Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, July 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 1-9 (-16.35 units) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-185 vs. CIN)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (29-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 97-114 for -15.18 units. The 3-game teams are 51-54 for -0.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+170 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 14-6 (70%, +7.42 units) in the last 20 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 37.1%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (-125 vs. STL), FADE TEXAS (-142 vs. SD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-205 vs. SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 UNITS and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is not a loss and definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-125 vs. STL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-142 at MIA), NY YANKEES (-185 vs. CIN), TEXAS (-142 vs. SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: BAL-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: SF-ATL, PHI-CHC
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (-125 vs. STL), FADE TEXAS (-142 vs. SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND RL (vs. CWS), KANSAS CITY RL (vs. TB), MILWAUKEE RL (at COL), LA DODGERS RL (vs. AZ)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the ’24 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units through 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, NY METS, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, NY YANKEES, TEXAS
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 59-35 for -15.85 units and an ROI of -16.9%.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-205 vs. SF), FADE LA DODGERS (-218 vs. AZ)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 39-22 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -8.63 units, a season-long ROI of -14.1%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-218 vs. AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 189-219 record for -1.97 units (ROI -0.5%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 33-28 for +9.82 units over the last sixteen days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+105 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-108 at KC), BALTIMORE (+102 at SEA)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 167-166 record for +16.26 units (ROI 4.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+105 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-108 at KC), BALTIMORE (+102 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 97-114 for -15.18 units. The three-game teams are 51-54 for -0.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+170 at ATL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 117-101 for -3.69 units (-1.7% ROI) through Tuesday, 7/2.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-170 vs DET)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1458-1901 (43.4%) for -198.68 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+120 at TEX), BALTIMORE (+105 at SEA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3179-2769 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -394.29 units and an ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, TEXAS, OAKLAND, LA DODGERS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 897-771 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.13 units for backers and an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (-125 vs BAL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 449-386 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +10.38 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (-125 vs BAL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA +180 (+20 diff), DETROIT +142 (+15 diff), BALTIMORE +102 (+19 diff), CINCINNATI +154 (+30 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -155 (+35 diff), HOUSTON -115 (+25 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-ATL OVER 7.5 (+0.5), TB-KC OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), CWS-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), HOU-TOR UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), DET-MIN UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) ST LOUIS (44-40) at (952) PITTSBURGH (40-44)
Trend: STL leaning Under in divisional play (8-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(953) NEW YORK-NL (42-41) at (954) WASHINGTON (39-46)
Trend: NYM trending Over on the road (23-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(955) SAN FRANCISCO (42-44) at (956) ATLANTA (46-37)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (10-16, -8.78 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+170 at ATL)
(957) PHILADELPHIA (56-29) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (39-47)
Trend: PHI trending Under vs. NL Central/West (14-26 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(959) MILWAUKEE (51-35) at (960) COLORADO (29-56)
Trend: COL worse vs. NL Central/East (8-22, -9.97 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+130 vs MIL)
(963) CHICAGO-AL (24-63) at (964) CLEVELAND (53-30)
Trend: CWS bad on the road (8-34, -21.45 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+154 at CLE)
(965) HOUSTON (43-42) at (966) TORONTO (39-46)
Trend: HOU not as good vs. LH starters (10-15, -10.57 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-112 at TOR)
(969) TAMPA BAY (43-42) at (970) KANSAS CITY (47-40)
Trend: KC good at home (30-17, +11.75 units
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-112 vs TB)
(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-48) at (972) OAKLAND (31-56)
Trend: OAK not great vs. RH starters (23-45, -14.53 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (-108 vs. LAA)
(973) BALTIMORE (54-31) at (974) SEATTLE (47-40)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (13-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(975) BOSTON (45-39) at (976) MIAMI (30-55)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (29-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(977) CINCINNATI (40-45) at (978) NEW YORK-AL (54-33)
Trend: NYY not as good vs. LH starters (10-12, -9.16 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-185 vs CIN)
(979) SAN DIEGO (46-43) at (980) TEXAS (39-46)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (11-27 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(963) CHICAGO-AL (24-63) at (964) CLEVELAND (53-30)
Trend: CLE was 5-1 (+4.30 units) in divisional games last season with starter Gavin Williams
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-185 vs. CWS)
(965) HOUSTON (43-42) at (966) TORONTO (39-46)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 12-19 (-16.31 units) as a night home favorite in career
System Match: FADE TORONTO (*if they become a favorite, -108 currently*)
(975) BOSTON (45-39) at (976) MIAMI (30-55)
Trend: BOS is 5-1 (+4.85 units) on the road against NL with starter Brayan Bello
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-142 at MIA)
Trend: MIA is 9-31 (-19.41 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+120 vs. BOS)
(977) CINCINNATI (40-45) at (978) NEW YORK-AL (54-33)
Trend: CIN is 5-1 (+5.70 units) as a large underdog of +130 or more by starter Andrew Abbott in the last two seasons
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING CINCINNATI (+154 at NYY)
Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 1-9 (-16.35 units) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-185 vs. CIN)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Tue 7/2-Thu 7/4
Trend: Under the total is 14-6 (70%, +7.42 units) in the last 20 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 37.1%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Series #8: Milwaukee at Colorado, Mon 7/1-Thu 7/4
Trend: Home teams are 14-4 (77.8%, +9.84 units) in the last 18 games between Colorado and Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 54.7%
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+130 vs. MIL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, 7/5)
