The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Home teams are 15-7 (68.2%, +5.58 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 25.4%
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (-125 vs. BOS)

Trend: CLE was 1-6 (-4.90 units) against teams with a win percentage of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams last year
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+110 vs. BAL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SF-CIN, NYM-LAA

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1510-1953 (43.6%) for -195.36 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (+130 at PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+230 at MIN), COLORADO (+170 at SD)

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 30-65 in their last 95 tries (-20.76 units, ROI: -21.9%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+230 at MIN)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-278 vs. MIA), SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): CINCINNATI (+100 vs. SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-278 vs. MIA), MINNESOTA (-285 vs. CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-142 at LAA), LA DODGERS (-155 at OAK), PHILADELPHIA (-122 at SEA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-155 vs. AZ), CHICAGO CUBS (-148 vs. STL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SF-CIN, NYM-LAA

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, TEXAS, LA ANGELS, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 79-45 for -21.67 units and an ROI of -17.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-258 vs. MIA), SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. COL), NY YANKEES (-238 vs. TOR)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. The 2024 record of this angle so far is positive at 80-29 for +5.32 units (ROI of 4.9%).
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-285 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 46-29 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -16.36 units, a season-low ROI of -21.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-285 vs. CWS), SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 236-283 record for -12.40 units (ROI -2.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+110 vs. BAL), LA ANGELS (+120 vs. NYM), SEATTLE (+102 vs. PHI)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 210-223 record for +6.41 units (ROI 1.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. Awful day on Monday, 7/29, going 0-6 for -6.10 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+110 vs. BAL), LA ANGELS (+120 vs. NYM), SEATTLE (+102 vs. PHI)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 143-132 for -20.50 units (-7.5% ROI) through Saturday 8/3 (bad -6.00 unit day on 8/3).
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-285 vs. CWS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 353-328 (51.8%) for +35.23 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): OAKLAND (+130 vs. LAD)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1615-1506 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -183.01 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-155 at OAK)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1510-1953 (43.6%) for -195.36 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (+130 at PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+230 at MIN), COLORADO (+170 at SD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3266-2853 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -422.87 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, WASHINGTON, DETROIT, TEXAS, MINNESOTA, CINCINNATI, LA ANGELS, SEATTLE

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 300-150 (66.7%) for +38.55 units and an ROI of 8.6%!
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (*if they become a favorite vs SF, +100 currently)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 26-83 skid (-40.36 units, ROI -37%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+230 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-116 skid (-41.59 units, ROI: -25.1%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+230 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-141 (-63.54 units, ROI: -31.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+230 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 30-65 in their last 95 tries (-20.76 units, ROI: -21.9%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+230 at MIN)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +210 (+20 diff), COLORADO +170 (+15 diff), TORONTO +195 (+25 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +230 (+30 diff), TAMPA BAY +136 (+35 diff), OAKLAND +130 (+20 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -155 (+35 diff), MILWAUKEE -130 (+20 diff), TEXAS -125 (+21 diff), NY METS -142 (+15 diff), PHILADELPHIA -122 (+25 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-TEX OVER 8 (+0.5), PHI-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), CWS-MIN UNDER 9 (-0.6), TB-HOU UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), MIA-ATL UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) SAN FRANCISCO (55-57) at (952) CINCINNATI (53-57)
Trend: CIN not as good during the day (18-28, -13.05 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+100 vs SF)

(953) MIAMI (41-70) at (954) ATLANTA (60-50)
Trend: ATL leads the head-to-head season series 7-2 (including 5-1 at home)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-278 vs MIA)

(957) MILWAUKEE (62-48) at (958) WASHINGTON (50-61)
Trend: MIL not as good vs. NL East/West (13-21, -13.57 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-130 at WSH)

(961) COLORADO (41-71) at (962) SAN DIEGO (60-52)
Trend: COL not good on the road (17-42, -12.71 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+170 at SD)

(963) TORONTO (51-60) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (66-46)
Trend: TOR trending Over during the day (30-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(965) KANSAS CITY (62-50) at (966) DETROIT (53-59)
Trend: KC slight Under on the road (21-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(967) BALTIMORE (66-46) at (968) CLEVELAND (67-43)
Trend: Over the total is 6-1 when CLE has been a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(969) CHICAGO-AL (27-86) at (970) MINNESOTA (61-48)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (10-46, -30.85 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+230 at MIN)

(973) BOSTON (58-51) at (974) TEXAS (53-58)
Trend: TEX more Under at home (18-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(977) LOS ANGELES-NL (64-47) at (978) OAKLAND (46-66)
Trend: OAK more Over during the day (28-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(979) PHILADELPHIA (65-45) at (980) SEATTLE (59-53)
Trend: Under the total is 7-3 when SEA is home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(953) MIAMI (41-70) at (954) ATLANTA (60-50)
Trend: MIA is 0-6 (-6.00 units) on the ROAD vs. ATL/NYM with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+225 at ATL)

(961) COLORADO (41-71) at (962) SAN DIEGO (60-52)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is profitable in +135 to +145 line range (9-5 record, +7.55 units) in the last four seasons
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING COLORADO (+145 at SD)

(963) TORONTO (51-60) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (66-46)
Trend: Gerrit Cole is 27-7 (+6.45 units) at home vs teams with a losing record in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-238 vs. TOR)

(967) BALTIMORE (66-46) at (968) CLEVELAND (67-43)
Trend: CLE was 1-6 (-4.90 units) against teams with a win percentage of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams last year
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+110 vs. BAL)

(973) BOSTON (58-51) at (974) TEXAS (53-58)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 22-5 (+17.08 units) in the last 27 day game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-125 vs BOS)

(975) NEW YORK-NL (58-52) at (976) LOS ANGELES-AL (48-63)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 16-3 (+12.10 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last five seasons (including 7-0 on the ROAD)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (*if they fall into this line range, -142 currently)

(979) PHILADELPHIA (65-45) at (980) SEATTLE (59-53)
Trend: PHI is 21-6 (+11.92 units) in the last 27 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-130 at SEA)

Trend: SEA is 29-14 (+20.20 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last 3 seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+110 vs PHI)

Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 8/2-Sun 8/4
Trend: Favorites are just 21-34 (38.2%, -26.91 units) in the last 55 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -48.9%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-238 vs TOR)

Series #29: Boston at Texas, Fri 8/2-Sun 8/4
Trend: Home teams are 15-7 (68.2%, +5.58 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 25.4%
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (-125 vs. BOS)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple on Tuesday 8/6)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR