.25 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (-130 vs MIA)
(907) NEW YORK-NL (69-64) at (908) ARIZONA (76-57)
Trend: AZ trending Over at home (40-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(909) ATLANTA (73-60) at (910) PHILADELPHIA (78-55)
Trend: ATL slightly better vs. LH starters (25-14, +2.48 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+136 at PHI)
(911) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-79) at (912) DETROIT (68-66)
Trend: LAA not good vs. AL Central/East (16-38, -17.51 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+140 at DET)
(913) TEXAS (62-71) at (914) CHICAGO-AL (31-103)
Trend: CWS awful overall (31-103, -57.93 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 vs. TEX)
(915) TORONTO (65-70) at (916) BOSTON (69-64)
Trend: TOR more Over in divisional play (29-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(917) KANSAS CITY (75-59) at (918) HOUSTON (71-62)
Trend: HOU trending Under against AL teams (39-55 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(921) BALTIMORE (77-57) at (922) LOS ANGELES-NL (79-54)
Trend: BAL not as good in interleague play (17-22, -13.26 units)
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (+124 at LAD)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(913) TEXAS (62-71) at (914) CHICAGO-AL (31-103)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 22-7 (+14.88 units) in the last 29 day game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-258 at CWS)
(915) TORONTO (65-70) at (916) BOSTON (69-64)
Trend: BOS is 6-17 (-12.60 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-148 vs. TOR)
(921) BALTIMORE (77-57) at (922) LOS ANGELES-NL (79-54)
Trend: LAD is 6-1 (+4.82 units) as a favorite in the line range -112 to -155 with starter Bobby Miller in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-148 vs. BAL)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #4: NY Mets at Arizona, Tue 8/27-Thu 8/29
Trend: NY Mets are 22-7 (75.9%, +14.32 units) in the last 29 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 49.4%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+102 at AZ)
Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Mon 8/26-Thu 8/29
Trend: Home teams are 15-6 (71.4%, +7.84 units) in the last 21 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 37.3%
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (-105 vs SD)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/30)
