The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, July 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Jose Berrios is 24-5 (+15.80 units) in home day games in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-105 vs. TEX)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 270-221 (55%) for +46.22 units and an ROI of 9.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-108 vs. NYY), ST LOUIS (-155 vs. WSH)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 122-142 for -13.88 units. The three-game teams are 64-63 for +5.71 units.
System Matches: 2-games –FADE WASHINGTON (+130 at STL), FADE TORONTO (-105 vs. TEX)
3+ games – FADE ARIZONA (-102 vs. PIT), FADE SAN DIEGO (+130 at BAL)

Trend: Colorado is 7-25 (21.9%, -15.13 units) in their last 32 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -47.3%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+170 at SF)

Trend: Under the total is 10-4 in the last 14 ATL-NYM head-to-head meetings in NY (including 5-1 this season)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY (WATCH FOR MILWAUKEE vs MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-115 at TOR), LA DODGERS (+105 at HOU), LA ANGELS (-135 vs. OAK), PITTSBURGH (-118 at AZ), NY YANKEES (-112 at BOS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-135 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. CLE), BALTIMORE (-155 vs. SD), LA DODGERS (+105 at HOU), KANSAS CITY (-170 vs. CHC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and an ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE YET TODAY

    MLB Bullpen Systems

    The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

    The easiest way to play the bullpen system
    Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
    System Matches: ATLANTA, MIAMI, ST LOUIS, PITTSBURGH, NY YANKEES, TEXAS, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, OAKLAND, CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS

    Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

    Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
    In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 71-42 for -22.52 units and an ROI of -19.9%.
    System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs. COL)

    Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
    In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 42-28 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -18.31 units, a season-low ROI of -26.2%.
    System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs COL)

    Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
    A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 223-265 record for -8.95 units (ROI -1.8%).
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-108 at NYM), MIAMI (+160 at MIL), SEATTLE (-108 at CWS), OAKLAND (+114 at LAA), CLEVELAND (+124 at PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (+142 at KC)

    Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
    Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 199-208 record for +9.96 units (ROI 2.4%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-108 at NYM), SEATTLE (-108 at CWS), OAKLAND (+114 at LAA), CLEVELAND (+124 at PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (+142 at KC)

    Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
    In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 122-142 for -13.88 units. The three-game teams are 64-63 for +5.71 units.
    System Matches: 2-games –FADE WASHINGTON (+130 at STL), FADE TORONTO (-105 vs. TEX)
    3+ games – FADE ARIZONA (-102 vs. PIT), FADE SAN DIEGO (+130 at BAL)

    Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
    In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 136-123 for -14.04 units (-5.4% ROI) thru Saturday 7/27.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs. COL), OAKLAND +114 at LAA), HOUSTON (-125 vs. LAD)

    Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
    Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 129 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/27 and these teams are 72-57 for +8.54 units (6.6% ROI).
    System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-155 vs. WSH)

    MLB Extreme Stats Systems

    The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

    HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
    Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 351-327 (51.8%) for +34.71 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.1%.
    System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-155 vs WSH)

    “9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
    Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1604-1492 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -177.55 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+130 at BAL), NY YANKEES (-112 at BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (+142 at KC), WASHINGTON (+130 at STL), ARIZONA (-102 vs. PIT)

    Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
    You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1503-1940 (43.7%) for -188.49 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-130 at TB), CLEVELAND (+124 at PHI), COLORADO (+170 at SF), MINNESOTA (-185 at DET)

    Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
    Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3239-2833 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -421.94 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT

    Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
    MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 909-792 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +9.95 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (-135 vs. OAK), NY METS (-112 vs. ATL)

    Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
    Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 297-149 (66.6%) for +36.80 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
    System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. CLE)

    Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
    Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 270-221 (55%) for +46.22 units and an ROI of 9.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-108 vs. NYY), ST LOUIS (-155 vs. WSH)

    MLB Streak Systems

    The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

    Losing Streak Betting System #2:
    Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-110 skid (-35.59 units, ROI: -22.2%).
    System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs SEA)

    Losing Streak Betting System #3:
    Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-135 (-57.54 units, ROI: -29.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
    System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs SEA)

