Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, June 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): CLEVELAND (-155 vs WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-155 vs STL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This angle is so far 26-18 since opening day 2024 and has lost -13.3 units, a season-long ROI of -30.2%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-310 vs COL)
Trend: CIN is 5-15 (-10.92 units) vs. Divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene (including 2-9 (-7.10 units) on the ROAD)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+120 at CHC)
Trend: Justin Steele is 12-6 (+5.76 units) against teams with 45% or less win pct
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs CIN)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 254-210 (54.7%) for +41.23 units and an ROI of 8.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+102 vs SD)
Trend: NY Mets are 21-4 (84%, +16.65 units) in last 25 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 66.6%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-135 vs AZ)
Trend: Detroit is 2-11 (15.4%, -8.28 units) in last 13 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -63.7%
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (-112 at BOS)
Strategies using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this “super” majority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 UNITS and a ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): CLEVELAND (-155 vs WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-155 vs STL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority BETS groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not TOO MANY of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 UNITS and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-112 at BOS), HOUSTON (-130 vs MIN), KANSAS CITY (+102 vs SD), CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge HOME FAVORITES of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 UNITS and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-310 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority HANDLE bettors were worse overall in INTERLEAGUE GAMES in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 UNITS and a ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TEXAS, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, KANSAS CITY, NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority HANDLE bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 UNITS and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is OVER bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: MIN-HOU, STL-PHI, LAA-SEA, NYY-SF, COL-LAD
PLAY UNDER in: TB-BAL, OAK-ATL, CWS-MIL, CIN-CHC
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority HANDLE betting groups backed HOME FAVORITES with LESS WINS on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE NY METS (-135 vs AZ)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the BETS was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 UNITS and a ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA RL, MILWAUKEE RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru 5/26, they are 400-329 for -4.34 units. This is below usual standards and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: ARIZONA, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, TORONTO, MIAMI, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, NY YANKEES
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A ’23 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the ’24 season thus far, the record of this angle is negative but improving at 50-21 for -1.42 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-310 vs COL), PLAY ATLANTA (-310 vs OAK)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the ’23 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 26-18 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -13.3 units, a season long ROI of -30.2%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-310 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced a 135-155 record for +1.39 units (ROI 0.5%). This angle has settled in lately.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+114 at NYM), CINCINNATI (+120 at CHC), BOSTON (-108 vs DET), MIAMI (-110 vs TEX), NY YANKEES (-105 at SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 120-117 record, for +15.16 units (ROI 6.4%). This is an angle I will be watching more closely going forward.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+114 at NYM), CINCINNATI (+120 at CHC), BOSTON (-108 vs DET), MIAMI (-110 vs TEX), NY YANKEES (-105 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 72-77 for +0.39 units. The 3-game teams are 38-38 for +2.90 units. Both of these angles are unusually profitable and I will continue to watch them closely to validate their usefulness.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY METS (-135 vs AZ), FADE COLORADO (+250 at LAD), FADE MINNESOTA (+110 at HOU)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak are 79-67 for +0.60 units (0.4% ROI) thru Friday 5/31.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-155 vs PIT), MILWAUKEE (-162 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-105 at SF)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 82 plays on this angle so far in ’24 through 5/31 and these teams are 42-40 for -4.39 units.
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (+114 at NYM)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1526-1418 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -167.86 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (+114 at NYM), NY METS (-135 vs AZ), SAN DIEGO (-122 at KC), MILWAUKEE (-162 vs CWS)
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1403-1832 (43.4%) for -189.49 units and a R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+124 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+140 at BAL), TEXAS (-110 at MIA), WASHINGTON (+130 at CLE), OAKLAND (+250 at ATL)
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3073-2683 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -399.71 units and a R.O.I. of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, MIAMI, NY METS, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 254-210 (54.7%) for +41.23 units and an R.O.I. of 8.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+102 vs SD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more are on a 25-71 skid (-29.50 units, ROI -30.7%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 48-97 skid (-24.69 units, ROI: -17%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 59-122 (-47.78 units, ROI: -26.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 83-70 outright (+3.40 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (+114 at NYM)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 151-137 run (+37.95 units, ROI: 13.2%).
