Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, July 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Jose Quintana is 16-3 (+12.10 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-135 vs. WSH)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024, these two-game teams have gone 107-127 for -16.63 units. The three-game teams are 53-56 for -0.34 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MIAMI (+190 at HOU), FADE TORONTO (+105 at SF)
3+ games – FADE DETROIT (+120 vs. CLE)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 267-220 (54.8%) for +44.17 units and an ROI of 9.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs. NYY)
Trend: MIL better at home (27-13, +11.41 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-166 vs. PIT)
Trend: BAL is 25-8 (+15.86 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-155 vs. CHC)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 UNITS and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-205 vs. OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-118 vs. KC), SEATTLE (-135 at SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-155 vs. CHC), KANSAS CITY (-102 at STL), HOUSTON (-230 vs. MIA), SEATTLE (-135 at SD), SAN FRANCISCO (-125 vs. TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: TOR-SF, PLAY UNDER in: ATL-AZ
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-1.5 vs. OAK), HOUSTON (-230 vs. MIA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 669-564 for -31.35 units. This is well below usual standards after a couple of losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, NY METS, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, TEXAS, BALTIMORE, ST LOUIS, SEATTLE, SAN FRANCISCO
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 60-36 for -16.88 units and a ROI of -17.6%.
System Matches (FADE BOTH): BOSTON (-205 vs. OAK), HOUSTON (-230 vs. MIA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 107-127 for -16.63 units. The three-game teams are 53-56 for -0.34 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MIAMI (+190 at HOU), FADE TORONTO (+105 at SF)
3+ games – FADE DETROIT (+120 vs. CLE)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 119-107 for -9.08 units (-4.0% ROI) through Monday, 7/8. Over the last two weeks, this system has taken a big hit (-12.24 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-115 at AZ), MINNESOTA (-162 at CWS), TEXAS (-175 at LAA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1580-1473 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -176.79 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-166 vs. PIT), KANSAS CITY (-102 at STL), TEXAS (-175 at LAA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1467-1908 (43.5%) for -196.18 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+114 at NYM), CLEVELAND (-142 at DET), NY YANKEES (-122 at TB), LA DODGERS (+120 at PHI), COLORADO (+145 at CIN)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3192-2789 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -409.94 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-118 vs. KC), BALTIMORE (-155 vs. CHC), MILWAUKEE (-166 vs. PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs. MIN), CINCINNATI (-175 vs. COL)
Home teams hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 899-774 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +22.65 units for backers and an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-105 vs. ATL), SAN DIEGO (+114 vs. SEA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 453-389 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +10.90 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-105 vs. ATL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 267-220 (54.8%) for +44.17 units and an ROI of 9.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs. NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY +102 (+16 diff), OAKLAND +170 (+25 diff), LA ANGELS +145 (+19 diff), CHICAGO CUBS +130 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -142 (+28 diff), MINNESOTA -162 (+22 diff), ST LOUIS -118 (+16 diff), SAN FRANCISCO -125 (+23 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-AZ OVER 7.5 (+0.8), TOR-SF OVER 7 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-BOS UNDER 10.5 (-1.2), WSH-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), CHC-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) LOS ANGELES-NL (55-36) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (58-32)
Trend: LAD just 1-3 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+120 at PHI)
(953) COLORADO (32-59) at (954) CINCINNATI (43-48)
Trend: COL bad vs. NL Central/East (9-24, -10.83 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+145 at CIN)
(955) WASHINGTON (42-49) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (44-45)
Trend: WSH more Under vs. LH starters (7-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(957) PITTSBURGH (43-47) at (958) MILWAUKEE (53-38)
Trend: MIL better at home (27-13, +11.41 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-166 vs PIT)
(959) ATLANTA (50-39) at (960) ARIZONA (45-46)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. NL Central/West (9-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(963) NEW YORK-AL (55-37) at (964) TAMPA BAY (44-46)
Trend: NYY better vs. RH starters (45-24, +12.68 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-122 at TB)
(965) OAKLAND (34-58) at (966) BOSTON (49-40)
Trend: OAK bad on the road (12-33, -11.01 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+170 at BOS)
(967) MINNESOTA (52-39) at (968) CHICAGO-AL (26-67)
Trend: CWS bad in divisional play (7-24, -13.43 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs. MIN)
(969) TEXAS (43-48) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (37-53)
Trend: LAA worse vs. RH starters (29-44, -10.13 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+145 vs TEX)
(971) CHICAGO-NL (42-49) at (972) BALTIMORE (57-33)
Trend: CHC more Under vs. AL teams (6-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(973) KANSAS CITY (49-43) at (974) ST LOUIS (48-42)
Trend: KC not as good on the road (18-25, -8.50 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-102 at STL)
(975) MIAMI (32-58) at (976) HOUSTON (46-44)
Trend: MIA trending Under on the road (14-27 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(977) SEATTLE (49-43) at (978) SAN DIEGO (49-45)
Trend: SD trending Over at home (30-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(979) TORONTO (41-49) at (980) SAN FRANCISCO (44-47)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (10-18, -10.78 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-125 vs TOR)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) COLORADO (32-59) at (954) CINCINNATI (43-48)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is profitable in +135 to +145 line range (9-5 record, +7.55 units) in the last four seasons
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING COLORADO (+145 at CIN)
Trend: CIN is 16-8 (+7.94 units) at home with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-175 at COL)
(955) WASHINGTON (42-49) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (44-45)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 16-3 (+12.10 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-135 vs WSH)
(961) CLEVELAND (56-33) at (962) DETROIT (43-48)
Trend: Kenta Maeda is 13-5 (+8.64 units) in the last 18 night games
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+120 vs CLE)
(971) CHICAGO-NL (42-49) at (972) BALTIMORE (57-33)
Trend: BAL is 25-8 (+15.86 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-155 vs CHC)(975) MIAMI (32-58) at (976) HOUSTON (46-44)
Trend: MIA is 11-26 (-10.49 units) on the road with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+190 at HOU)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 15-14 (51.7%) -10.14 units, ROI: -35%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 7/9 at Tampa Bay
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-122 at TB)
