The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

NYY LETDOWN after series vs. BOSTON: 15-15 (51.7%) -11.32 units, ROI: -35%      
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (+120 at PHI)

Trend: Jose Quintana is 16-3 (+12.10 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-120 vs MIN)

Trend: Over the total is 13-1 (92.9%, +12.00 units) since 2019 in SEA-BOS h2h games in Boston
– The ROI on this trend is 85.7%
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 30-60 in their last 90 tries (-15.76 units, ROI: -17.5%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 vs KC)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 202-209 record for +12.01 units (ROI 2.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at CIN), ATLANTA (-102 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+136 at AZ), SEATTLE (+102 at BOS), MINNESOTA (+100 at NYM), ST LOUIS (-108 vs. TEX), HOUSTON (+114 vs. PIT)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at CIN), NY METS (-120 vs MIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (+114 at PHI), MINNESOTA (+100 at NYM), TEXAS (-112 at STL), PITTSBURGH (-135 at HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
Majority handle bettors in JULY games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and an ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE YET TODAY

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher, went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE (BOTH GAMES)

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 227-266 record, for -5.40 units (ROI -1.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at CIN), ATLANTA (-102 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+136 at AZ), SEATTLE (+102 at BOS), MINNESOTA (+100 at NYM), ST LOUIS (-108 vs. TEX), HOUSTON (+114 vs PIT)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 202-209 record for +12.01 units (ROI 2.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at CIN), ATLANTA (-102 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+136 at AZ), SEATTLE (+102 at BOS), MINNESOTA (+100 at NYM), ST LOUIS (-108 vs. TEX), HOUSTON (+114 vs. PIT)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 123-144 for -14.74 units. The three-game teams are 64-65 for +3.53 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY YANKEES (+120 at PHI)
3-games – FADE TORONTO GAME 1 (+154 at BAL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 137-125 for -15.39 units (-5.9% ROI) through Sunday 7/28.
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (+102 at BOS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1606-1495 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -178.23 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): ATLANTA (-105 at MIL)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3241-2838 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -425.63 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-185 vs. TOR), MILWAUKEE (-115 vs. ATL), ARIZONA (-162 vs. WSH)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 910-793 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +9.80 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+102 vs. CLE), HOUSTON (+114 vs. PIT)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 459-397 (53.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +7.13 units, for an ROI of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-112 vs. CHC), DETROIT (+102 vs. CLE)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-111 skid (-36.59 units, ROI: -22.7%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 vs. KC)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-136 (-58.54 units, ROI: -29.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 vs. KC)

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 30-60 in their last 90 tries (-15.76 units, ROI: -17.5%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 vs KC)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 171-161 run (+37.78 units, ROI: 11.4%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 vs KC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -142 (+34 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-MIL OVER 8 (+0.7)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-PHI UNDER 9 (-0.8), CHC-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), TOR-BAL GAME 2 UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) CHICAGO-NL (51-56) at (952) CINCINNATI (50-55)
Trend: Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings in Cincinnati
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(953) ATLANTA (56-48) at (954) MILWAUKEE (60-45)
Trend: ATL is 11-4 in the last 15 head-to-head meetings vs. MIL
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-102 at MIL)

(955) WASHINGTON (49-57) at (956) ARIZONA (55-51)
Trend: AZ not as good vs. LH starters (16-21, -10.00 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (-162 vs WSH)

(957) TORONTO (49-56) at (958) BALTIMORE (62-43) (DH Game #1)
Trend: BAL trending Over during the day (24-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(959) TORONTO (49-56) at (960) BALTIMORE (62-43) (DH Game #2)
Trend: TOR trending Over vs. divisional teams (21-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(961) CLEVELAND (63-42) at (962) DETROIT (52-55)
Trend: Over the total is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in Detroit
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7)

(965) KANSAS CITY (57-49) at (966) CHICAGO-AL (27-81)
Trend: CWS awful vs. RH starters (20-67, -39.32 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 vs KC)

(967) NEW YORK-AL (62-45) at (968) PHILADELPHIA (65-40)
Trend: PHI good at night (44-22, +9.79 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs NYY)

(973) PITTSBURGH (53-52) at (974) HOUSTON (55-50)
Trend: Under the total is 5-2 this season when HOU is home underdog
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(953) ATLANTA (56-48) at (954) MILWAUKEE (60-45)
Trend: MIL is much better in the -120 to +135 line range with starter Colin Rea (17-3 record, +15.64 units) in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-118 vs. ATL)

(957) TORONTO (49-56) at (958) BALTIMORE (62-43) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 14-7 (+5.03 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-185 vs TOR)

(961) CLEVELAND (63-42) at (962) DETROIT (52-55)
Trend: CLE is 15-3 (+12.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-122 at DET)

(963) SEATTLE (56-51) at (964) BOSTON (55-49)
Trend: SEA is 29-13 (+21.20 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last three seasons, including 14-5 (+10.21 units) on the ROAD within -105 to +115 line range
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+102 at BOS)

(969) MINNESOTA (58-46) at (970) NEW YORK-NL (55-50)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 16-3 (+12.10 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-120 vs MIN)

Series #28: Seattle at Boston, Mon 7/29-Wed 7/31
Trend: OVER the total is 13-1 (92.9%, +12.00 units) since 2019 in SEA-BOS head-to-head games in Boston
– The ROI on this trend is 85.7%
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 14-16 (46.7%) -5.72 units, ROI: -19.1%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 7/29 at Milwaukee
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-102 at MIL)

NY YANKEES   
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 15-15 (51.7%) -11.32 units, ROI: -35%  
Next betting opportunity: Monday 7/29 at Philadelphia
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (+120 at PHI)

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