Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Favorites are 14-1 (93.3%, +12.52 units) in the last 15 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 83.5%
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-130 vs NYM)
Trend: Favorites are 16-1 (94.1%, +13.4 units) in the last 17 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 78.8%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 vs MIL)
OAKLAND letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 10-18 (35.7%) -12.85 units, ROI: -45.9%
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+140 vs. BAL)
Trend: PHI is 2-11 (-9.10 units) in road Divisional games as a -110 or worse line with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasonsSystem Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+120 at ATL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 99-115 for -13.64 units. The three-game teams are 51-54 for -0.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (+140 vs. STL), FADE ARIZONA (-105 at SD)
3-games – FADE OAKLAND (+140 vs. BAL)
Trend: MIA goes Over at home (31-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-198 vs. MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-135 vs. CWS), PHILADELPHIA (+120 at ATL), SAN DIEGO (-115 vs. AZ)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: NYM-PIT, PHI-ATL, TOR-SEA, MIL-LAD
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well since a lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-130 vs. NYM), TEXAS (-112 vs. TB)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS -1.5 (vs. LAA), BALTIMORE -1.5 (at OAK)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units through 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: NY METS, ST LOUIS, ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, TEXAS, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, CHICAGO CUBS, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 190-222 record for -3.88 units (ROI -0.9%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 34-31 for +7.91 units over the last eighteen days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+110 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+164 at LAD), BOSTON (+120 at NYY), HOUSTON (+130 at MIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 168-169 record for +14.35 units (ROI 4.3%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+110 at PIT), BOSTON (+120 at NYY), HOUSTON (+130 at MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 99-115 for -13.64 units. The three-game teams are 51-54 for -0.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (+140 vs. STL), FADE ARIZONA (-105 at SD)
3-games – FADE OAKLAND (+140 vs. BAL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 118-103 for -5.79 units (-2.6% ROI) through Thursday 7/4.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+120 at NYY), CINCINNATI (-125 vs. DET)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 105 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/4 and these teams are 56-49 for +1.30 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI (-135 vs. CWS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1576-1463 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.21 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-162 vs. HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (-198 vs. LAA), TAMPA BAY (-108 at TEX), ARIZONA (-102 at SD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1462-1902 (43.4%) for -195.03 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (+110 at PIT), PHILADELPHIA (+120 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+164 at CHC)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3182-2775 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -401.19 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, MIAMI, CHICAGO CUBS, OAKLAND, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 897-772 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +22.65 units for backers and an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): OAKLAND (+160 vs. BAL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 449-387 (53.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +8.90 units, for an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+160 vs. BAL), LA DODGERS (-192 vs. MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 167-149 run (+45.63 units, ROI: 14.4%).
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+164 at CHC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE +164 (+20 diff), BOSTON +120 (+25 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +150 (+16 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -130 (+27 diff), ST LOUIS -166 (+20 diff), ATLANTA -142 (+32 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-COL OVER 10 (+1.0), MIL-LAD OVER 7.5 (+0.7), BOS-NYY OVER 8 (+0.5), HOU-MIN OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (42-43) at (952) PITTSBURGH (41-45)
Trend: PIT trending Under vs. RH starters (22-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (57-30) at (956) ATLANTA (47-38)
Trend: ATL trending Under at NIGHT (14-36 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(957) ARIZONA (43-44) at (958) SAN DIEGO (48-43)
Trend: H2H on a 5-2 Over run this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(959) MILWAUKEE (52-36) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (53-35)
Trend: MIL not as good vs. NL East/West (8-12, -5.44 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+164 at LAD)
(963) TAMPA BAY (44-43) at (964) TEXAS (39-48)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (12-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(965) HOUSTON (45-42) at (966) MINNESOTA (49-38)
Trend: HOU more Under at night (21-31 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(967) BALTIMORE (55-32) at (968) OAKLAND (33-56)
Trend: OAK not as good vs. AL East/Central (12-27, -7.82 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+160 vs BAL)
(969) TORONTO (39-48) at (970) SEATTLE (48-41)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (14-29 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-50) at (972) CHICAGO-NL (40-48)
Trend: LAA slight Over vs. LH starters (10-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(973) CHICAGO-AL (25-64) at (974) MIAMI (30-57)
Trend: MIA goes Over at home (31-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(975) SAN FRANCISCO (43-45) at (976) CLEVELAND (54-31)
Trend: CLE good at home (28-10, +11.99 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-175 vs SF)
(979) KANSAS CITY (48-41) at (980) COLORADO (30-57)
Trend: KC more Under on the road (14-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 10)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (42-43) at (952) PITTSBURGH (41-45)
Trend: Luis Severino is 22-6 (+15.55 units) against teams with a losing record in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+110 at PIT)
Trend: Luis Severino is 5-13 (-6.85 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+110 at PIT)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (57-30) at (956) ATLANTA (47-38)
Trend: PHI is 2-11 (-9.10 units) in road Divisional games as a -110 or worse line with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+120 at ATL)
Trend: PHI is 9-21 (-10.88 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+120 at ATL)
(959) MILWAUKEE (52-36) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (53-35)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 34-8 (+13.63 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons (including 20-4 (+7.70 units) in HOME starts)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-198 vs MIL)
(969) TORONTO (39-48) at (970) SEATTLE (48-41)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 3-7 (-3.81 units) as a road night underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+120 at SEA)
(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-50) at (972) CHICAGO-NL (40-48)
Trend: Justin Steele is 13-6 (+6.76 units) against teams with 45% or less win pct
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs. LAA)
(979) KANSAS CITY (48-41) at (980) COLORADO (30-57)
Trend: COL is 7-17 (-7.20 units) in the underdog line range of +125 to +150 with starter Kyle Freeland in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+150 vs. KC)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #12: NY Mets at Pittsburgh, Fri 7/5-Mon 7/8
Trend: FAVORITES are 14-1 (93.3%, +12.52 units) in the last 15 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 83.5%
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-130 vs NYM)
Series #13: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers, Fri 7/5-Sun 7/7
Trend: Favorites are 16-1 (94.1%, +13.4 units) in the last 17 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 78.8%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 vs. MIL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY METS
Letdown after series vs. WASHINGTON: 8-19 (29.6%) -19.60 units, ROI: -72.6%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 7/5 at Pittsburgh
System Matches: FADE NY METS (+110 at PIT)
OAKLAND
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 10-18 (35.7%) -12.85 units, ROI: -45.9%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 7/5 vs Baltimore
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+160 vs BAL)
