The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Favorites are 17-1 (94.4%, +15.52 units) in the last 18 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 86.2%
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-125 vs. NYM)

Trend: AZ trending Under vs. NL East/Central (10-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 898-773 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +22.65 units for backers and an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-162 vs. COL), LA ANGELS (+120 vs. TEX)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 176-177 record for +15.11 units (ROI 4.3%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-108 at WSH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-122 vs. NYM), ST LOUIS (-108 at WSH)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-125 vs. NYM)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): CINCINNATI (-1.5 vs. COL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units through 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, ST LOUIS, CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, TEXAS

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 198-232 record for -5.12 units (ROI -1.2%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 42-41 for +6.67 units over the last twenty-one days.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-108 at WSH)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 176-177 record for +15.11 units (ROI 4.3%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-108 at WSH)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 101-118 for -14.54 units. The three-game teams are 51-56 for -2.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY METS (+105 at PIT), FADE ARIZONA (+154 vs. ATL)
3-games – FADE DETROIT (+120 vs. CLE)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 108 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/7, and these teams are 58-50 for +2.18 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season.
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-162 vs. COL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1579-1472 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -176.74 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-142 at LAA), ARIZONA (+154 vs. ATL)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1467-1907 (43.5%) for -195.18 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): COLORADO (+136 at CIN)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3191-2788 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -410.09 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+120 vs. CLE), ARIZONA (+154 vs. ATL)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 898-773 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +22.65 units for backers and an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-162 vs. COL), LA ANGELS (+120 vs. TEX)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 452-388 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +10.90 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-122 vs. NYM), LA ANGELS (+120 vs. TEX)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA +154 (+30 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -125 (+32 diff), CINCINNATI -162 (+45 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-CIN OVER 9 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), CLE-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) NEW YORK-NL (44-44) at (902) PITTSBURGH (42-47)
Trend: NYM trending Over on the road (25-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(903) ST LOUIS (47-42) at (904) WASHINGTON (42-48)
Trend: STL trending Under during the day (14-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(905) COLORADO (32-58) at (906) CINCINNATI (42-48)
Trend: COL not as good vs. NL East/Central (9-23, -9.83 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+136 at CIN)

(907) ATLANTA (49-39) at (908) ARIZONA (45-45)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs. NL East/Central (10-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(911) MINNESOTA (51-39) at (912) CHICAGO-AL (26-66)
Trend: CWS bad in divisional play (7-23, -12.43 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+154 vs MIN)

(913) TEXAS (42-48) at (914) LOS ANGELES-AL (37-52)
Trend: LAA worse vs. RH starters (29-43, -9.13 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+120 vs TEX)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) NEW YORK-NL (44-44) at (902) PITTSBURGH (42-47)
Trend: PIT is 9-16 (-5.78 units) vs. NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-125 vs. NYM)

(909) CLEVELAND (56-32) at (910) DETROIT (42-48)
Trend: CLE is 5-2 (+1.92 units) in divisional games with starter Gavin Williams in last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-142 at DET)

Series #12: NY Mets at Pittsburgh, Fri 7/5-Mon 7/8
Trend: Favorites are 17-1 (94.4%, +15.52 units) in the last 18 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 86.2%
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-125 vs. NYM)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

ATLANTA 
Momentum after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 18-12 (60%) +5.9 units, ROI: 19.7%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 7/8 at Arizona
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-185 at AZ)

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