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (+114 at NYM)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 120-123 (+13.21 units, ROI: 5.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (+114 at NYM)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +120 (+30 diff), COLORADO +250 (+40 diff), MINNESOTA +110 (+16 diff), OAKLAND +250 (+41 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -166 (+28 diff), MILWAUKEE -162 (+40 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-NYM OVER 8 (+0.6), CIN-CHC OVER 7 (+0.8), STL-PHI OVER 7 (+1.1), TB-BAL OVER 7.5 (+0.9), MIN-HOU OVER 7.5 (+1.0), LAA-SEA OVER 7 (+0.7), WSH-CLE OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) ARIZONA (25-32) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (24-33)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs non-divisional teams (12-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(953) CINCINNATI (25-32) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (28-30)
Trend: CIN not great vs. LH starters (7-11, -5.68 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+120 at CHC)
(955) ST LOUIS (27-28) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (40-18)
Trend: PHI dominant vs. RH starters (26-7, +14.63 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-155 vs STL)
(957) COLORADO (21-35) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (36-23)
Trend: LAD not as good bet in divisional play (11-10, -8.10 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-310 vs COL)
(959) TAMPA BAY (28-30) at (960) BALTIMORE (36-19)
Trend: BAL good start vs. divisional teams (10-3, +3.90 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-166 vs TB)
(961) DETROIT (28-29) at (962) BOSTON (29-29)
Trend: BOS better during the day (13-8, +4.46 units)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-108 vs DET)
(963) MINNESOTA (32-25) at (964) HOUSTON (25-33)
Trend: MIN pretty good vs. LH starters (10-6, +3.29 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+110 at HOU)
(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (21-36) at (966) SEATTLE (32-27)
Trend: LAA horrible vs. RH starters (13-32, -17.00 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+140 at SEA)
(967) PITTSBURGH (26-31) at (968) TORONTO (27-29)
Trend: PIT hasn’t been good vs. AL teams this year (5-12, -9.57 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+130 at TOR)
(969) TEXAS (27-30) at (970) MIAMI (21-37)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (21-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(971) OAKLAND (23-36) at (972) ATLANTA (32-23)
Trend: ATL heavy Under vs. AL teams (1-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(973) WASHINGTON (26-30) at (974) CLEVELAND (38-19)
Trend: CLE solid vs. LH starters (11-3, +7.57 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-155 vs WSH)
(975) CHICAGO-AL (15-43) at (976) MILWAUKEE (34-23)
Trend: CWS horrible on the road (5-22, -13.32 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+130 at MIL)
(979) NEW YORK-AL (40-19) at (980) SAN FRANCISCO (29-29)
Trend: NYY slight Under at night (14-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) CINCINNATI (25-32) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (28-30)
Trend: CIN is 5-15 (-10.92 units) vs Divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene (including 2-9 (-7.10 units) on the ROAD)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+120 at CHC)
Trend: Justin Steele is 12-6 (+5.76 units) against teams with 45% or less win percentage
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs CIN)
(955) ST LOUIS (27-28) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (40-18)
Trend: PHI is 12-3 (+7.20 units) vs. NL Central teams with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-155 vs STL)
(957) COLORADO (21-35) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (36-23)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 4-12 (-4.81 units) as an underdog of +150 or more in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+250 at LAD)
(959) TAMPA BAY (28-30) at (960) BALTIMORE (36-19)
Trend: TB was 2-9 (-7.57 units) as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) with Taj Bradley last season (1-1, +0.10 unit this season)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+140 at BAL)
Trend: BAL is 4-10 (-7.51 units) in home divisional starts by Kyle Bradish
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-166 vs TB)
(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (21-36) at (966) SEATTLE (32-27)
Trend: LAA is 5-1 (+6.20 units) vs. Seattle with starter Reid Detmers
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+140 at SEA)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Thu 5/30-Sun 8/14
Trend: NY Mets are 21-4 (84%, +16.65 units) in the last 25 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 66.6%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-135 vs AZ)
Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Thu 5/30-Sun 6/2
Trend: Detroit is 2-11 (15.4%, -8.28 units) in the last 13 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -63.7%
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (-112 at BOS)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one 6/6)
