The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Atlanta has won 13 of the last 14 games against Colorado (92.9%, +9.60 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 68.6%
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-162 at COL)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 300-151 (66.5%) for +37.40 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-135 vs. CIN)

Trend: Jose Berrios is 9-24 (-22.14 units) in night games as short favorite within line range of -120 to -145 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs. OAK)

Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-31, -21.06 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+105 vs. SD)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 82-48 for -25.14 units and an ROI of -19.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-205 vs. PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA GAME 2 (-112 vs. CLE), SEATTLE (-122 vs. NYM)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units. ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA GAME 1 (-142 vs. CLE), CLEVELAND GAME 2 (-108 vs. MIN), NY METS (+102 at SEA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-122 vs. STL), CHICAGO CUBS (-142 at CWS), SEATTLE (-122 vs. NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA GAME 2 (-112 vs. CLE), SEATTLE (-122 vs. NYM)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ATL-COL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 82-48 for -25.14 units and an ROI of -19.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-205 vs. PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs. DET)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 49-30 since opening day 2024 and has lost -15.28 units, an ROI of -19.3%. While still solid results, this angle has cooled of late.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-205 vs. PIT)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 245-293 record, for -12.48 units (ROI -2.3%). This is performing below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+114 vs. BAL), OAKLAND (+114 at TOR), HOUSTON (+114 at BOS), LA ANGELS (-105 at WSH), ST LOUIS (+102 at KC), NY METS (+102 at SEA), CLEVELAND BOTH GAMES of DH

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 219-231 record for +8.26 units (ROI 1.4%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+114 vs. BAL), OAKLAND (+114 at TOR), HOUSTON (+114 at BOS), LA ANGELS (-105 at WSH), ST LOUIS (+102 at KC), NY METS (+102 at SEA), CLEVELAND BOTH GAMES of DH

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 144-135 for -22.82 units (-8.2% ROI) through Thursday, 8/8. We have seen far more lengthy losing streaks this season as compared to winning streaks, and I believe that is greatly affecting this system.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-142 vs. CIN), PHILADELPHIA (-142 at AZ)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 141 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/8 and these teams are 78-63 for +7.47 units. This angle was stuck in neutral for most of the early part of the season but has enjoyed a 33-19, +12.00-unit performance over the last seven weeks or so.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-162 at COL), CLEVELAND GAME 1 (+120 at MIN)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1623-1508 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -177.18 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-192 vs. DET), MILWAUKEE (-135 vs. CIN), NY METS (+102 at SEA), CINCINNATI (+114 at MIL), LA ANGELS (-102 at WSH)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3272-2874 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -441.59 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-192 vs. DET), MILWAUKEE (-135 vs. CIN), KANSAS CITY (-122 vs. STL), TORONTO (-142 vs. OAK), TAMPA BAY (+114 vs. BAL)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 464-400 (53.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +9.22 units, for an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): COLORADO (+136 vs. ATL)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 300-151 (66.5%) for +37.40 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-135 vs. CIN)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 140-149 (+11.31 units, ROI: 3.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+160 at LAD), PLAY ATLANTA (-162 vs. COL)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 174-115 in their last 289 tries (+24.61 units, ROI: 8.5%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-125 at MIA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +170 (+30 diff), TAMPA BAY +114 (+24 diff), HOUSTON +114 (+15 diff), LA ANGELS -105 (+17 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -162 (+30 diff), PHILADELPHIA -142 (+35 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -142 (+25 diff), MINNESOTA GAME 1 -142 (+15 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-MIL OVER 8.5 (+0.6), ATL-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.8), PHI-AZ OVER 8.5 (+0.7), CHC-CWS OVER 7.5 (+0.6), DET-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.7), CLE-MIN OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-LAD UNDER 8 (-0.6), HOU-BOS UNDER 10 (-0.7)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) SAN DIEGO (64-52) at (902) MIAMI (43-73)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-31, -21.06 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+105 vs SD)

(903) CINCINNATI (56-59) at (904) MILWAUKEE (65-49)
Trend: MIL pretty good vs. divisional teams (23-13, +7.66 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-142 vs CIN)

(905) ATLANTA (60-54) at (906) COLORADO (42-74)
Trend: ATL more Under at night (21-45 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 10.5)

(909) PITTSBURGH (56-58) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (66-49)
Trend: LAD slight Over at home (32-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(911) CLEVELAND (67-47) at (912) MINNESOTA (63-50) (DH Game #1)
Trend: MIN better during the day (33-19, +8.78 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-142 vs CLE)

(913) BALTIMORE (68-48) at (914) TAMPA BAY (58-56)
Trend: BAL better vs. divisional teams (24-12, +8.55 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-135 at TB)

(915) TEXAS (54-61) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (68-48)
Trend: NYY good vs. AL West/Central (30-10, +11.04 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-180 vs TEX)

(917) OAKLAND (48-68) at (918) TORONTO (53-62)
Trend: OAK worse on the road (19-38, -5.70 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+114 at TOR)

(919) HOUSTON (59-55) at (920) BOSTON (61-52)
Trend: HOU slight Under vs. AL East/Central (16-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 10)

(925) ST LOUIS (59-57) at (926) KANSAS CITY (64-52)
Trend: KC better at home (37-24, +9.57 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-122 vs STL)

(927) CHICAGO-NL (57-60) at (928) CHICAGO-AL (28-89)
Trend: CWS terrible at night (18-51, -25.59 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+120 vs CHC)

(929) NEW YORK-NL (61-54) at (930) SEATTLE (60-56)
Trend: SEA more Under at home (19-38 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) SAN DIEGO (64-52) at (902) MIAMI (43-73)
Trend: MIA is 10-5 (+6.54 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+105 vs SD)

(903) CINCINNATI (56-59) at (904) MILWAUKEE (65-49)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 18-8 (+3.07 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-135 vs CIN)

(913) BALTIMORE (68-48) at (914) TAMPA BAY (58-56)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 18-5 (+12.01 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick ’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-135 at TB)

Trend: Zach Eflin is 15-7 (+6.03 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-135 at TB)

(915) TEXAS (54-61) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (68-48)
Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 1-10 (-18.20 units) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (*if they fall into this line range, -180 currently*)

(917) OAKLAND (48-68) at (918) TORONTO (53-62)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 9-24 (-22.14 units) in night games as short favorite within line range of -120 to -145 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs OAK)

(921) CLEVELAND (67-47) at (922) MINNESOTA (63-50) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Alex Cobb is 2-11 (-10.85 units) in road games in AUG/SEP/OCT in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-108 at MIN)

(927) CHICAGO-NL (57-60) at (928) CHICAGO-AL (28-89)
Trend: CHC is 12-4 (+6.38 units) against AL Central by starter Jameson Taillon
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-142 at CWS)

Trend: CHC is 13-3 (+8.38 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (*if they fall into this line range, -142 currently)

Series #21: Atlanta at Colorado, Fri 8/9-Sun 8/11
Trend: Atlanta has won 13 of the last 14 games against Colorado (92.9%, +9.60 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 68.6%
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-162 at COL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

BALTIMORE    
Letdown after series vs. TORONTO: 9-19 (32.1%) -8.68 units, ROI: -31%   
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/9 at Tampa Bay
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-135 at TB)

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