The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, July 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Under the total is 14-5 (73.7%, +8.50 units) in the last 19 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 44.7%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 265-218 (54.7%) for +44.29 units and an ROI of 9.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-198 vs AZ)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 162-165 record, for +12.27 units (ROI 3.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+102 at PIT), PHILADELPHIA (+105 at CHC), HOUSTON (-105 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (-105 at KC), BALTIMORE (-105 at SEA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-122 vs. STL), TORONTO (-115 vs. HOU)

Trend: PHI trending Under vs. NL Central/West (13-26 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

Trend: SEA is 10-1 (+8.60 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-115 vs BAL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this “super” majority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-205 vs. CIN), KANSAS CITY (-115 vs. TB)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-105 at TOR), MINNESOTA (-112 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-166 at MIA), NY YANKEES (-205 vs. CIN), SAN DIEGO (-108 at TEX)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: DET-MIN, SD-TEX, BAL-SEA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-122 vs. STL), TORONTO (-115 vs. HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND RL (vs. CWS), NY YANKEES RL (vs. CIN), PHILADELPHIA RL (at CHC), LA DODGERS RL (vs. AZ)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the ’24 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units thru 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, NY METS, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, TEXAS

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 59-33 for -11.69 units and an ROI of -12.7%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-198 vs. AZ), FADE NY YANKEES (-205 vs. CIN)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the first half of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is at 65-26 for -0.28 units (awful past series by Philadelphia vs. MIA, losing two games as big favorites).
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-205 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 38-22 since opening day 2024 and has lost -9.63 units, a season long ROI of -16.1%.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-205 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 184-218 record, for -5.96 units (ROI -1.3%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 28-27 for +5.83 units over the last fifteen days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+102 at PIT), PHILADELPHIA (+105 at CHC), HOUSTON (-105 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (-105 at KC), BALTIMORE (-105 at SEA)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 162-165 record for +12.27 units (ROI 3.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+102 at PIT), PHILADELPHIA (+105 at CHC), HOUSTON (-105 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (-105 at KC), BALTIMORE (-105 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 97-112 for -13.13 units. The three-game teams are 51-54 for -0.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE COLORADO (+102 vs. MIL), FADE ARIZONA (+164 at LAD)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 117-100 for -2.64 units (-1.2% ROI) through Monday, 7/1.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-105 at TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1572-1461 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.85 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+154 at ATL), TEXAS (-112 vs. SD), WASHINGTON (+120 vs. NYM)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1455-1900 (43.4%) for -201.32 units and an ROI of -6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-108 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+102 at PIT), CINCINNATI (+170 at NYY), BALTIMORE (-105 at SEA)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3177-2764 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -389.88 units and a ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, MIAMI, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, TEXAS, COLORADO, WASHINGTON

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 896-770 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.35 units for backers and an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-130 vs. PHI), TORONTO (-115 vs. HOU)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 265-218 (54.7%) for +44.29 units and an ROI of 9.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-198 vs. AZ)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA +105 (+16 diff), CINCINNATI +170 (+16 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -122 (+40 diff), KANSAS CITY -115 (+15 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-COL OVER 11 (+0.7), LAA-OAK OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) ST LOUIS (43-40) at (902) PITTSBURGH (40-43)
Trend: STL leaning Under in divisional play (7-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(903) NEW YORK-NL (41-41) at (904) WASHINGTON (39-45)
Trend: NYM trending Over on the road (23-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(905) SAN FRANCISCO (41-44) at (906) ATLANTA (46-36)
Trend: ATL more Under vs. RH starters (15-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(907) PHILADELPHIA (55-29) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (39-46)
Trend: PHI trending Under vs. NL Central/West (13-26 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(909) MILWAUKEE (50-35) at (910) COLORADO (29-55)
Trend: COL not as good vs. NL Central/East (8-21, -8.92 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+102 vs MIL)

(913) CHICAGO-AL (24-62) at (914) CLEVELAND (52-30)
Trend: CWS bad on the road (8-33, -20.45 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at CLE)

(915) HOUSTON (43-41) at (916) TORONTO (38-46)
Trend: HOU trending Under vs. AL Central/West (11-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(917) DETROIT (38-46) at (918) MINNESOTA (47-37)
Trend: MIN better vs. LH starters (15-8, +6.29 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-122 vs DET)

(919) TAMPA BAY (42-42) at (920) KANSAS CITY (47-39)
Trend: KC good at home (30-16, +12.93 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-115 vs TB)

(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-47) at (922) OAKLAND (30-56)
Trend: OAK not great vs. RH starters (22-45, -15.53 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (-105 vs LAA)

(923) BALTIMORE (53-31) at (924) SEATTLE (47-39)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (13-27 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(925) BOSTON (44-39) at (926) MIAMI (30-54)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (28-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(927) CINCINNATI (39-45) at (928) NEW YORK-AL (54-32)
Trend: NYY great vs. RH starters (44-20, +18.43 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-205 vs CIN)

(929) SAN DIEGO (46-42) at (930) TEXAS (38-46)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (11-26 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) ST LOUIS (43-40) at (902) PITTSBURGH (40-43)
Trend: Kyle Gibson is 5-11 (-8.60 units) as a shorter road underdog between line range of -105 to +130 against NL teams in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+102 at PIT)

(903) NEW YORK-NL (41-41) at (904) WASHINGTON (39-45)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 2-6 (-5.49 units) against NL East opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-142 at WSH)

(915) HOUSTON (43-41) at (916) TORONTO (38-46)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 9-23 (-20.84 units) in night games as short favorite within line range of -120 to -145 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (*if they fall into this line range, -115 currently*)

(923) BALTIMORE (53-31) at (924) SEATTLE (47-39)
Trend: SEA is 10-1 (+8.60 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-115 vs BAL)

Series #6: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, Tue 7/2-Thu 7/4
Trend: Under the total is 14-5 (73.7%, +8.50 units) in the last 19 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 44.7%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

Series #8: Milwaukee at Colorado, Mon 7/1-Thu 7/4
Trend: Home teams are 14-3 (82.4%, +10.89 units) in the last 17 games between Colorado and Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 64.1%
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+100 vs. MIL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, 7/5)

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