The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Luis Severino is 5-14 (-7.85 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-105 vs. ATL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 268-220 (54.9%) for +45.17 units and an ROI of 9.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+136 vs. SD)
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 26-80 skid (-37.36 units, ROI -35.2%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 at TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): BALTIMORE (-205 at MIA)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 20-5 (+11.40 units) in the last 25 day games starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-245 vs. CWS)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 122 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/24 and these teams are 67-55 for +5.62 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 22-11, +10.15-unit performance over the last month-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-205 at MIA), ATLANTA (-115 at NYM)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different MLB betting trend systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
- Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
- Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
- Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
- Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and a ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-115 vs. TB), NY METS (-105 vs. ATL), OAKLAND (-105 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): WATCH FOR TEXAS vs. CWS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): BALTIMORE (-205 at MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): BALTIMORE (-205 at MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and an ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE YET TODAY
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the ’24 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, TEXAS, TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS, BALTIMORE
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. The 2024 record of this angle so far is slightly positive at 73-28 for +0.70 units.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-245 vs. CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 217-256 record, for -6.58 units (ROI -1.4%).
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-105 at TOR)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 194-200 record, for +12.87 units (ROI 3.3%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-105 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 120-141 for -14.98 units. The three-game teams are 59-62 for +1.19 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MIAMI (+170 vs. BAL)
3-games – FADE NY METS (-105 vs. ATL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 133-121 for -14.89 units (-5.9% ROI) through Wednesday 7/24.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-162 at WSH), LA ANGELS (-115 vs. OAK), TEXAS (-245 vs. CWS)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 122 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/24 and these teams are 67-55 for +5.62 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 22-11, +10.15-unit performance over the last month-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-205 at MIA), ATLANTA (-115 at NYM)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 351-325 (51.9%) for +36.71 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+136 vs SD)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1597-1488 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -180.37 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-162 at WSH), NY METS (-105 vs. ATL), TEXAS (-245 vs. CWS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1497-1934 (43.6%) for -189.81 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND (-105 at LAA), DETROIT (+150 at CLE), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 at TEX)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3230-2825 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -420.17 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-105 vs. ATL), TORONTO (-115 vs. TB), TEXAS (-245 vs. CWS)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 907-791 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +9.43 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-180 vs DET)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 459-395 (53.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +9.76 units, for an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-180 vs. DET), LA ANGELS (-115 vs. OAK)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 295-149 (66.4%) for +34.80 units and an ROI of 7.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (*if they become a favorite vs. ATL, -105 currently*)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 268-220 (54.9%) for +45.17 units and an ROI of 9.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+136 vs SD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 26-80 skid (-37.36 units, ROI -35.2%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 at TEX)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-107 skid (-32.59 units, ROI: -20.8%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 at TEX)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-132 (-54.54 units, ROI: -28.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 at TEX)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 171-157 run (+41.78 units, ROI: 12.7%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 at TEX)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 138-142 (+16.09 units, ROI: 5.7%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 at TEX)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +200 (+18 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -135 (+26 diff), SAN DIEGO -162 (+15 diff), BALTIMORE -205 (+15 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-LAA UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), SD-WSH UNDER 9 (-0.7), SF-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) SAN DIEGO (54-50) at (952) WASHINGTON (47-55)
Trend: SD slight Over during the day (24-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(953) SAN FRANCISCO (49-54) at (954) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-42)
Trend: SF worse vs. LH starters (11-19, -11.44 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at LAD)
(955) ATLANTA (54-46) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (53-48)
Trend: Under the total is 8-3 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings in NY
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(957) DETROIT (50-53) at (958) CLEVELAND (61-40)
Trend: CLE good at home (33-14, +11.86 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-180 vs DET)
(959) CHICAGO-AL (27-77) at (960) TEXAS (50-52)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (10-43, -27.85 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 at TEX)
(963) OAKLAND (41-63) at (964) LOS ANGELES-AL (45-57)
Trend: OAK decent bet vs. LH starters (10-11, +4.36 units)
System Match: PLAY OAKLAND (-105 at LAA)
(965) BALTIMORE (60-41) at (966) MIAMI (37-65)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (36-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) SAN DIEGO (54-50) at (952) WASHINGTON (47-55)
Trend: Dylan Cease is 11-2 (+6.82 units) in the last five seasons as a large road favorite (-170 or higher)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (*if they fall into this line range, -162 currently)
(953) SAN FRANCISCO (49-54) at (954) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-42)
Trend: Logan Webb is 5-2 (+6.34 units) on the road vs. LA Dodgers in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+120 at LAD)
(955) ATLANTA (54-46) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (53-48)
Trend: Luis Severino is 5-14 (-7.85 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-105 vs. ATL)
(957) DETROIT (50-53) at (958) CLEVELAND (61-40)
Trend: CLE is 5-3 (+0.50 units) in divisional games in the last two seasons with starter Gavin Williams
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING CLEVELAND (-180 vs. DET)
(959) CHICAGO-AL (27-77) at (960) TEXAS (50-52)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 20-5 (+11.40 units) in the last 25 day games starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-245 vs. CWS)
(961) TAMPA BAY (51-51) at (962) TORONTO (46-55)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 11-2 (+9.30 units) in July/Aug/Sept day games in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-115 vs. TB)
(963) OAKLAND (41-63) at (964) LOS ANGELES-AL (45-57)
Trend: Ross Stripling is 4-13 (-6.95 units) as a night underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (-105 at LAA)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 7/29)