    Losing Streak Betting System #6:
    Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 171-160 run (+38.78 units, ROI: 11.7%).
    System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs SEA)

    Losing Streak Betting System #7:
    The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 138-145 (+13.09 units, ROI: 4.6%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
    System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs SEA)

    Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

    The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

    Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: ATLANTA -102 (+27 diff), MIAMI +145 (+35), BOSTON -105 (+40), TORONTO +102 (+15), SEATTLE -108 (+41), CHICAGO CUBS +150 (+22)

    Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: ST LOUIS -170 (+15 diff), ARIZONA -118 (+16), PHILADELPHIA -135 (+22 diff)

    Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: COL-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.66), NYY-BOS OVER 9 (+0.58), MIN-DET OVER 8 (+0.52)

    Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: TEX-TOR UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), OAK-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.86)

    MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

    The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

    (901) ATLANTA (55-48) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (55-49)
    Trend: Under the total is 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings in NY (including 5-1 this season)
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

    (903) MIAMI (39-66) at (904) MILWAUKEE (59-45)
    Trend: MIL trending Over at home (29-15 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

    (907) COLORADO (38-68) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (52-55)
    Trend: COL not as good on the road (14-39, -13.50 units)
    System Match: FADE COLORADO (+170 at SF)

    (909) PITTSBURGH (52-52) at (910) ARIZONA (55-50)
    Trend: AZ trending Under vs. NL East/Central (13-25 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

    (911) NEW YORK-AL (61-45) at (912) BOSTON (55-48)
    Trend: NYY more Over in divisional play (24-14 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

    (913) TEXAS (51-54) at (914) TORONTO (48-56)
    Trend: TEX not as good on the road (22-31, -9.63 units)
    System Match: FADE TEXAS (-115 at TOR)

    (915) MINNESOTA (57-46) at (916) DETROIT (52-54)
    Trend: MIN pretty good this season as road favorite (19-11 record)
    System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-185 at DET)

    (917) SEATTLE (55-51) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (27-80)
    Trend: CWS decent as home favorite (4-2 record this season)
    System Match: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs SEA)

    (921) CINCINNATI (50-54) at (922) TAMPA BAY (53-52)
    Trend: CIN not as good during the day (18-27, -11.87 units)
    System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-130 at TB)

    (923) CLEVELAND (62-42) at (924) PHILADELPHIA (65-39)
    Trend: CLE slight Under in interleague play (7-15 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

    (925) SAN DIEGO (57-50) at (926) BALTIMORE (61-43)
    Trend: SD slight Over during the day (25-17 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

    (927) LOS ANGELES-NL (62-44) at (928) HOUSTON (55-49)
    Trend: LAD is just 2-8 as a road underdog this season
    System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+105 at HOU)

    (929) CHICAGO-NL (50-56) at (930) KANSAS CITY (57-48)
    Trend: CHC worse vs. LH starters (6-14, -10.44 units)
    System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+142 at KC)

    MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

    The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

    (907) COLORADO (38-68) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (52-55)
    Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 3-17 (-11.20 units) as large underdog of +175 or more
    System Match: FADE COLORADO (*if they become a +175 underdog or worse, +170 currently)

    (911) NEW YORK-AL (61-45) at (912) BOSTON (55-48)
    Trend: BOS is 3-12 (-9.55 units) in the -120 to +100 line range with starter Tanner Houck
    System Match: FADE BOSTON (-108 vs NYY)

    (913) TEXAS (51-54) at (914) TORONTO (48-56)
    Trend: Jose Berrios is 24-5 (+15.80 units) in home day games in the last five seasons
    System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-105 vs TEX)

    (917) SEATTLE (55-51) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (27-80)
    Trend: Bryce Miller is 7-1 (+6.19 units) against the AL Central in the last two seasons
    System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-108 at CWS)

    Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 7/26-Sun 7/28
    Trend: Colorado is 7-25 (21.9%, -15.13 units) in their L32 games vs. San Francisco
    – The R.O.I. on this trend is -47.3%
    System Match: FADE COLORADO (+170 at SF)

    Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

    The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

    NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 7/29)

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