The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Under the total is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between ATL-NYM in New York (including 4-0 this season)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-14 (-10.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-170 vs. CLE), CINCINNATI (-112 at TB), BALTIMORE (-192 vs. SD), LA DODGERS (+105 at HOU), KANSAS CITY (-148 vs. CHC)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 124 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/25 and these teams are 68-56 for +5.40 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 23-12, +9.93-unit performance over the last month-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+114 at NYM), SEATTLE (-166 at CWS)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 295-149 (66.4%) for +34.80 units and an ROI of 7.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-175 vs. PIT)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 first half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-148 vs. CHC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-112 at TB), TEXAS (+110 at TOR), OAKLAND (-108 at LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-170 vs. CLE), CINCINNATI (-112 at TB), BALTIMORE (-192 vs. SD), LA DODGERS (+105 at HOU), KANSAS CITY (-148 vs. CHC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in JULY games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and an ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, PITTSBURGH, SAN FRANCISCO, MINNESOTA, TEXAS, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, LA ANGELS, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 68-41 for -23.47 units and an ROI of -21.5%.
System Matches (FADE): BALTIMORE (-192 vs. SD)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. The 2024 record of this angle so far is slightly positive at 75-28 for +2.70 units.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-225 vs. MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 218-256 record, for -5.58 units (ROI -1.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+114 at NYM), PITTSBURGH (+145 at AZ), TEXAS (+110 at TOR), CLEVELAND (+142 at PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at KC)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 195-200 record for +13.87 units (ROI 3.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+114 at NYM), TEXAS (+110 at TOR), CLEVELAND (+142 at PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at KC)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 120-142 for -15.98 units. The three-game teams are 60-62 for +2.21 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ARIZONA (-175 vs. PIT)
3+ games – FADE NY METS (-135 vs. ATL), FADE SAN DIEGO (+160 at BAL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 135-122 for -14.04 units (-5.5% ROI) through Thursday 7/25.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (+110 at TOR)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 124 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/25 and these teams are 68-56 for +5.40 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 23-12, +9.93-unit performance over the last month-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+114 at NYM), SEATTLE (-166 at CWS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1600-1488 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -177.35 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-110 vs. CIN), CINCINNATI (-110 at TB), COLORADO (+154 at SF)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1499-1935 (43.7%) for -188.57 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, SEATTLE, WASHINGTON, CLEVELAND, TEXAS, ATLANTA

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3232-2826 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -419.30 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 907-792 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +7.95 units for backers and an ROI of 0.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-130 vs. TEX), NY METS (-135 vs. ATL)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 295-149 (66.4%) for +34.80 units and an ROI of 7.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-175 vs PIT)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 268-221 (54.8%) for +44.17 units and an ROI of 9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+100 vs NYY), TORONTO (-130 vs TEX)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-108 skid (-33.59 units, ROI: -21.3%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs SEA)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-133 (-55.54 units, ROI: -28.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs SEA)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 171-158 run (+40.78 units, ROI: 12.4%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs SEA)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 138-143 (+15.09 units, ROI: 5.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs SEA)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 59-50 (+12.98 units, ROI: 11.9%) in their last 109 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+110 at TOR)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 131-97 (+21.14 units, ROI: 9.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+110 at TOR)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 174-113 in their last 287 tries (+26.63 units, ROI: 9.3%).
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+110 at TOR)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 22-50 (-8.41 units, ROI: -11.7%) in their last 72 tries.
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO (+160 at BAL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +185 (+20 diff), PITTSBURGH +145 (+25 diff), DETROIT +145 (+22 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS -170 (+19 diff), SEATTLE -166 (+30 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-DET OVER 7.5 (+0.8), NYY-BOS OVER 9.5 (+0.7), SEA-CWS OVER 7 (+0.7), CLE-PHI OVER 8 (+0.7), LAD-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.7), MIA-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-LAA UNDER 9.5 (-1.1)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) ATLANTA (54-47) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (54-48)
Trend: UNDER the total is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings in NY (including 4-0 this season)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(903) MIAMI (37-66) at (904) MILWAUKEE (59-43)
Trend: MIA slight Under on the road (18-29 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(907) PITTSBURGH (52-50) at (908) ARIZONA (53-50)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs. NL East/Central (12-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(909) COLORADO (38-65) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (49-55)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (11-20, -12.44 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-185 vs COL)

(911) MINNESOTA (56-45) at (912) DETROIT (51-53)
Trend: MIN pretty good this season as road favorite (18-10 record)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-175 at DET)

(913) TEXAS (51-52) at (914) TORONTO (46-56)
Trend: TEX solid vs. AL East/Central (22-14, +8.21 units)
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+110 at TOR)

(915) NEW YORK-AL (60-44) at (916) BOSTON (54-47)
Trend: NYY more Over in divisional play (22-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(917) SEATTLE (53-51) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (27-78)
Trend: SEA trending Under at night (23-41 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(919) OAKLAND (42-63) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (45-58)
Trend: OAK is 6-1 to the Over in the last seven games
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(921) CLEVELAND (61-41) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (64-38)
Trend: CLE better vs. LH starters (21-8, +11.34 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+142 at PHI)

(923) CINCINNATI (49-53) at (924) TAMPA BAY (52-51)
Trend: TB trending Over vs. LH starters (17-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(925) SAN DIEGO (55-50) at (926) BALTIMORE (61-41)
Trend: SD more Under in interleague play (9-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(927) LOS ANGELES-NL (62-42) at (928) HOUSTON (53-49)
Trend: LAD is just 2-6 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+105 at HOU)

(929) CHICAGO-NL (49-55) at (930) KANSAS CITY (56-47)
Trend: KC great at home (35-20, +13.27 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-148 vs CHC)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) ATLANTA (54-47) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (54-48)
Trend: NYM was 9-2 (+6.65 units) in the shorter pick ’em/favorite line scenario (-110 to -130) with starter Kodai Senga last season
System Match: PLAY NY METS (*if they fall into this line range, -135 currently)

(903) MIAMI (37-66) at (904) MILWAUKEE (59-43)
Trend: MIA is 12-27 (-9.95 units) on the road with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+185 at MIL)

(909) COLORADO (38-65) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (49-55)
Trend: Kyle Freeland is bad on the road (5-14, -5.26 units) in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+154 at SF)

(913) TEXAS (51-52) at (914) TORONTO (46-56)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 12-19 (-16.31 units) as a night home favorite in career
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-130 vs TEX)

(915) NEW YORK-AL (60-44) at (916) BOSTON (54-47)
Trend: BOS is 9-14 (-3.89 units) against divisional teams with starter Brayan Bell
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+100 vs. NYY)

(917) SEATTLE (53-51) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (27-78)
Trend: SEA is 13-7 (+1.45 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-162 at CWS)

(923) CINCINNATI (49-53) at (924) TAMPA BAY (52-51)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 12-7 (+6.69 units) vs. teams with a winning record in his career
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-110 at TB)

(929) CHICAGO-NL (49-55) at (930) KANSAS CITY (56-47)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-14 (-10.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at KC)

Trend: KC is 6-8 (-6.30 units) as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range with starter Brady Singer
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-148 vs. CHC)

Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 7/26-Sun 7/28
Trend: Colorado is 7-22 (24.1%, -12.13 units) in their last 29 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -41.8%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+154 at SF)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 7/29)

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