The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Marcus Stroman is 0-9 (-11.25 units) vs. St Louis in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-192 vs. STL)

Trend: AZ is 12-2 (+11.02 units) in the last 14 Home Divisional starts by Zac Gallen
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+114 vs. LAD)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 163 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/28 and these teams are 92-71 for +12.66 units.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-170 vs. TOR)

CHC MOMENTUM after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 20-9 (69%) 10.76 units, ROI: 37.1%
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-162 at WSH)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 52-118 skid (-40.49 units, ROI: -23.8%).
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 vs. NYM)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-192 vs. STL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-135 at AZ) 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-278 vs. MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (-225 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, NY METS, BALTIMORE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority hANDLE bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for UNDER the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-CIN GAME 1, MIL-CIN GAME 2

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 102-56 for -22.07 units and an ROI of -14%.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-278 vs. MIA)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
 A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/29, the record of this angle is in slightly negative territory at 92-36 for -0.71 units (huge loss of -360 by NYY on 8/24).
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (-225 at CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 58-36 since opening day 2024 and has lost -20.91 units, an ROI of -22.2%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (-225 at CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
 A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 301-359 record for -13.63 units (ROI -2.1%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+120 at PHI), DETROIT (+100 vs. BOS), OAKLAND (+124 at TEX), LA ANGELS (+160 vs. SEA), ST LOUIS (+160 at NYY), MILWAUKEE GAME 2 (-105 at CIN)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 271-285 record for +10.65 units (ROI 1.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+120 at PHI), DETROIT (+100 vs. BOS), OAKLAND (+124 at TEX), MILWAUKEE GAME 2 (-105 at CIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 163-193 for -21.14 units. The three-game teams are 83-87 for -0.41 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (+136 vs. CHC)
3+ games – FADE TEXAS (-148 vs. OAK)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 163 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/28 and these teams are 92-71 for +12.66 units.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-170 vs. TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1653-1542 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -186.21 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, OAKLAND, MIAMI, CHICAGO CUBS, PITTSBURGH

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1563-1997 (43.9%) for -175.54 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, TORONTO, BOSTON 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3335-2920 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -434.73 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, COLORADO, CINCINNATI GAME 1, PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 479-406 (54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.47 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-285 vs. MIA)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 276-233 (54.2%) for +37.06 units and an ROI of 7.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): COLORADO (+120 vs. BAL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 52-118 skid (-40.49 units, ROI: -23.8%).
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 vs. NYM)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 66-146 (-63.39 units, ROI: -29.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 vs. NYM)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 175-169 run (+35.23 units, ROI: 10.2%).
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 vs. NYM)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 146-164 (+2.64 units, ROI: 0.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-155 vs. TOR)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +225 (+20 diff), KANSAS CITY +154 (+30 diff), TORONTO +142 (+30 diff), ST LOUIS +160 (+30 diff), MILWAUKEE GAME 2 -105 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -155 (+21 diff), BALTIMORE -135 (+40 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.6), SD-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-CLE UNDER 9 (-1.0), BOS-DET UNDER 9 (-0.7)

Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) MILWAUKEE (77-56) at (952) CINCINNATI (64-70) (DH Game #1)
Trend: CIN not as good during the DAY (19-31, -15.34 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI GAME 1 (+105 vs. MIL)

(953) ATLANTA (73-61) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (79-55)
Trend: PHI better at night (56-33, +8.17 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs. ATL)

(957) CHICAGO-NL (68-66) at (958) WASHINGTON (61-73)
Trend: WSH slight Over vs. NL Central/West (32-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (80-54) at (960) ARIZONA (76-58)
Trend: AZ not as good vs. LH starters (22-25, -8.70 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (+114 vs. LAD)

(961) MIAMI (49-85) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (67-68)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-37, -27.06 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+225 at SF)

(963) BOSTON (69-65) at (964) DETROIT (68-67)
Trend: BOS slight Over on the road (37-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(965) OAKLAND (58-76) at (966) TEXAS (63-71)
Trend: TEX more Under at home (21-42 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(967) KANSAS CITY (75-60) at (968) HOUSTON (72-62)
Trend: AZ is 12-2 (+11.02 units) in the last 14 Home Divisional starts by Zac Gallen
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+114 vs. LAD)

(971) SEATTLE (68-66) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-79)
Trend: SEA more Ubder vs. divisional opponents (10-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(973) SAN DIEGO (76-60) at (974) TAMPA BAY (66-67)
Trend: TB better vs. NL teams (25-15, +8.00 units)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-125 vs SD)

(977) PITTSBURGH (62-71) at (978) CLEVELAND (76-58)
Trend: CLE good vs. LH starters (27-11, +14.83 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-155 vs. PIT)

(981) BALTIMORE (77-58) at (982) COLORADO (50-85)
Trend: BAL trending Over on the Road (39-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 11) 

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (80-54) at (960) ARIZONA (76-58)
Trend: AZ is 12-2 (+11.02 units) in the last 14 Home Divisional starts by Zac Gallen
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+114 vs. LAD)

(963) BOSTON (69-65) at (964) DETROIT (68-67)
Trend: BOS is 3-14 (-11.65 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-120 at DET)

(967) KANSAS CITY (75-60) at (968) HOUSTON (72-62)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 4-12 (-10.26 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (+145 at HOU)

(969) TORONTO (66-70) at (970) MINNESOTA (72-61)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 4-8 (-3.36 units) as a road night underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+130 at MIN)

(971) SEATTLE (68-66) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-79)
Trend: SEA is 15-7 (+3.45 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-192 at LAA)

(973) SAN DIEGO (76-60) at (974) TAMPA BAY (66-67)
Trend: Martin Perez is 12-5 (+7.32 units) as an underdog within +100 to +110 line range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (+105 at TB)

Trend: TB is 4-6 (-3.10 units) vs. NL teams with Taj Bradley in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-125 vs SD)

(975) ST LOUIS (67-67) at (976) NEW YORK-AL (78-56)
Trend: Marcus Stroman is 0-9 (-11.25 units) vs. St Louis in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-192 vs. STL)

Series #10: Boston at Detroit, Fri 8/30-Sun 9/1
Trend: Detroit is 3-12 (20%, -7.97 units) in the last 15 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -53.1%
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+100 vs. BOS) 

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

CHICAGO CUBS
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 20-9 (69%) 10.76 units, ROI: 37.1%   
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/30 at Washington
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-162 at WSH)PITTSBURGH
Letdown after series vs. CHICAGO CUBS: 12-17 (41.4%) -1.94 units, ROI: -6.7%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/30 at Cleveland
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+136 at CLE)

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